Australia 2019 Archive

9

Using 3PP data to understand three-cornered races

I was recently alerted to a new source of data on the AEC website. The AEC has always published the distribution of preferences at the seat level, as well as a more detailed dataset showing the flow of preferences from each candidate’s primary votes to the two-candidate-preferred count. They have now published this data at the booth level. This means you can see how many votes in each booth flowed to other candidates as the count progressed. Until now, the only booth-level data we had was the primary votes and the top two count.

You could probably use this data to make some interesting maps (how the flow of Greens or One Nation preferences shifts across a diverse electorate) but that’s for another day. I’m finding it most useful now because it allows us to recalculate a three-party-preferred count for electorates that have been redistributed, and there were two in particular I wanted to look at.

The Greens were not far off getting into the top two in Melbourne Ports in 2016. While the Greens candidate trailed Labor MP Michael Danby on primary votes by 3.21%, this gap shrunk to 1.12% after preferences from minor candidates were distributed. We already knew that this primary vote gap had narrowed in the renamed seat of Macnamara following the redistribution, but until now I haven’t done a 3PP count.

The new seat of Canberra has a big question mark floating over it. The best Greens areas in the ACT were previously split between Canberra and Fenner, but the new inner-city seat (confusingly taking the name of Canberra, while the old Canberra was renamed Bean) now concentrates these areas in one seat. My primary vote calculations put the Greens 14.1% behind the Liberal Party, but with over 4% of the vote going to the Bullet Train party. I was curious to know whether that gap would narrow once those Bullet Train preferences were distributed.

The answer is below the fold:

Read the rest of this entry »

9

Vic redistribution – final(ish) map finished

The AEC announced its final decision for the Victorian federal redistribution on Wednesday. That day I published my new estimates of the margins, and I’ve now also finished my map of the new electoral boundaries.

I am not 100% sure these are correct, because the AEC did not publish data or maps on Wednesday. They simply published descriptions of the changes they made to the draft boundaries (albeit detailed ones). I believe I have accurately drawn all the changes that involved voters moving but I will need to wait for the publication of the maps and data on July 13 to double-check.

You can download this map as a Google Earth file, or browse the map below.

39

Vic redistribution finalised – the end of Batman

The Australian Electoral Commission released the final decisions for the Victorian federal redistribution earlier today. Most of the changes were very minor, with no seats experiencing a large change in margin. The switch of Dunkley from Liberal to notional Labor has been maintained.

We have seen two changes in seat names. The seat of Cox has been restored to its previous name of Corangamite. While they noted the concern about the double-entendre in the name, the decision has supposedly been made due to the longstanding use of the name Corangamite.

The AEC is also renaming the seat of Batman in Melbourne’s inner north to ‘Cooper’. This name honours early 20th century Aboriginal leader William Cooper. The report specifically mentions his role in founding the Australian Aborigines League in the 1930s, and his protests against Nazi Germany in 1938. This is the culmination of a long campaign to abolish this seat name.

Overall we will see eight new seat names at the next federal election. Batman is not the only seat named after an early white settler to be renamed in part due to that man’s genocidal history – the seat of McMillan in eastern Victoria has been renamed ‘Monash’.

The announcement today just included descriptions of how the boundaries have been changed since the first draft. There are no maps and no data. So it’s possible there might be small errors in my margin calculations. I will put together the updated map over the weekend, although I’ll double-check the boundaries when the official map is released on July 13.

I also expect we’ll be getting the final boundaries for ACT and South Australia over the next week.

The table below the fold lists the margin in every Victorian seat, before the redistribution, on the draft boundaries and on the final boundaries. I discovered a small bug in my margin calculation code so there may be some small changes (around 0.1% in most cases) even where boundaries haven’t changed, but I’ve included the previously-published margins for transparency.

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1

Federal election guides – they keep coming

I’ve been continuing to post a seat guide every day recently, with fifteen more posted since I last posted on the front page. They tend to be safer Liberal seats, but there are still some interesting conversations:

For those of you who are particularly interested in electoral redistributions, you might find the comments under the Hume seat guide interesting. Hume has an odd shape, with the seat bisected by parts of the Southern Highlands which are in the seat of Whitlam. There’s been a bunch of suggestions about how changes to seats in the Illawarra and the south-east could result in Hume getting tidied up.

Finally, this is another reminder that I’m running a donation drive to fund the new podcast. My goal was for eighteen new patrons. I’m now at six. I promise if we can hit this target this week I’ll stop bugging you about donating for a while. You can donate via Patreon.

0

The latest guides – May 4

The front of this website has been quiet recently, but I’ve been regularly posting a new federal seat guide every day, so be sure to check in occasionally. The ten most recent guides are listed on the right-hand side of the front page.

Remember, if you’d like me to prioritise a particular seat (including any seat in the Victorian or NSW state elections) you can do so by pledging to donate $5 or more per month via Patreon.

I’ll be back tomorrow night with the coverage of the Tasmanian upper house election tomorrow night. See you then!

0

This week’s guides – April 21

There are eight new seat guides up on the website since I last updated last Friday.

These will continue to pop up, one per day, for the next few months.

1

SA federal redistribution – here is the map

I’ve now finished the draft boundary map for the SA federal redistribution, following on from the draft boundaries released the previous week for Victoria and the ACT.

Download the Google Earth map for the draft SA federal boundaries.

Remember there is a wide range of electoral maps – federal, state and local, dating back at least a decade – on the maps page.

And here is an interactive map. You can toggle on and off the 2016 and 2019 boundaries.

13

New federal pendulum after recent redistributions

Following the release of the draft South Australian redistribution boundaries yesterday, we can now put together a pendulum of all seat margins for the next election. This pendulum uses the actual election margins for New South Wales and Western Australia, and the final post-redistribution margins for Queensland, Tasmania and the Northern Territory, as well as the post-redistribution margins for the draft boundaries for Victoria, South Australia and the ACT.

I’ve included this pendulum below the fold, but you can also find it at this link. I’ve now posted the pendulum, along with a list of seats in alphabetical order and a list of seats by state, on the federal election guide. There are now twenty seat guides posted there, and I will keep posting at least one per day for the foreseeable future. The pendulum below won’t keep getting updated with fresh links but does include the twenty so far.

The only update since yesterday’s post is that I calculated two-candidate-preferred margins between the Liberal Party and the Nick Xenophon Team in Barker, Grey and Mayo. In these three seats, I calculated what proportion of primary votes for all other parties flowed to either of these two parties in the final count in those parts of the seat where NXT made the top two. Some areas were swapped back and forth between Grey and Barker, so they were included as if they had always been in the seat. This proportion was then applied to the remaining primary votes.

The figures are:

  • Barker – LIB vs NXT 4.2% (down from 4.7%)
  • Grey – LIB vs NXT 1.9% (down from 2.0%)
  • Mayo – NXT vs LIB 5.3% (up from 5.0%)

These are all shifts towards the NXT, but they should come with a grain of salt. They fit with the overall trend of the Liberal Party not losing any seats but having all of their seats become more marginal.

Read the rest of this entry »

5

SA redistribution live

12:30pm – That’s all I’ll be posting today. I’ll be back on the weekend with an updated pendulum, and will be putting together the map in coming days.

12:26pm – On a primary vote basis in Mayo, the Liberal Party has dropped 1.1%, NXT has dropped 1.9%, and Labor has jumped by 3.1%, thanks to inclusion of Boothby and Kingston, which were seats where Labor competed much more strongly.

It’s also worth noting that the Liberal-Labor 2PP figure in all three seats where NXT broke into the top two have seen Labor’s position strengthen. I will have to make my own estimates of the LIB vs NXT margin in these three seats, but won’t happen until tomorrow.

12:20pm – So here are the toplines:

  • Labor has lost its sixth seat, thanks to the merger of Port Adelaide and Wakefield into Spence, which is a very safe seat.
  • The extremely marginal Labor seat of Hindmarsh has become reasonably safe, while Adelaide has also got a lot safer, and Makin is a bit safer.
  • It’s hard to predict the margins in Barker, Grey or Mayo because there were parts of these seats where the two-candidate-preferred count didn’t involve NXT. So that’s why these margins haven’t changed much. About 86% of Grey and Mayo were already in the seat before the redistribution, while the figure is just over 90% for Barker.
  • The Liberal Party’s position has got weaker in Boothby and Sturt.

12:15pm – Here are my margin estimates.

SeatOld marginNew margin
Adelaide ALP 4.7% ALP 8.3%
Barker LIB vs NXT 4.7% LIB vs NXT 4.2%
Boothby LIB 3.5% LIB 2.7%
Grey LIB vs NXT 2% LIB vs NXT 1.9%
Hindmarsh ALP 0.6% ALP 8.4%
Kingston ALP 17% ALP 13.5%
Makin ALP 9.7% ALP 10.8%
Mayo NXT vs LIB 5% NXT vs LIB 5.3%
Port Adelaide ALP vs NXT 14.9% Abolished
Spence (Wakefield) ALP 11% ALP 17.1%
Sturt LIB 5.9% LIB 5.4%

12:08pm – Here are my estimates of the 2PP and primary vote.

Vote estimates

SeatALP 2PPLNP 2PPALP primLNP primGRN primNXT prim
Adelaide58.341.739.0732.5510.013.7
Barker36.163.916.3245.563.628.6
Boothby47.352.726.9241.678.218.5
Grey42.257.822.542.222.726.7
Hindmarsh58.441.639.9831.36.617.0
Kingston63.536.545.326.165.818.1
Makin60.839.242.727.474.716.7
Mayo46.753.316.6236.628.233.0
Spence67.132.945.0820.784.620.1
Sturt44.655.423.344.387.619.9

11:56am – It turns out the redistribution was released at 11:30am east coast time, not Adelaide time (as predicted by the AEC) so I’m just catching up now. Will have estimates in a few minutes. It appears Wakefield and Port Adelaide have been merged as the seat of Spence.

0

This week’s guides – April 13

Since I last posted about this, I’ve published eight more guides, with the links listed below:

I’ll keep publishing one guide per day, and you can see the most recent guides on the right-hand sidebar or on each guide’s front page. If you’d like to see a seat prioritised, you can make a request if you donate $5 or more per month via Patreon.

The South Australian redistribution is due out today. I plan to do a quick calculation of the margin but have some work commitments which may make that hard to do immediately. Watch this space!