Behind yesterday’s profile seat of Barton, Capricornia is the second-closest seat in the country, with the ALP’s Peter Freeleagus currently leading by 156 votes.
Capricornia is Labor’s only Queensland seat outside of Brisbane, and was expected to fall with the loss of Kirsten Livermore’s personal vote. Currently the swing has been limited to 3.57%, but the addition of postal, prepoll and absentee votes is likely to favour the LNP.
For my analysis I have broken up the electorate into the same four areas as I did prior to the election.
|Voter Group||PUP %||KAP %||ALP 2PP %||LNP swing||Total votes||% of ordinary votes|
The LNP won a majority vote in the north of the electorate with a solid 5% swing. In the rural parts of Rockhampton LGA, which was the only area the LNP won in 2010, the party won its smallest swing of less than 2%, and three booths saw small swings to Labor.
The least populous part of the electorate, Isaacs, was previously the most pro-Labor area, and is still narrowly pro-Labor but experienced a huge 11.8% swing to the LNP.
Almost half of ordinary votes were cast in Rockhampton’s urban area. A small LNP swing of 2.2% saw the ALP still win 54.5% of the vote, which made Rockhampton the strongest part of the seat for Labor.
Below the fold are two-party-preferred percentage maps and swing maps for Capricornia.