Australia 2019 Archive

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Podcast #8 – Wagga Wagga results and Banks

I’m joined by Ben Spies-Butcher and Amanda McCormack to discuss the Wagga Wagga by-election, the state of NSW politics six months before the state election, and the federal seat of Banks.

We also discussed Ann Sudmalis’ retirement announcement and Kerryn Phelps’ candidacy announcement.

Links to things discussed in the show:

You can subscribe using this RSS feed in your podcast app of choice, but should also be able to find this podcast by searching for “the Tally Room”. If you like the show please considering rating and reviewing us on iTunes.

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Podcast #6 – Liberal leadership spill and Lindsay

I was joined on Wednesday evening by Stewart Jackson and El Gibbs to discuss the Liberal leadership spill and the seat of Lindsay.

Our discussion of the Liberal leadership spill focused on some of the broader issues but was conducted before the rumours of a second spill strengthened later tonight. I expect our chat will be somewhat out of date in the next few days but most of it should still be interesting regardless of who comes out on top.

Read the Tally Room guide to Lindsay

Follow El Gibbs on Twitter

Stewart Jackson’s University of Sydney profile

You can subscribe using this RSS feed in your podcast app of choice, but should also be able to find this podcast by searching for “the Tally Room”. If you like the show please considering rating and reviewing us on iTunes.

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The seats you’ve been talking about

With the federal election guide now complete, I decided to check in on which seats have been attracting the most comments. Comment sections are now open for all 159 federal contests, and some of these pages have been quite active.

These are the seats with the most comments. There’s some obvious marginal seats but also a few surprises.

SeatComments
Hume49
Ryan44
Macnamara39
Lindsay38
Cooper36
Cook33
Brisbane28
Higgins27
Lilley23
Reid22
Casey20
Herbert20
Hughes20
Stirling19
Deakin15
Isaacs15
New England15
QLD Senate15

Overall (as of Saturday evening) 1153 comments had been posted on 140 different guides, with nineteen races yet to attract a comment.

If there’s a seat that interests you, please join in!

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Federal election guide finalised

For those who haven’t already noticed, I wanted to let you know that the guide to the next federal election is now finished and up on the website in total.

The guide includes profiles of all 151 House of Representatives races, and all eight Senate contests.

You can use these links to see a full list of lower house links:

Or you can use this map to navigate to any seat of interest. Click on the seat and a pop-up box will appear, including a link to the guide.

And here are links to the eight Senate contests:

Please let me know if there are any errors by commenting on the relevant post or by filling out the contact form on the front page of the guide. I will make some small changes as the election gets closer, and will occasionally do updates of candidate lists.

Meanwhile I am now posting one seat per day for the Victorian state election.

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Using 3PP data to understand three-cornered races

I was recently alerted to a new source of data on the AEC website. The AEC has always published the distribution of preferences at the seat level, as well as a more detailed dataset showing the flow of preferences from each candidate’s primary votes to the two-candidate-preferred count. They have now published this data at the booth level. This means you can see how many votes in each booth flowed to other candidates as the count progressed. Until now, the only booth-level data we had was the primary votes and the top two count.

You could probably use this data to make some interesting maps (how the flow of Greens or One Nation preferences shifts across a diverse electorate) but that’s for another day. I’m finding it most useful now because it allows us to recalculate a three-party-preferred count for electorates that have been redistributed, and there were two in particular I wanted to look at.

The Greens were not far off getting into the top two in Melbourne Ports in 2016. While the Greens candidate trailed Labor MP Michael Danby on primary votes by 3.21%, this gap shrunk to 1.12% after preferences from minor candidates were distributed. We already knew that this primary vote gap had narrowed in the renamed seat of Macnamara following the redistribution, but until now I haven’t done a 3PP count.

The new seat of Canberra has a big question mark floating over it. The best Greens areas in the ACT were previously split between Canberra and Fenner, but the new inner-city seat (confusingly taking the name of Canberra, while the old Canberra was renamed Bean) now concentrates these areas in one seat. My primary vote calculations put the Greens 14.1% behind the Liberal Party, but with over 4% of the vote going to the Bullet Train party. I was curious to know whether that gap would narrow once those Bullet Train preferences were distributed.

The answer is below the fold:

Read the rest of this entry »

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Vic redistribution – final(ish) map finished

The AEC announced its final decision for the Victorian federal redistribution on Wednesday. That day I published my new estimates of the margins, and I’ve now also finished my map of the new electoral boundaries.

I am not 100% sure these are correct, because the AEC did not publish data or maps on Wednesday. They simply published descriptions of the changes they made to the draft boundaries (albeit detailed ones). I believe I have accurately drawn all the changes that involved voters moving but I will need to wait for the publication of the maps and data on July 13 to double-check.

You can download this map as a Google Earth file, or browse the map below.

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Vic redistribution finalised – the end of Batman

The Australian Electoral Commission released the final decisions for the Victorian federal redistribution earlier today. Most of the changes were very minor, with no seats experiencing a large change in margin. The switch of Dunkley from Liberal to notional Labor has been maintained.

We have seen two changes in seat names. The seat of Cox has been restored to its previous name of Corangamite. While they noted the concern about the double-entendre in the name, the decision has supposedly been made due to the longstanding use of the name Corangamite.

The AEC is also renaming the seat of Batman in Melbourne’s inner north to ‘Cooper’. This name honours early 20th century Aboriginal leader William Cooper. The report specifically mentions his role in founding the Australian Aborigines League in the 1930s, and his protests against Nazi Germany in 1938. This is the culmination of a long campaign to abolish this seat name.

Overall we will see eight new seat names at the next federal election. Batman is not the only seat named after an early white settler to be renamed in part due to that man’s genocidal history – the seat of McMillan in eastern Victoria has been renamed ‘Monash’.

The announcement today just included descriptions of how the boundaries have been changed since the first draft. There are no maps and no data. So it’s possible there might be small errors in my margin calculations. I will put together the updated map over the weekend, although I’ll double-check the boundaries when the official map is released on July 13.

I also expect we’ll be getting the final boundaries for ACT and South Australia over the next week.

The table below the fold lists the margin in every Victorian seat, before the redistribution, on the draft boundaries and on the final boundaries. I discovered a small bug in my margin calculation code so there may be some small changes (around 0.1% in most cases) even where boundaries haven’t changed, but I’ve included the previously-published margins for transparency.

Read the rest of this entry »

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Federal election guides – they keep coming

I’ve been continuing to post a seat guide every day recently, with fifteen more posted since I last posted on the front page. They tend to be safer Liberal seats, but there are still some interesting conversations:

For those of you who are particularly interested in electoral redistributions, you might find the comments under the Hume seat guide interesting. Hume has an odd shape, with the seat bisected by parts of the Southern Highlands which are in the seat of Whitlam. There’s been a bunch of suggestions about how changes to seats in the Illawarra and the south-east could result in Hume getting tidied up.

Finally, this is another reminder that I’m running a donation drive to fund the new podcast. My goal was for eighteen new patrons. I’m now at six. I promise if we can hit this target this week I’ll stop bugging you about donating for a while. You can donate via Patreon.

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The latest guides – May 4

The front of this website has been quiet recently, but I’ve been regularly posting a new federal seat guide every day, so be sure to check in occasionally. The ten most recent guides are listed on the right-hand side of the front page.

Remember, if you’d like me to prioritise a particular seat (including any seat in the Victorian or NSW state elections) you can do so by pledging to donate $5 or more per month via Patreon.

I’ll be back tomorrow night with the coverage of the Tasmanian upper house election tomorrow night. See you then!

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This week’s guides – April 21

There are eight new seat guides up on the website since I last updated last Friday.

These will continue to pop up, one per day, for the next few months.