Day 26: campaign open thread

161

While the campaign has been fiercely fought, there hasn’t seemed to be much for myself to add in terms of blog posts on the front page.

The conversation has been continuing fiercely on the previous election thread and on each seat’s discussions. Almost 2500 comments have been posted throughout August.

Please use this thread to continue discussing the election campaign over this last weekend of the campaign.

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161 COMMENTS

  1. Rockman: Yes, I am always going to correct someone who either intentionally or lazily misrepresents what I post.

    I might have taken it as sarcasm but given that you have been talking up the PUP candidates “the PUP candidates have worked very hard to gain a public profile and will have people handing out HTV cards at every booth.” as opposed to objectively commenting on their reported rise in vote what you wrote did fit a pattern. Anyway, no big problem.

    GWVs has tweeted that Galaxy is as it was last time;
    “GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 55s
    #Galaxy Poll 2 Party Preferred: ALP 47 (0) L/NP 53 (0) #ausvotes”

    Thus, todays polls for the Coalition are –
    53 from Galaxy
    52 from Essential
    53 from ReachTEL

    The blow out to 55% that some Coalition supporters were talking up a week to 2 ago seems unlikely. The best the ALP can hope for is probably 52% but let’s see what figures Newspoll, Morgan and Neilsen put out in the next 30 hrs.

  2. The ReachTel numbers are suspicious.

    Why? Because they ran national polls on both the 3rd and 4th of September. The 3rd had Labor at 48% 2PP with a primary vote of 35.3%. The 4th had Labor at 47% 2PP with a primary vote of 32.7%. The sample sizes were both higher than 3500, which should produce a 95% confidence MoE of less than 1.7%. The difference in primary vote is 2.6%. Either something caused a significant swing within 24 hours, or one of those polls is just wrong.

    Now, between Tuesday night and Wednesday night, what happened? Nothing significant that I can think of. At least, nothing that was any different from any other regular campaign day (no notable debate, or interview, from what I recall). Yet it managed to sway the numbers by that much?

    Note that the large Labor swing wasn’t the only one – PUP got a swing of 1.7% to them. In one day. After having only gotten to 4.4% over the period of something like 30 days. KAP nearly doubled their vote – keep in mind that MoE values are accurate for the middle of the range (near 50%); near the edges, the MoE is less trustworthy.

    The 3rd of September poll was a much more reasonable swing on all counts relative to the one a week earlier. This makes me find it the much more trustworthy poll. It saw a larger drop in LNP and a smaller drop in Labor; this makes sense to me, as it was the week that saw the “Kevin finally has his mojo back” moment, as well as the “great answer on marriage equality” moment. I’m not saying that it’s more trustworthy because Labor didn’t drop as much; I’m saying that I can see an explanation for the change seen in that particular poll. I can’t see an explanation for the change seen in the September 4th poll.

  3. Yeah, 35/45/9 is about where I’d expect it to be, roughly….

    ReachTel has BOTH Labor and the Coalition further down on primaries that where I’d expect, so the 2PP probably works out right in the end.

  4. I’ll know there will be a predictions later, but I’ll take a stab now:

    LNP Primary: 45
    ALP Primary: 36
    Green Primary: 8
    Others Primary: 11

    2pp 53.5/46.5

    I think the ALP vote will be a bit higher than 34/35. Greens tend to be overstated in polls. Others will be up due to PUP. With PUP preferencing LNP in 150 seats then the preference flow from others will be a bit higher than normal.

    Most Probable: LNP 97, ALP 50, KAP1, GRN 1, IND 1

    NSW LNP gains: Banks, Dobell, Eden Monaro, Kingsford-Smith, Lindsay, Lyne, New England, Parramatta, Reid, Robertson, Werriwa, 1 of (McMahon, Barton, Page, Richmond). 12 gains.

    Qld LNP gains: Moreton, Petrie, Lilley, Capricornia, 1 of (Oxley, Griffith, Rankin, Blair). 5 gains.

    Vic LNP gains: Corangamite, Deakin, LaTrobe. 3 gains.

    Tas LNP gains: Bass, Braddon, Lyons. 3 gains.

    NT LNP gains: Lingari. 1 gain.

    Greens to still hold Melbourne. Mirabella to hang on due to LNP party resources and organisation. Beattie to go down in Forde. Rudd to just hold on. Greenway to survive Western Sydney swing due to incompetence of LNP candidate.

  5. Bear, it’s pretty much what I get on the 2PP, with Greens at 9% and ALP at 35 for the same 2PP. The Coalition should get a better preference flow from others than the polls suggest given they are placed ahead of Labor in most of the major minor parties on the How to Vote cards.

    I have the Coalition at 91 seats. That will be my final number. A mate heavily involved and quite senior in the Labor Party suggests they are looking at low 50s as you suggest. I’m not so confident.

    My difference with yours is that I think the gains will be lower in QLD and in NSW. Don’t be surprised to see one of the ALP held VIC seats pop out unexpectedly. I do think now the Libs will pick up Lyons after internal polling received this morning.

  6. DB – I think Qld will be a bit worse than expected for the ALP. The prepoll and postal voting proportions in Queensland are significantly higher than the rest of Australia. This to me signifies that Queenslanders are a bit more angry than usual. When we swing bats we tend to swing hard. Doesn’t matter if its ALP (1996, 2012) or LNP (2001, 2004).

  7. Talk today of internal polling from both sides showing a sharp swing against Labor in Melbourne’s south and east. There are claims that Labor are now worrying about Bruce, Chisholm and Isaacs.

    I also read a post from someone on another (non-political) forum, quoting Liberal internal polling showing 50/50 in both Bruce and Chisholm. I have no idea how true that is, although other polls do show Chisholm at least is fairly close.

  8. Bookies only have Labor ahead in 3 (repeat 3) Qld seats – Griffith, Rankin and Oxley. If this is correct then it is a net loss of 5 seats in Qld. And Coalition are looking at more like 100 seats than 90…….

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