NSW redistribution – map complete

By
Ben Raue
-
38

I’ve now completed the Google Earth map of the draft federal electoral boundaries for New South Wales.

Download the map here.

I’ve also produced a fusion table combining the map with the notional estimates of the two-party-preferred margin and primary votes for Labor, Coalition, Greens and others in the 47 new electorates.

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38 COMMENTS

  3. The SMH is reporting that Albanese may switch to Barton. If he did in fact switch (which he should win easily, given the new boundaries for it are notionally safe for the ALP), it would be quite interesting to see how the Green vote would change (a -2% swing from boundaries isn’t really much, and Albanese has a lot of personal support in the electorate that may not be emulated for any ALP successor candidate).

  5. Hey sorry about that, I’ve now updated the link. The link on the maps page was working but I’d provide my private link on this page for some reason.

  7. Read that Bowen wants Fowler, & Chris Hayes wants to stay. Labor are starting to look like they are playing musical chairs !!!. Michele Rowland will be next. She will probably want Werriwa. i wonder if Laurie is ready to go ???.
    If Bowen is rewarded for his cowardice, labor deserve to be punished severely. If i were a labor voter in Mc Mahon i’d vote against them for 2 compelling reason alone
    1/ the PORK !!!!. if the libs got this they’d spend BIG to try & consolidate it. They are the govt. & as always , it’s not their money anyway!!!!. If Mc Mahon is an opposition held seat the money will go else where, as always.
    2/ Send a message to labor. Although they are seemly immune, blind & deaf to all communication.

  9. Goosh Goosh
    Thanks for that. Maybe Chris Hayes will be the (very old !! ) prodigal son,in a miraculous return to Werriwa !!. Or perhaps there will be a good old fight to the death, as only labor can !!!! Michelle looks as if she has the required mongrel to win. Bet her hubby doesn’t take her on much !!!.

  10. As an aside, I see that the WA boundaries have been finalised. Virtually no change from the proposed boundaries, which was a bit of a surprise. There were a few things that I thought they would change (e.g. Collie going back into Forrest, Kingsley going back into Cowan) that they left alone.

    Only changes were North Fremantle going back into Fremantle, and Wandering going back into O’Connor.

  11. Winediamond,

    Labor would be at genuine risk of losing this new McMahon on current polling. We see at state level that the area has begun electing Liberal MPs. It makes zero sense for a legitimate high flyer like Bowen to be risked in a marginal seat, while dead wood like Laurie Ferguson clutter up much safer seats.

    Bowen to Fowler (safe seat for life) and either Hayes or some young rising star to Werriwa is a good outcome for the NSW ALP.

  13. Mark Mulcair
    i agree completely with you,about Mc Mahon. However i’m no fan of Bowen, a political animal, & grand hypocrite if ever there was one. He is labor’s problem, not it’s solution.
    As Goosh Goosh said above Laurie is already moving on. Chris Hayes is a perfect example of political deadwood, with impeccable ex union credentials.His brother is head of some major union, like Brendan O’ Connor’s brother is head of the CFMEU. This is a union that ought to have been expelled from Labor yesterday. This is the embodiment of conflict of interest. The interest compromised is the national interest, not the union’s…

  15. Mick Q
    In that case, maybe they really do believe that the ONLY reason labor lost the last election was their disunity !!!.
    The truest definition of a fool, is one who knows not, that they know not !!

  16. Btw wine diamond just I case you missed it your mates showed disunity recently, even having the deputy back another horse. No one owns disunity because of your lot now. Also changing seats as a result of redistribution isn’t new, Peter dutton wanting to go all the way to the Gold Coast to save his back side, atleast Bowen wants to be in the same region next door if he moves. As far as Bowens move goes he was the mayor of Fairfield which would be moving to fowler and Albo lives in Marrickville which is being moved to Barton.

  17. Observer
    My lot !!!????. The LDP do you mean ??.
    The goal of ” unity” is usually code for crushing debate. Hence the trade unions are wonderfully “united !!!!” Most thinking people regard “disunity” as fundamentally democratic !!!.Imagine that !!!. Stalin did very well using executions to achieve “unity” , so where is your problem !!!??? Abbott’s demise was particularly well “executed” , & appears to have achieved, a great deal of unity !!!.
    My point ( Which eluded you COMPLETELY) was not that labor lost the last election through disunity. But that they are TOTALLY BLIND to the great many other reasons they lost the election
    Every criticism i make of the left applies especially to generally rusted on fools like you personally
    If you really want to do your “side” some good, start opening your eyes, ears, & mind. Accepting legitimate criticism, & taking corrective action is the only possible future for the left.
    BTW. i’m no fan of Dutton, & i am well aware of all those other “facts” you mentioned. It still changes nothing, & i reiterate everything i’ve said.

  18. I submitted some major Objections, so let’s see if they get up:

    * I have put Drummoyne back in Reid, so Marrickville can be reunited in Grayndler. Hurstville/Roselands into Barton, all of Padstow/Revesby etc into Banks, with Auburn going into Blaxland. This tidies up most of the messy boundaries in this area in one hit.

    * I put all the Southern Highlands into Hume, so the seat doesn’t need to push right up into Sydney. Cunningham gets pushed into Sutherland Shire again, with Hughes taking Glenfield and Casula. Werriwa and Macarthur then push south and re-gain some of their lost territory. The Nepean River makes a good boundary between “rural” Hume and “urban” Macarthur, so I’ve tried to utilise that.

  19. Mark Mulcair
    Well done. As i’ve said before i admire your’e perseverance. However the AEC seem to be reluctant to adopt any improvements to their god like stance. i look forward to seeing your submission. cheers WD

  20. Over 700 Objections (!). The poor AEC has to release them in sections because there’s too many of them.

    This will be fun…..

  21. It looks like Nick Varvaris has been running a letter-writing campaign against the changes to Barton. There’s a large number of submissions which are form letters objecting to moving their suburbs from Barton into Cook – interestingly most appear to be from people with Greek names.

  22. Will be interesting to see if we see something like we saw in Victoria where they have to do another redraw and then the process restarts again. 700+ objections is an awful lot.

  23. About 95% of them are just form letter type Objections, about a handful of boundaries.

    It will be interesting to see if they do end up re-drawing the North Coast and Hunter, in which case they might need to restart the process again.

  24. Yeah true, but aren’t most of the objections about including Port Macquarie and Coffs Harbour in the same district and having Cook crossing the Cooks River and outside the Shire? That would be hard to address without some radical changes.

  25. In both cases there is an alternative but there would be knock-on effects for a large number of seats. If you want to reverse the changes to Port Macquarie you would have knock-on affects on Page, New England, Paterson and possibly another Hunter seat.

    If you want to push Cook back into Sutherland there would be knock-on effects for Banks, Hughes, possibly for Fowler and Blaxland too. And if you actually want to not push Barton into Marrickville there would be knock-on effects for Watson, Reid and Grayndler too.

    So I think you’re right, neither of those changes is possible.

  26. The North Coast change can be made by pushing Page over the mountains. This actually does fix alot of the problems in the Hunter and North Coast. I didn’t support this strategy at the time, but having seen what the Committee did, I am coming around to it.

    The Liberal party have written pages and pages of Objection to Cook crossing the river, but then basically admit at the end of it all that they have no solution. So I doubt that will get up.

    My own Objection provides a very neat way to tidy up all of the inner West (Barton, Banks, Reid, Grayndler, etc) in one hit, so I am really hoping that that one gets looked at seriously.

  27. Labor has structured their objections to remove Goulburn from Hume, creating a seat with 65% seperated from the remaining population centres by over 200 km.
    I’m sure that will get up.

  29. Unlike their more reasonable proposals, Labor didn’t even include a map of their proposed Hume. It would have really emphasised how disconnected the two ends are.

  30. With the population numbers in the Sutherland Shire, isn’t possible to not have either Hughes or Cook cross the river. I have to say I do like Mark Mulcair’s solution for the inner west though.

  31. The final boundaries have been decided.

    The controversial proposals in the Inner West have largely been reversed (as I hoped they would!). So Grayndler takes back Marrickville, Drummoyne goes back into Reid, and more of Hurstville into Barton. Basically, they agreed almost in full with my proposal.

    They put Kings Cross in Sydney and returned Paddington Sth and Moore Park to Wentworth. Again, this was something I proposed.

    Labor’s proposal to shore up Chris Bowen was upheld, with Fairfield going back into McMahon.

    The Hunter and North Coast was left as originally proposed. All the objections to seats in this area failed.

    I was disappointed that they didn’t return Camden to Macarthur, although they’ve made some small adjustments in the Southern Highlands (between Hume and Whitlam), and in north-west NSW (between Parkes, Farrer, and Riverina).

  32. Oh good! I’m still in Banks as proposed. Although Banks is probably less competitive now without Hurstville. But the M5 is a much better boundary than the train line.

    Barton would still be Labor-ish (perhaps slightly less so?) swapping Hurstville for Marrickville.

    I guess that means Albo stays in Grayndler, which is diminished as a Greens target.

    Reid more Liberal-ish with Drummoyne restored.

    No maps until 25 Feb. Erk.

  33. I’m not so sure about Albo staying in Grayndler. There’s still about 14,000 Grayndler voters shifting to Barton (down from 25,000 on the previous boundaries) – substantial parts of Marrickville and Dulwich Hill along with Tempe will still go to Barton.

  34. the major change is Reid better for Libs,……. will be interesting to see maps
    Banks appears to roughly similar to proposals slightly better for the libs

  35. Turns out I was wrong about Banks. The changes largely offset. It’s actually the most marginal Liberal seat in the state (excluding three Lib held seats now on the Labor side of the pendulum, two of which have smaller margins.)

    That Russell Matheson wants to flee Macarthur is surprising, given it still has a ~3% Lib margin. Less surprising is that Joel Fitzgibbon doesn’t want to contest the marginal Paterson, what with Labor’s current standing in the polls.

    (Sorry for the account switching, the other one is moderated for some reason.)

  36. Overall this has worked out better for Labor, even though a few headaches have arisen, these will be sorted out inevitably. Reid looks a lot safer for the Libs and I would expect it to keep moving in that fashion.
    Finally, what would be the result for Richmond on state election results, these were calculated for Grayndler and Sydney due to the strong Green vote so I’m curious what the Green primary vote would be on state results.

  37. Liam, the federal seat of Richmond basically covers the state seats of Tweed and Ballina. So you can basically just average out the results for those two state seats from 2015, to get a reasonable estimate.

  38. Mark, as you’d understand its a tad more complex then that. Turns out there was about 15 booths in Lismore that are in Richmond, also there is 4 booths in Ballina that are in Page.
    In the end, I have crunched the numbers and on state results The Nationals are 39.90, Labor 29.65 and the Greens 20.66. In comparison to 38.88 (Nat), 34.51 (ALP) and 15.43 (Green).
    I decided not to do the 2PP because Tweed was (Nat – ALP) whilst Ballina and Lismore were (Nat – Green), also the optional preferential system adds another level of difficulty.

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