Indonesia is at the polls today to elect their president in the second direct election of their president. In 2004, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) defeated sitting President Megawati Sukarnoputri. This election sees three tickets running. Under Indonesian electoral law, candidates must have the support of parties with at least 20% of the seats in Indonesia’s parliament. This has limited the field to a small number of candidates.
April’s parliamentary election was a strong victory for SBY’s Democratic Party, winning over 20%, which made them the largest party in a deeply fractured party system. This allowed SBY to be nominated solely with the support of his party, but the Democratic Party has built a coalition of 314/560 seats to nominate SBY for President. The two largest opposition parties have also stitched together the numbers to nominate two candidates to oppose SBY.
The Indonesian Democratic Party – Struggle (PDI-P) has nominated former President Megawati Sukarnoputri. Golkar, the party of former dictator Soeharto, has nominated sitting Vice-President Jusuf Kalla, while General Wiranto, who was Golkar’s 2004 presidential candidate, is running as Kalla’s running mate.
If a candidate gets over 50% today, then they win, otherwise there will be a runoff on September 8 between the top two candidates. All four recent polls I have seen put Yudhoyono in first place, and I have little doubt that Yudhoyono will come first in the race. Polls vary between those giving Yudhoyono a massive majority (67-70%) and giving him a slim plurality. Most polls also put Kalla ahead of Megawati, although this isn’t clearcut.
I tend to think Yudhoyono will fall short of winning a majority tonight, and he’ll be facing off against Kalla in a runoff. Both Kalla and Megawati have agreed to support each other in a runoff against SBY, although I tend to think Megawati will be a much weaker opponent than Kalla, considering that SBY polled over 60% in the 2004 runoff against her.
Update: While official results won’t be announced for a few weeks, exit polls suggest SBY has polled 60%, giving him a solid victory and averting the need for a runoff.
Hmmmm, I see from the ABC that SBY has about 60%, Megawati 27.5% & Kalla 12.5%, so it looks like a resounding SBY victory. Interesting that both Megawati & Kalla had former Soeharto-era Generals as running mates (Prabowo & Wiranto) – and, of course, SBY was a General too…
Obviously Generals are ‘bigtime’ in Indonesia! We only had Peter Cosgrove!
The interesting point, however, is that I get the impression that SBY is seen as less connected to the old regime and the military, despite being a general himself.
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