I’ve had much less time than I would have liked to blog during the campaign, and have used my little spare time to update the lists of candidates for each House of Representatives seat.
It seems appropriate now to open a new thread for commenters to give their predictions before election day.
The polling is telling a consistent message: the Coalition is on track for a solid victory. Most polls have the Liberal/National Coalition leading with 52% or 53% of the two-party-preferred vote.
The ALP appears to be on track to lose ground, with the Queensland strategy failing to net them any extra seats. The ALP now appears to be gravely concerned about losing seats in Queensland including those of Kevin Rudd and Wayne Swan, and there is little hope that star candidate Peter Beattie will turf out Bert Van Manen in Forde.
In the minor party stakes the Greens vote is hovering around 10% – better than in the recent past but not as high as at the last election.
Some recent polling has also indicated that Clive Palmer’s party has registered significantly in the polls, particularly in Queensland. Clearly his high level of spending on the election has had an effect, but it’s hard to judge if polls are under- or over-estimating PUP support.
I won’t make any detailed predictions, but others shouldn’t feel so constrained – obviously people have already started making predictions for individual seats on individual seat profiles, but you can use this thread to make detailed or simple predictions about the national result.