Cranbourne – Victoria 2018

ALP 2.3%

Incumbent MP
Jude Perera, since 2002.

Geography
Southern Melbourne. Cranbourne covers the suburbs of Cranbourne, Cranbourne East, Cranbourne North, Cranbourne West, Botanic Ridge, Junction Village and parts of Clyde, Clyde North, Devon Meadows, Lynbrook and Lyndhurst. The entire electorate is contained within the City of Casey.

History
Cranbourne was first created as an electoral district for the 1992 election. It was first won in 1992 by the Liberal Party’s Gary Rowe. He was re-elected in 1996 and 1999.

Prior to the 2002  election, the redistribution redraw the boundaries to make it much more favourable to the ALP. The margin shifted from 5.7% for the Liberal Party to 1.6% for the ALP. The ALP’s Jude Perera gained a 9.2% swing, winning the seat off Rowe.

Perera has been re-elected three times.

Candidates

Assessment
Cranbourne is a very marginal seat.

2014 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Jude Perera Labor 17,36543.4+1.4
Geoff Ablett Liberal 16,53641.3+0.9
Nagaraj Nayak Greens 1,6684.2-2.7
Laith GrahamSex Party1,1102.8+2.6
Jonathan Willie EliRise Up Australia9952.5+2.5
Pamela KeenanFamily First9792.4-1.6
Rosemary BlakeIndependent8242.1+2.1
Rania MichaelAustralian Christians5601.4+1.4
Informal2,8106.6

2014 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Jude Perera Labor 20,95452.3+1.3
Geoff Ablett Liberal 19,08347.7-1.3

Booth breakdown

Booths in Cranbourne have been divided into central, north and south.

Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all four areas, ranging from 50.1% in the south-west to 57.3% in the north-east.

Voter groupALP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
North-East57.35,68814.2
South-East55.25,60914.0
South-West50.15,62214.0
North-West56.14,84412.1
Other votes53.47,32118.3
Pre-poll47.610,95327.4

Two-party-preferred votes in Cranbourne at the 2014 Victorian state election

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Ben Raue is the founder and author of the Tally Room.If you like this post, please consider donating to support the Tally Room.