Tony Abbott’s Liberal/National Coalition has been elected, but without a sweeping landslide as previously predicted.
So far the Coalition has gained eleven seats off the ALP, as well as two off retiring independents:
- Banks, NSW
- Bass, TAS
- Braddon, TAS
- Corangamite, VIC
- Deakin, VIC
- Hindmarsh, SA
- La Trobe, VIC
- Lindsay, NSW
- Lyne, NSW
- Lyons, TAS
- New England, NSW
- Page, NSW
- Robertson, NSW
Not a single Queensland seat has fallen, although two Labor seats in that state remain in play. The ALP has lost three of their four seats in Tasmania, while losing one seat in Adelaide and a string of seats in Victoria and New South Wales. The Liberal Party has also regained the seat of O’Connor off the WA Nationals.
There are also nine seats which the ABC considers to still be in doubt which are races between Labor and the Coalition:
- Barton, NSW
- Capricornia, QLD
- Dobell, NSW
- Eden-Monaro, NSW
- McEwen, VIC
- Parramatta, NSW
- Petrie, QLD
- Reid, NSW
- Solomon, NT
This situation is very different to the 2010 election, when most seats were decided on the night and there were very few seats on extremely slim margins.
Solomon is held by the Country Liberal Party, and has seen a swing to the ALP, but the other eight are all Labor-held, and four of those eight have a Liberal or LNP candidate in the lead.
Overall, the ABC is predicting 89 seats for the Coalition, 57 for the ALP and four seats for crossbenchers (Bandt, Wilkie, Katter, Palmer).
The election result is a solid defeat for Labor, although not substantially worse than many that Labor suffered under the Howard government. The result was the third-biggest election defeat in terms of seats in the last thirty years: behind the change-of-government elections in 1983 and 1996.
Looking at two-party-preferred figures, the result is about even with 1983 and 1996.
Labor’s performance varied significantly between states. The ALP has held on to almost all of its seats in Queensland, with two in doubt. The ALP suffered the biggest swing in Tasmania, losing three out of four Labor seats. The ALP has fallen from holding all five Tasmanian seats in Kevin Rudd’s first term to now only holding Franklin.
Swings of 5-6% were felt in Victoria and South Australia, which along with Tasmania were states that were strongest for Julia Gillard in 2010. The swing in NSW was limited to less than 3%, with swings of roughly 1% in Queensland and Western Australia.
While the result has been a landslide, many of the disastrous election results for Labor have been avoided. NSW seats like Werriwa, McMahon and Kingsford Smith have been protected, along with Queensland seats such as Griffith, Lilley, Rankin and Oxley. Predictions about Labor losing all three seats in Western Australia have failed to come true. Labor remarkably held on Greenway.
After the fold, I have posted maps of the key areas where seats have changed. Seats gained by the Liberal and National parties are respectively shown in dark blue and green, with undecided seats in white. You can download the electoral maps for Google Earth with updated party colours from the maps page.