Cranbourne – Victoria 2018

ALP 2.3%

Incumbent MP
Jude Perera, since 2002.

Geography
Southern Melbourne. Cranbourne covers the suburbs of Cranbourne, Cranbourne East, Cranbourne North, Cranbourne West, Botanic Ridge, Junction Village and parts of Clyde, Clyde North, Devon Meadows, Lynbrook and Lyndhurst. The entire electorate is contained within the City of Casey.

History
Cranbourne was first created as an electoral district for the 1992 election. It was first won in 1992 by the Liberal Party’s Gary Rowe. He was re-elected in 1996 and 1999.

Prior to the 2002  election, the redistribution redraw the boundaries to make it much more favourable to the ALP. The margin shifted from 5.7% for the Liberal Party to 1.6% for the ALP. The ALP’s Jude Perera gained a 9.2% swing, winning the seat off Rowe.

Perera has been re-elected three times.

Candidates
Sitting Labor MP Jude Perera is not running for re-election.

Assessment
Cranbourne is a very marginal seat.

2014 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Jude Perera Labor 17,36543.4+1.4
Geoff Ablett Liberal 16,53641.3+0.9
Nagaraj Nayak Greens 1,6684.2-2.7
Laith GrahamSex Party1,1102.8+2.6
Jonathan Willie EliRise Up Australia9952.5+2.5
Pamela KeenanFamily First9792.4-1.6
Rosemary BlakeIndependent8242.1+2.1
Rania MichaelAustralian Christians5601.4+1.4
Informal2,8106.6

2014 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Jude Perera Labor 20,95452.3+1.3
Geoff Ablett Liberal 19,08347.7-1.3

Booth breakdown

Booths in Cranbourne have been divided into central, north and south.

Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all four areas, ranging from 50.1% in the south-west to 57.3% in the north-east.

Voter groupALP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
North-East57.35,68814.2
South-East55.25,60914.0
South-West50.15,62214.0
North-West56.14,84412.1
Other votes53.47,32118.3
Pre-poll47.610,95327.4

Two-party-preferred votes in Cranbourne at the 2014 Victorian state election

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7 COMMENTS

  1. Evidence of the Victorian Libs drift to the religious right – preselecting the former Family First candidate.

  2. I can see Labor holding here, they will have a harder task in the neighboring seats of Carrum and Narre Warren North and even Narre Warren South.
    In the long run I feel that this seat will move towards Labor rather than stay a true marginal.
    My guess 53-47 Labor

  3. L96, I think Cranbourne’s long term future will depend on redistributions. If it stays where it is, I agree it will probably become stronger for Labor. But if it pushes south into the rural parts of Casey (where it was before 2002), it will be a more naturally Liberal seat. The Libs held it easily in 1999 when they lost office.

    I agree Carrum is trending Liberal (compare 1992/1996 with 2010), but I’m not sure why you think the Narre Warren seats are the same?

  4. I think Carrum should be more Labor than the last state election suggests. Federal results would make it pretty safe and the new Labor MP seems to be getting some good results there with upgrades to schools and the like.

    As for Cranbourne – the Libs had a much better candidate last time – the local mayor who also happened to be a pretty famous footballer (the brother of god for the Melburnians out there). The Lib candidate this time has a far lower profile, which wouldn’t help the Libs hopes for this seat. There’s a retiring Labor MP, but I’m not sure he will take much of a personal vote with him.

    We’re still four and a half months out, but if an election were today I’d be pretty confident predicting a Labor hold.

  5. The Liberals are certainly trying to porkbarrel though – announcing they’d support an extension of the train line to Clyde is one of many examples.

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