North Island regional summary – NZ 2014

0
ElectorateMarginElectorateMargin
Bay of Plenty NAT 49.69% vs LAB Rangitīkei NAT 29.55% vs LAB
Coromandel NAT 37.86% vs LAB Rotorua NAT 29.06% vs LAB
East Coast NAT 16.65% vs LAB Taranaki-King Country NAT 50.82% vs LAB
Hamilton East NAT 24.37% vs LAB Taupō NAT 42.92% vs LAB
Hamilton West NAT 13.97% vs LAB Tauranga NAT 48.56% vs LAB
Napier NAT 11.81% vs LAB Tukituki NAT 29.12% vs LAB
New Plymouth NAT 14.44% vs LAB Waikato NAT 47.23% vs LAB
Ōtaki NAT 14.02% vs LAB Wairarapa NAT 21.01% vs LAB
Palmerston North LAB 10.2% vs NAT Whanganui NAT 16.93% vs LAB

Northisland-region-mapLocal electorates

This post covers those parts of the North Island south of Auckland and North of Wellington. There are eighteen electorates in this area. Four of these electorates are relatively small urban electorates: Hamilton East, Hamilton West, Palmerston North and Tauranga.

Seventeen of these seats are held by the National Party. The only exception is Palmerston North, held by the Labour Party by a 10.2% margin. The National Party has suggested they are hoping to win this seat, but the seat is not one of the most marginal Labour seats.

A number of other seats were held by the Labour Party until 2008: Hamilton West, New PlymouthŌtaki, Rotorua and Taupō.

The seats of East Coast, Hamilton East, Napier, Tukituki, Wairarapa and Whanganui were held by the Labour Party up until the 2005 election.

Two other seats were held by minor parties in the past fifteen years. Tauranga was held by New Zealand First leader Winston Peters from 1984 until 2008. Coromandel was held by Green Party co-leader Jeanette Fitzsimons from 1999 to 2002. Both of these seats are now safe National seats.

The remaining seats of Bay of PlentyRangitīkei, Taranaki-King Country and Waikato are all extremely safe National seats.

None of the seats in this region are ultra-marginal, but quite a few seats are held by margins that could be small enough to fall if the Labour Party was in an election-winning position. These seats include East Coast, Napier, New Plymouth, Ōtaki and Whanganui.

Redistribution

Most electorates in this region underwent subtle changes. The southern boundary of this area (on the border of the Wellington region) underwent no changes, and the electorates of Palmerston North, Taupō, Tukituki and Wairarapa all stayed exactly the same.

Assessment

North Island is a strong area for the National Party and relatively weak for Labour and the Greens. The National Party polled 5-9% above the nationwide result, while Labour polled 4-6% below the nationwide average.

The Green Party polled below their nationwide result, while New Zealand First and the Conservative Party outpolled their nationwide result.

2011 election results

Electorate VotesParty Votes
PartyVotes%SwingRedistVotes%SwingRedist
National 331,78656.60+0.0856.52313,76152.17+1.6952.05
Labour 174,65629.79-2.5729.69138,10722.96-7.1222.86
Green 33,6855.75+1.625.7556,4969.39+3.799.40
New Zealand First21,1183.60+0.083.6050,6248.42+3.078.40
Conservative15,1642.59+2.592.5921,0223.50+3.53.49
ACT New Zealand2,5390.43-0.800.446,9531.16-2.531.15
United Future1,7460.30-0.220.464,2520.71-0.210.87
Māori1230.02+0.020.034,0120.67-0.240.75
Legalise Cannabis1,4980.26+0.260.253,0880.51+0.140.52
Mana1,5690.27+0.270.271,9640.33+0.330.32
Libertarianz6520.11-0.020.114650.08+0.020.08
Democrats4940.08-0.050.083900.06-0.010.07
Alliance480.01-0.020.012550.04-0.030.04
Others1,1530.20-1.240.21
Liked it? Take a second to support the Tally Room on Patreon!