South Island regional summary – NZ 2014

0
ElectorateMarginElectorateMargin
Clutha-Southland NAT 52.06% vs LAB Rangitata NAT 17.09% vs LAB
Dunedin North LAB 9.12% vs NAT Selwyn NAT 55.77% vs LAB
Dunedin South LAB 12.12% vs NAT Waimakariri NAT 3.02% vs LAB
Invercargill NAT 19.79% vs LAB Waitaki NAT 37.34% vs LAB
Kaikōura NAT 34.54% vs LAB West Coast-Tasman LAB 7.66% vs NAT
Nelson NAT 20.51% vs LAB

Southisland-region-mapLocal electorates

There are sixteen electorates on the South Island. This post covers the eleven seats that are outside of the Christchurch urban area.

Three of these seats are held by Labour, and eight are held by National.

The Labour Party holds both Dunedin seats: Dunedin North and Dunedin South. These two seats are both reasonably marginal but are unlikely to change hands. Labour also holds West Coast-Tasman, which stretches along most of the west coast of the South Island. That seat is also reasonably marginal, with a 7.7% margin.

National holds two safe seats north of Christchurch: Kaikōura and Nelson. The National seat of Waimakariri, immediately north of Christchurch, is on a slim 3% margin.

The seats of RangitataSelwyn and Waitaki, which all lie between Christchurch and Dunedin, are also safe National seats.

South of Dunedin, National holds two more safe seats: Clutha-Southland and Invercargill.

Redistribution

Changes to most seats were relatively minor. No changes were made to Clutha-Southland, Dunedin South, Invercargill, Kaikōura, Nelson and West Coast-Tasman.

Assessment

This region is relatively strong for the National Party (3-5% above national vote), and relatively weak for Labour (1-2% below national vote).

The Green Party performed strongly on the South Island – outpolling their national electorate vote by 2% and the national party vote by 1.2%. The Green Party did even better in Christchurch, producing a very strong overall result across the island.

New Zealand First polled slightly less in the South Island than their overall result.

2011 election results

Electorate VotesParty Votes
PartyVotes%SwingRedistVotes%SwingRedist
National 196,89052.95+0.8252.78194,58351.22+4.4350.96
Labour 125,35633.71-3.4233.7894,84024.96-9.1625.04
Green 33,6349.05+3.749.1546,26112.18+4.5712.29
New Zealand First3,5130.94+0.410.9022,0525.80+2.155.84
Conservative4,2331.14+1.141.119,9312.61+2.612.61
ACT New Zealand3,0620.82-0.780.853,6540.96-1.980.97
United Future1,2520.34-0.140.353,1020.82-0.100.82
Legalise Cannabis8480.23-0.050.242,1150.56+0.140.57
Māori1,4730.39-0.100.39
Mana7270.19+0.190.19
Democrats1,5380.41+0.280.436330.17+0.070.17
Alliance3520.09-0.130.102960.08-0.060.08
Libertarianz2640.07+0.040.072350.06+0.030.06
Others8800.24-1.900.25
Liked it? Take a second to support the Tally Room on Patreon!