NSW redistribution submissions

6

I’ve been quiet for the last few days, mainly because I have been going through the ALP and Liberal submissions to the AEC’s New South Wales redistributions seat-by-seat. I have produced the following detailed report on what their proposals are for each seat. You can read their submissions, as well as the Nationals submission. I’ll produce a summary of the interesting elements in the next few days.North Coast/Hunter/Central Coast

Page, Richmond and Cowper all fall within the projections. The ALP, Liberals and Nationals all keep Page and Richmond as they are. The ALP advocates moving part of Lyne into Cowper, while the Liberals and Nationals keep Cowper as it is.

All three advocate moving parts of marginal Liberal Paterson into Lyne. The Liberals advocate the least movement, largely leaving Paterson as is. The ALP proposal sees Bulahdelah transferred from Paterson to Lyne, leaving Paterson a more unusual shape. On the other side of the electorate, both parties make dramatic changes to Paterson. Both parties support transferring the coastal areas of Port Stephens LGA from Paterson to Newcastle.

The Liberals deal with these losses of territory by extending Paterson through the Upper Hunter to Liverpool Plains and Mid-Western Regional Council. Hunter loses all of its Upper Hunter areas to Paterson, and in compensation the remainder of Maitland is transferred from Paterson and Newcastle to Hunter. The new Liberal Hunter is made up of solely Cessnock and Maitland, while Paterson becomes a safe Liberal seat.

The ALP deal with the changes very differently, by giving Paterson more of the Maitland LGA, and Hunter being compensated by gaining Mid-Western LGA from Parkes and that part of Bathurst LGA currently in Calare. The Nationals’ proposal is the least dramatic, leaving little change in the Hunter/Paterson/Newcastle area.

In the Newcastle-Shortland-Charlton-Robertson-Dobell area most changes are minor, and the eastern boundary (the Pacific Ocean) the southern boundary (the Hawkesbury River) and the western boundary remaining steady. The one point of interest lies on the boundary between Dobell and Robertson. While the Liberal submission leaves the boundary largely intact, with only minor changes, the ALP submission transfers Liberal voting areas into Robertson and ALP-voting areas into Dobell, which would make Dobell safer, while wiping out Belinda Neal’s slim margin in Robertson.

Western NSW

New England – Both parties leave the eastern and southern borders of the electorate intact, while differing on the western border. The ALP transfers Gunnedah from Parkes to New England, while transferring the remainder of Gwydir and part of Inverell from New England to Parkes. The Liberals transfer Liverpool Plains to Paterson, while adding Gwydir and Moree Plains.

Calare – Both parties advocate the large western parts of Calare be transferred to Parkes, although they differ dramatically when proposing the new boundaries of Calare. The Liberals give the western parts of Riverina to Calare, with the electorate going no further north than Forbes and Orange. The ALP boundaries take Bland from Riverina, but also include Wellington and Parkes.

Parkes – The ALP proposes a greatly-increased geographical size. Parkes loses Mid-Western to Hunter, Wellington to Calare, and Gunnedah to New England. Parkes gains the remainder of Gwydir and part of Inverell from New England. Parkes also gains the vast majority of the geographical area of the old Calare, adding up to 8 LGAs. Parkes also gains the Unincorporated West and Broken Hill from Farrer, which brings the electorate to the South Australian border and brings the seat up to about 40% of the geographical area of NSW. The Liberals also suggest the expansion of Parkes, although they differ from the ALP on which parts of the Central West should remain in Calare or be transferred to Parkes. The Liberals do not suggest Parkes takes Broken Hill, but transfer Moree Plains and Gwydir to New England.

Riverina and Hume – The ALP suggests transferring Gundagai from Riverina to Farrer, while Riverina takes three LGAs from the western part of Farrer, taking the electorate to the South Australian and Victorian borders. They also suggest transferring Bland LGA to Parkes. Riverina also gains Harden from Hume. The ALP proposes dramatic changes to Hume, which loses the western half of the electorate to Riverina, Farrer, Calare and Eden-Monaro, with the electorate being restricted to Goulburn-Mulwaree, Wingecarribee and part of Upper Lachlan. In compensation, the ALP suggests transferring the remainder of Wollondilly Shire and much of Camden LGA from Macarthur to Hume.

The Liberal Party suggests the abolition of both Riverina and Hume, replacing them with the seat of Bradman, which would inclue Tumut and Tumbarumba (from Eden-Monaro), Wagga Wagga, Junee, Gundagai, and Cootamundra (from Riverina), Harden, Young, Boorowa, Yass Valley and Upper Lachlan (from Hume).

Farrer – the Liberals suggest transferring Central Darling LGA from Calare to Farrer. The ALP suggest dramatically reducing the size of Farrer, with Broken Hill and the Unincorporated West being added to a much-enlarged Parkes, and Wentworth, Balranald and Hay LGAs being transferred to an enlarged Riverina. Farrer gains Tumut and Tumbarumba from Eden-Monaro, which brings the electorate up to the ACT border, as well as Yass Valley from Hume and Gundagai from Riverina.

Eden-Monaro – the Liberals and the ALP both support the removal of Tumut and Tumbarumba (the LGAs to the west of the ACT). The parties provide different ways to compensate. The ALP advocates adding the remainder of Palerang Shire to Eden-Monaro, while adding a small area leading up to the southern outskirts of Bateman’s Bay. The Liberals advocate adding Goulburn Mulwaree LGA, while transferring Moruya and surrounding parts to Gilmore.

Sutherland and Illawarra

Gilmore – The ALP propose transferring a small area south of Batemans Bay to Eden-Monaro, while moving the northern border with Throsby north, to include the remainder of Kiama and half of the Shellharbour LGA. The Liberals include more of Eurobodalla LGA in Gilmore, transferring areas around Moruya, as far south as Bodalla, into Gilmore from Eden-Monaro. The Liberals also transfer inland parts of Kiama LGA around Jamberoo into Gilmore, and compensate by transferring part of the town of Kiama into Throsby.

Throsby – The Liberals maintain the northern and western boundaries of Throsby, while aligning the southern border with the Kiama-Shellharbour LGA. The one breach of this border is around Kiama itself, with most of the town being transferred from Gilmore to Throsby. The ALP moves Throsby to the north, losing southern parts of Shellharbour to Gilmore, and gaining parts of the centre of Wollongong to compensate.

Cunningham – The ALP transfers parts of the Wollongong CBD to Throsby, and compensates by moving Cunningham deeper into Sutherland. Cunningham would gain those parts of Cook south of Port Hacking, and would gain part of Sutherland from Hughes, right up to the centre of Sutherland itself. The Liberals, in contrast, leave Cunningham mostly intact. The only change they advocate is moving the parts of Cook south of Port Hacking, which contain very few voters.

Cook – Both parties leave Cook largely intact, although both transfer the sparsely populated area south of Port Hacking into Cunningham. Both parties transfer a small part of Hughes into Cook, the Liberals moving the remainder of Sutherland east of the railway line, while the ALP transfer Bonnet Bay and Como West into the northern end of the electorate.

Hughes – The ALP and Liberals differ dramatically in their recommendations for Hughes. The Liberals leave Hughes largely alone. They transfer the small part of Hughes on the eastern side of the Sutherland railway line to Cook, aligning the border with the railway line, and compensate by moving a small part of Liverpool from Fowler into Hughes. The ALP, in contrast, transfers south-western Sutherland into Cunningham, all the way up to the centre of Sutherland. To compensate, the ALP transfers much of northern Werriwa into Hughes. This includes Glenfield and Macquarie Fields in Campbelltown, as well as Casula, Prestons and Edmondson Park, and going all the way to the Liverpool-Camden boundary at Leppington.

South-Western Sydney

Macarthur – The ALP advocates the abolition of the seat of Macarthur. All of Campbelltown is transferred into Werriwa, as well as that part of the Camden LGA east of the Camden Bypass. The northern parts of Camden LGA, as well as a few northern Wollondilly suburbs isolated from the rest of the Shire, are transferred to Fowler. The remainder of the Wollondilly Shire, as well as Camden itself, are transferred to Hume. The Liberals shift Macarthur further south, with Macarthur gaining the remainder of Wollondilly and all of Wingecarribee from Hume, while losing the remainder of Campbelltown to Werriwa.

Werriwa – Both parties shift Werriwa away from being a seat straddling the northern end of Campbelltown and the southwestern parts of Liverpool to being a seat mostly based on the City of Campbelltown. The Liberal proposal sees the Werriwa boundaries aligned with the LGA boundaries. The ALP proposal is similar, but excludes Glenfield and Macquarie Fields in the north, instead transferring that part of Camden east of the Camden Bypass.

Fowler – The Liberals have removed the western extremities of Fowler, transferring the rural parts of western Liverpool to Lindsay, along with the parts of Wollondilly and Penrith LGAs in Fowler. Fowler also loses some population in Fairfield to Prospect, and a small population in Liverpool to Hughes. Fowler gains those parts of Liverpool and Camden previously included in Werriwa.

Western Sydney

Macquarie – Left largely alone. The ALP proposes no changes, while the Liberal Party only proposes transferring the balance of Bathurst Regional Council from Calare to Macquarie.

Lindsay – The ALP proposes adding those parts of Penrith LGA currently in Greenway to Lindsay. In contrast, the Liberal Party proposes adding the rural parts of western Liverpool and those parts of Penrith and Wollondilly LGAs currently in Fowler.

Chifley – The ALP proposes that Chifley gains territory from Greenway in northwestern Blacktown, as well as the parts of southern Blacktown currently part of Prospect. A small part of Chifley near Prospect is transferred to Parramatta. The Liberal proposal is much less dramatic, with the realignment of the Chifley-Greenway boundary along the M7, resulting in the transfer of population into Chifley. A small part from the southeast of the electorate is transferred to Parramatta.

Parramatta – Both parties propose shifting Parramatta back towards the Parramatta CBD, which is currently on the very edge of the electorate.

Reid – The ALP propose a radical redrawing of Reid. While it currently covers Auburn and southern parts of Parramatta LGA, the ALP proposal shifts the seat westward to cover the Granville part of Parramatta LGA and a majority of Holroyd LGA, with no part of Auburn LGA in the electorate. The Liberal proposal is much more limited, with some amendments to the northern boundary with Parramatta to accommodate that electorate’s move to the south.

Prospect – Again, the Liberal proposals are rather mild, with some changes to the south and east of the electorate, where it shifts into Cabramatta. The ALP proposal removes all of the Blacktown and Holroyd parts of Prospects. The ALP compensates by adding a large part of Fairfield LGA, making the electorate almost entirely Fairfield-based.

Blaxland – Blaxland, which was previously a Bankstown-only electorate, stretched into Fairfield and Holroyd in 2006. The ALP has removed the Fairfield and Holroyd parts of the electorate, compensating by including the entire Auburn LGA. The Liberal proposal leaves Blaxland as is, adding more Fairfield suburbs to bring the electorate up to quota.

Central Sydney

Banks – Both parties leave Banks largely intact, with the ALP proposal adding a small part of Watson in the Canterbury LGA. The Liberal proposal removes a small part of the northeast corner of the electorate and instead adds part of the Kogarah LGA from Barton.

Barton – Barton currently covers Kogarah LGA and most of Rockdale LGA. The ALP proposal adds only a small area, around Bardwell Park, bringing Barton closer to covering all of Rockdale LGA. The Liberal proposal is more radical, removing part of Kogarah LGA and compensating by adding part of Hurstville LGA currently part of Watson LGA.

Watson – The ALP removes small areas of Canterbury LGA to both Banks and Lowe, and part of Rockdale LGA to Barton, and compensates by adding part of Bankstown LGA from Blaxland. The Liberal proposal removes the majority of Hurstville LGA currently within Watson, as well as Campsie in northern Canterbury LGA. They compensate by including parts of northeastern Bankstown, and southern Strathfield.

Lowe – The ALP largely leaves this seat intact, bringing it up to quota by including small parts of Canterbury (from Watson), Bankstown (from Blaxland) and Auburn (from Reid). The Liberals remove southern parts of Strathfield and Burwood LGA and compensate by including much of Ashfield LGA, particularly Haberfield and Ashfield itself.

Grayndler – The ALP leave Grayndler as is. The Liberals include Annandale and more of Canterbury LGA (all the way to Croydon Park). In compensation the Liberals remove part of Ashfield LGA, around Haberfield and Ashfield itself.

Sydney – The ALP leaves Sydney largely as is, including the suburb of Rosebery, which is currently the only part of the City of Sydney in Kingsford Smith. The Liberals also transfer Rosebery into southern Sydney, but also shift the Sydney-Wentworth boundary eastward to Victoria Street, effectively transferring Woolloomooloo and Darlinghurst from Wentworth.

Wentworth – The Liberals transfer those parts of the City of Sydney west of Victoria Street to Sydney from Wentworth. They make no other changes. The ALP instead transfer Clovelly from Wentworth to Kingsford Smith.

Kingsford Smith – Both parties transfer Rosebery from Kingsford Smith to Sydney, making the electorate a Botany-Randwick-only electorate. The ALP also transfer the suburb of Clovelly from Wentworth to Kingsford Smith.

Northern Sydney

North Sydney – The ALP make no changes to North Sydney, while the Liberals propose moving Liberal-voting Mowbray into the marginal North Sydney from safe Bradfield.

Warringah – Since Warringah is bordered by both the Harbour and the Pacific Ocean, there is little room for movement. The Liberals propose adding a small part of Chatswood from Bradfield, while the ALP proposes removing Dee Why Beach from Mackellar.

Mackellar – The ALP propose moving Dee Why Beach into Warringah and compensate by including northern parts of Ku-ring-gai LGA, currently included in Bradfield. The Liberals propose no changes.

Bradfield – The ALP propose moving parts of northern Ku-Ring-Gai from Bradfield to Mackellar, and compensate by adding suburbs in Hornsby, previously part of Berowra. The Liberals propose more moderate changes, which see small parts from the southern end of the electorate transferred to North Sydney and Warringah, and compensate by moving a part of Hornsby into Bradfield, however it is much less than the ALP propose.

Bennelong – The Liberals propose no changes to Bennelong. The ALP propose removing part of Hornsby LGA north of the M2, which are largely Liberal-voting areas, increasing Maxine McKew’s margin in the seat.

Berowra – The ALP propose removing part of Hornsby suburb to Bradfield, and they compensate by adding Pitt Town from Greenway, part of Hornsby LGA from Bennelong, and parts of northern Baulkham Hills from Mitchell. The Liberals transfer parts of northern Baulkham Hills to Berowra, and compensate by removing areas near the Hawkesbury River to Greenway.

Mitchell – The ALP propose removing northern parts of Baulkham Hills, and compensate by adding more of Baulkham Hills South currently included in Parramatta. The Liberals likewise remove parts of northern Baulkham Hills, and compensate by transferring most of southern Baulkham Hills from Parramatta to Mitchell.

Greenway – The ALP’s proposal sees Greenway take a very odd shape. The remainder of Penrith LGA is transferred to Lindsay, and northwestern Blacktown is transferred to Chifley. On the other side, Pitt Town is transferred into Berowra. This leaves an electorate of two parts, with a very thin piece of land connecting the two. The electorate includes northeastern Blacktown, an area which is much more Liberal-voting than the rest of the LGA, and much of Hawkesbury LGA, with the exception of the area around Pitt Town. The Liberal proposal is much more subtle, with smaller changes on the boundaries.

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6 COMMENTS

  1. * It seems that Labor are really abolishing Hume. Their Goulburn-Camden seat is basically the old Macarthur before it got pushed in to Sydney.

    * It’s interesting to note both parties make proposals they didn’t support last time: Labor moves Cunningham into Sutherland (which the Libs did in 2006), and the Liberals put Goulburn in E-M (which Labor did). Local MPs fought strongly to prevent Port Stephens going in to Newcastle…now both Labor and the Libs support it.

    * Why would Labor want to put Clovelley in K-S? It’s one of the better Labor bits of Wentworth.

    * Strange how both parties push Hughes further across Georges River, and Warringah further across Middle Harbour. These are very strange divisions.

    * I’d be interested to know your thoughts on the three (that I can tell) non-partisan suggestions for the state: Dr Charles Richardson, Dr Mark Mulcair and Mr John Lush.

    Dr Richardson largely reverses the changes from last time and abolishes a Sydney seat.

    Dr Mulcair abolishes Riverina and moves Macarthur, Hughes, etc outward

    Mr Lush abolishes Berowra and has Robertson pushing across the Hawkesbury River. He also abolishes E-M and creates a new seat in the north-west of Sydney.

  2. Interesting that Labor is advocating a move that will wipe out their margin in Robertson – is that an acknowledgement that with Belinda Neal in the seat they are likely to lose it anyway, so they may as well make Dobell safer in the process?

  3. Yeah, that’s right, isn’t it?

    Labor propose Terrigal and Erina (good Liberal areas) be taken out of Robertson, and add in Wyoming and Niagra which are better for Labor.

    They boost the margin in Robertson, not cut it.

    This leaves Dobell better for the Libs, so then Labor add Gorokan and surrounding Labor regions from the Lake Macquarie seats to compensate.

  4. Sydney is under quota and Wentworth over. So, somewhere Wentworth needs to lose some area. The Libs would choose Darlinghurst because it’s solid Labor, the ALP would prefer Clovelly because it’s less so, with Rosebery then transferred back to Sydney. Even with Clovelly gone I would think that the Lib margin would be around 5% in Wentworth.

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