Election eve predictions thread


I’ve had much less time than I would have liked to blog during the campaign, and have used my little spare time to update the lists of candidates for each House of Representatives seat.

It seems appropriate now to open a new thread for commenters to give their predictions before election day.

The polling is telling a consistent message: the Coalition is on track for a solid victory. Most polls have the Liberal/National Coalition leading with 52% or 53% of the two-party-preferred vote.

The ALP appears to be on track to lose ground, with the Queensland strategy failing to net them any extra seats. The ALP now appears to be gravely concerned about losing seats in Queensland including those of Kevin Rudd and Wayne Swan, and there is little hope that star candidate Peter Beattie will turf out Bert Van Manen in Forde.

In the minor party stakes the Greens vote is hovering around 10% – better than in the recent past but not as high as at the last election.

Some recent polling has also indicated that Clive Palmer’s party has registered significantly in the polls, particularly in Queensland. Clearly his high level of spending on the election has had an effect, but it’s hard to judge if polls are under- or over-estimating PUP support.

I won’t make any detailed predictions, but others shouldn’t feel so constrained – obviously people have already started making predictions for individual seats on individual seat profiles, but you can use this thread to make detailed or simple predictions about the national result.

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  1. Wine Diamond – my experience has been they shave between 1% to 2% off the ALP’s margin when they first appear on the ballot. Although there are canidates in La Trobe and Melbourne Ports, I expect it will be in Bruce and Chisholm where they will be decisive.

    Barton is unusual as it’s largely Shia muslim, my gut feeling is they are even more sensitive. But Muslims in general are tired of the west attacking the Ummah.

    MDM – two large concentations I’m aware of, Brentwood School zone in Glen Waverley and Springvale. I’m not aware of relative proportions but I can say about 8% of voters in Bruce are Muslim.

  2. My predictions are as follows:

    Coalition: 98 (It was 78, not too long ago)
    Labor: 49 (Labor’s highwater with me was 70; it has drifted downwards ever since)
    Independent: 1
    Katter: 1
    Green: 1

    For the seats I have covered in this campaign:

    Werriwa – LIB 54.3/LAB 45.7 – I hated typing every character for that one
    McMahon – LIB 50.8/LAB 49.2 – Terrible outcome
    Greenway – LIB 52.1/LAB 47.9 – Even worse outcome
    Chifley – LAB 54.1/LIB 45.9 – Solid outcome for Husic
    Mitchell – LIB 77.5/LAB 22.5 – Hawke to increase his majority substantially
    Parramatta – LIB 50.2/LAB 49.8 – Battle of the mediocrities here
    Fowler – LAB 55.6/LIB 44.4 – Could conceivably have predicted 62.8, but would have been laughed at.

  3. ” an ABC article suggesting the Newspoll state break up indicates only 49 seats for Labor but little else around”

    Newspoll not released but from the above, it doesn’t look good for the ALP.

  4. If it wasn’t for dud liberal candidates in Western Sydney, Liberal would have 100 seats. This House will look like a Middle Eastern Democracy… I am predicting another 3 years of scandals and dodgy politics due to the fact of too many dud liberal backbenchers…

  5. Confirmed – 54/46 Nielsen and Newspoll. Tomorrow looks like it could be worse than ’96 but not as bad as ’75. Morgan is releasing a final phone poll I believe, but on their earlier poll today it was 55/45 based on 2010 preferences according to Kevin Bonham and I totally concur.

  6. DB
    Looks like that Nose Dive i predicted 48 hrs ago. The problem for Labor is that it is still happening….continuing….increasing…..

  7. HoR: LNP – 90, ALP – 58, IND – 1, KAP – 1 (I’ve bet big on this; so fingers crossed)
    LNP – 16
    ALP – 14
    GRN – 5 (Not S.A.)
    ON – 1 (NSW)
    KAP – 1 (QLD)
    XEN – 1 (SA)
    FF – 1 (VIC)
    NoCarbonTax – 1 (SA)

  8. I predict Labor to have a net loss of 25 seats in todays election largely based on the latest polls. Therefore I agree with Simon Jackman’s statistical analysis who stated last night that Labor are set to lose 26 seats today. Labor are on track to lose the following number of seats to the Coalition in the following states: NSW (11), VIC (4), QLD (5) WA (1) SA (1) TAS (3) NT (1)

    However, I think Labor are favoured to win the seat of Melbourne from the Greens whilst the Coalition are in grave danger of losing the seat of Indi to an Independent. I also think other seats could be in play especially in NSW and QLD if 2PP vote tonight is greater than 54/46 to the LNP.

    Therefore I will stick my neck out and say the final numbers will be Labor 47 Coalition 100 Independents 3.

    I am a Labor supporter and agree with the assessment presented by Lachlan Harris on the 7:30 report last night suggesting a good result for the party based on the latest polls is if they are returned with 50 seats.

  9. My predictions:
    2PP 51.5 LNP – 48.5 ALP
    ALP 61 seats
    Bandt, Wilkie, McGowan win, plus at least one PUP or KAP candidate in a regional Qld seat
    Pauline Hanson beats Sinodinis
    Eden Monaro, McMahon, Richmond, Watson, Barton, Page, Kingsford Smith all retained by the ALP
    ALP wins the seat of Brisbane
    Senate cross benches are motley crew of Green, KAP, Hanson and a very minor party.
    A lot of kneejerk post mortems about a “massive late swing to Labor”, and finally
    This is the last federal election where the agenda will be set by landline based polling.

  10. I expect coalition to get to 90 seats. Alp gains melbourne soloman herbert flynn. Indy takes indi. Lnp takes moreton petrie fisher lilley rankin oxley page lynn new england dobell robertson greenway lindsay parramatta banks reid latrobe deakin corangmite bass braddon hindmarsh liNgari. Could go either way blair mcmahon dawson werriwa kingsford smith chisholm and a shock south aussie seat

  11. As I see it: 94 Coalition, 52 Labor, 2 independents, 1 Green and 1 Bob Katter.

    Clive Palmer’s a smokie in Fairfax, but I still have him down as a rank outsider to form government.

    Jaymes Diaz has probably done enough during the campaign to win Greenway.

    ALP to pickup no seats. They’re obviously a shot in Melbourne, but I’m not sure where else. Maybe Brisbane.

    LNP pickups in the bag: Banks, Bass, Braddon, Corangamite, Deakin, Dobell, La Trobe, Lindsay, Lyne, McEwen, New England, Reid and Robertson.

    Likely LNP pickups: Blair, Brand, Greenway, Lilley, Lingiari, Lyons, Moreton, Parramatta, Petrie.

    Possible LNP pickups: Bruce, Capricornia, Chisolm, Franklin, Hindmarsh, Kingsford Smith, McMahon, Oxley, Page, Werriwa.

  12. Coalition 2 party preferred to be between 1996 and 1975 levels.

    I can’t see how voters would punish this government LESS than Keating’s government…

  13. Interesting feeling at the booths this morning. Very different to past elections. The main difference was that normally most voters take all HTV cards. This time there was alot more people just taking the Lib HTV and ignoring all the others. Also there wasn’t as much heckling as in the past. Big swing in NSW is on.

  14. No such evidence in Canberra at the polls this morning. Some evidence of ALP voters planning to split their tickets and vote Green in the senate

  15. 93-52-5.

    Coalition gain: Bass, Braddon, Lyons, Hindmarsh, Corangamite, Deakin, La Trobe, Moreton, Petrie, Banks, Dobell, Greenway, Kingsford Smith, Lindsay, Lyne, New England, Page, Parramatta, Reid, Robertson, Werriwa.

    Labor gain: none

    PUP gain: Fairfax

    Independents gain: Indi

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