Indi has been the seat that has been the most interesting seat during the first week of counting. Cathy McGowan has led for most of the week, but was on track to fall behind before an additional 1003 votes that had not been correctly entered were found, and expanded her lead.
Cathy McGowan’s margin is now 837 votes. Most of the postal votes have now been counted, and these substantially helped Mirabella. Only small batches of absentee and prepoll votes have been counted. At the moment, Mirabella has a 56.5% lead in prepoll votes and McGowan has a 54.52% lead in absentee votes. There is, however, a lot more prepoll votes to come in, which should mean that Mirabella will narrow the gap further as they are counted.
|Type of vote||IND %||LIB %||To be counted|
I estimate that if the current trends continue in the remaining votes in the three major categories (and the 377 provisional votes split evenly), then Sophie Mirabella will gain an additional 507 votes, narrowing the gap to 330 votes.
At this point, it’s a bit too close to comfortably say McGowan will win. Of course, it’s possible McGowan will pick up ground in the next batch of prepoll votes. Less than 700 of these prepoll votes have been counted, which is too little to be sure that they are representative of the entire sample. It’s also possible Mirabella will pick up ground on both absentee and prepoll votes and win, but she would need to do a lot better.
Now let’s turn our attention to the geographical breakdown of results. Again, I have used the same geographic divisions as I did in my pre-election profile. The biggest city in the electorate, Wodonga, has its own subdivision, as does the rural council area of Indigo immediately south of Wodonga. The next biggest city, Wangaratta, makes up 4465 out of the 11,190 votes in the ‘west’ subdivision.
|Voter Group||GRN %||ALP %||IND %||LIB %||IND 2PP||Total votes||% of ordinary votes|
Cathy McGowan won majorities in the west, Wodonga and Indigo. Sophie Mirabella won majorities in the south and east, as well as a majority of other votes.
The ‘other votes’ category doesn’t just include the categories discussed above. Since 2010, prepoll votes cast at regular prepoll centres within the electorate are counted on election night as ordinary votes, and are counted in the list of booths. These prepoll votes varied between booths. Over 16,000 votes were cast at the Wangaratta and Wodonga prepoll centres, and McGowan won slim majorities at both of those booths. Overall, McGowan won a majority in all of the ‘other votes’ before you include the 7720 postal votes counted so far – these went to Mirabella so strongly that she wins that category.
McGowan did particularly well in the big cities of Wangaratta and Wodonga. While McGowan won a slim 51.5% majority in the west of the electorate, that actually included a 56.7% majority in the four Wangaratta booths and only 48.1% in the other 26 booths in the area.
After the fold are maps of the results across the electorate, including special maps for Wodonga and Wangaratta.