ALP 1.1%
Incumbent MP
Graham Perrett, since 2007.
Geography
Southern Brisbane. Moreton covers suburbs on the southern side of the Brisbane River to the south of the centre of Brisbane, including Sunnybank, Runcorn, Eight Mile Plains, Acacia Ridge, Coopers Plains, Rocklea, Salisbury, Moorooka, Oxley, Corinda, Graceville and Fairfield.
History
Moreton is an original federation electorate. For most of its history it has been held by the Liberal Party and its predecessors, who held the seat from 1906 until 1990, but since 1990 it has become a bellwether seat, being won by the party that won the election nationally.
Moreton was won in 1901 by independent labour candidate James Wilkinson, a former member of the colonial Legislative Assembly. Wilkinson was re-elected as an independent in 1903, and rejoined the ALP in 1904.
Wilkinson lost Moreton in 1906 to Anti-Socialist candidate Hugh Sinclair. Sinclair held the seat for over a decade, representing the Commonwealth Liberal Party and the Nationalist Party until his retirement in 1919.
Sinclair was succeeded in Moreton by former state MP Arnold Wienholt, also a Nationalist. Wienholt only held the seat for one term, retiring in 1922.
The seat was won in 1922 by Nationalist candidate Joseph Francis. Francis held the seat for over three decades. He served as a minister in the first term of the Lyons government from 1932 to 1934, and again served as a minister from the election of the Menzies government in 1949 until his retirement in 1955.
Moreton was won in 1955 by Liberal candidate James Killen. Killen was on the right wing of the Liberal Party, and held the seat for the next 29 years. At the 1961 election the Menzies government barely held on, and Killen’s seat of Moreton was the closest result. Indeed, Killen only held on due to Communist Party preferences leaking away from the Labor candidate. Killen served as a minister in the Gorton government from 1969 until 1971 but was dropped by William McMahon when he became Prime Minister.
Killen served as Minister for Defence in the Fraser government from 1975 until 1982, when a reshuffle saw him moved into a more junior role for the final year of the Fraser government. He retired in 1983 after the defeat of the Fraser government, triggering a by-election.
The ensuing by-election was won by Liberal candidate Donald Cameron. Cameron had previously held the seat of Griffith from 1966 to 1977, and then the seat of Fadden until the 1983 election, when he was defeated. He returned to Parliament as Member for Moreton and held it until the 1990 election, when he was defeated by Labor candidate Garrie Gibson, ending 84 years of Moreton being held by conservative parties.
Gibson held the seat until the 1996 election, when he lost to Liberal candidate Gary Hardgrave. Hardgrave served as a junior minister from 2001 until January 2007, when he was removed from the ministry in a reshuffle. Hardgrave lost the 2007 election to Labor candidate Graham Perrett.
Perrett’s 6% margin was cut to just over 1% in 2010.
Candidates
Sitting Labor MP Graham Perrett is running for re-election. The Liberal National Party is again running 2010 candidate Malcolm Cole. The Greens are running 2010 candidate Elissa Jenkins.
Assessment
Moreton is very marginal and in recent decades has swung as a bellwether. A uniform swing that gave Moreton to the LNP would give the Coalition 78 seats in the House.
2010 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Malcolm Cole | LNP | 35,182 | 43.40 | +2.56 |
| Graham Perrett | ALP | 29,190 | 36.01 | -12.12 |
| Elissa Jenkins | GRN | 12,882 | 15.89 | +8.74 |
| Steve Christian | FF | 2,787 | 3.44 | +1.97 |
| Lee Nightingale | DLP | 1,018 | 1.26 | +1.26 |
2010 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Graham Perrett | ALP | 41,447 | 51.13 | -4.88 |
| Malcolm Cole | LNP | 39,612 | 48.87 | +4.88 |
Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into three areas:
- North-East – Annerley, Fairfield, Moorooka, Moorvale, Rocklea, Tarragindi, Tennyson, Wellers Hill, Yeronga.
- South – Acacia Ridge, Coopers Plains, Eight Mile Plains, Kuraby, Macgregor, Robertson, Runcorn, Salisbury, Sunnybank, Warrigal.
- West – Chelmer, Corinda, Graceville, Oxley, Sherwood.
The south makes up a majority of votes cast. The ALP won a 56% majority in the north-east, and the LNP narrowly won in the south and west.
Polling booths in Moreton at the 2010 federal election. North-East in blue, South in green, West in orange.
| Voter group | GRN % | ALP 2CP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| South | 12.75 | 49.73 | 34,244 | 42.22 |
| North-East | 20.86 | 56.43 | 16,618 | 20.50 |
| West | 17.75 | 48.44 | 11,463 | 14.14 |
| Other votes | 16.09 | 50.65 | 18,754 | 23.14 |
Two-party-preferred votes in Moreton at the 2010 federal election.
Greens primary votes in Moreton at the 2010 federal election.
This is my home seat. I only moved here last year, but from what I’ve seen of the current member, Graham Perrett, he seems like a relatively good local member.
It doesn’t really bother me who wins the election overall, but I hope the ALP can take some votes back off the Greens, particularly in the northern section of the seat (my area).
Perrett has to be good. Any Labor MP or candidate in marginal or fairly safe seats to have held on against the Queensland backlash over the ousting of Kevvie in 2010 has to be good. D’Ath in Petrie is similar in that respect. Perrett arguably should be dead meat as far as the next election is concerned – but Newman’s public service job cuts might save him.
This is one Queensland seat where Labor may not do as badly, I still think they’ll lose due to having such a wafer thin margin. However, Graham Perrett is a good local member, and due to the State Member Carl Judge leaving the LNP fold, people may be hesitant to vote LNP federally in this seat. Labor could successfully sandbag this seat.
I agree with electionlova on this Graham Perret is pushing hard !
I agree with Warren Grzic. I am a long time Labor voter and reside in the heart of the Moreton electorate and also believe that Graham Perrett will lose this seat. Most voters seem to distinguish between Federal and State issues such as Premier Newmans Public service job cuts and this will not save Graham Perrett in Moreton. Just ask Victorian voters in 1996 federal election when Jeff Kennetts Public Service job cuts did not prevent Labor losing some seats there.
Sports Bet as of tonight have the following odds for the winner in Moreton: $1.20 Coalition, $4.00 Labor.
Update on latest odds from Sports Bet on the winner in Moreton: Labor has firmed from $4.00 to $3.65 whist the Coalition has drifted slightly from $1.20 to $1.24. However, I still believe Graham Perrett is on track to lose this seat especially as the current Prime Minister is unpopular in Queensland.
The recent polls show there is a about a 4 to 5 two party preferred swing to the Coalition in Queensland since the 2010 election. On these figures Moreton will be the first seat to fall to the Coalition in Queensland.
Well thats it for Mr Perrett, I had some confidence for him in February but now being March 26th 2013 the electorate have had enough.
Mr Perrett has openly backed Ms Gillard and I feel that this will place a BIG RED TARGET on his back and he will suffer a swing of 7.0% plus against him.
Surprisingly the latest Sports Bet odds in Moreton show that Labor has firmed from $3.65 to $2.75 and the Coalition has drifted from $1.24 to $1.40.
However, I still believe that Graham Perrett will lose his seat especially as the recent polls have Labor heading for a result like the 1975 or 1977 election loss.
I can’t see Labor holding on to seats with large Green votes. The Greens will lose a lot of votes here and that can only help the LNP. Yes Perrett is a good local but he is without a sophomore surge this time and therefore, this is already built into his vote.
I also question whether the Greens will actually win a Senate seat in QLD this time.
I agree DB. There has been little movement in Sports Bet odds in this seat in recent weeks but it still shows the Coalition are strongly favoured to win this seat. Apart from the large Green votes, there is still strong unpopularity with the Labor brand and the Prime Minister in Queensland. Therefore, this makes it difficult for members like Graham Perrett, especially in a marginal seat, to retain it for the government.
This morning the latest odds from Centrebet on the winner in Moreton show that Labor has drifted from $3.40 to $3.60 whilst the LNP has firmed from $1.24 to $1.22. Therefore, Graham Perrett who is my local member will need a miracle to retain this seat for the government.
These results with recent opinion polls show that Labor is heading for a federal election loss in terms of two party preferred votes results similar to 1975.
Lurch – actually worse based on the 4 major polls this week
Thanks DB – I also noticed the 2 party preferred votes in the 4 major polls this week. If the two party preferred vote in Queensland drops below 39.8% which was achieved in 1975 then Labor will only hold one seat – Griffith.
More bad news for my local member Graham Perrett.
The momentum continues with the Coalition in Moreton with the latest Sports Bet odds showing that Labor has drifted from $2.75 to $2.90 whilst the LNP has firmed from $1.40 to $1.35.
Bad news continues for my local member Graham Perrett.
The momentum is still with the Coalition in Moreton. This afternoon, the odds from Centrebet on the winner in this seat show that the LNP has firmed from $1.22 to $1.15 whilst Labor has drifted from $3.60 to $4.05.
Lurch – I’ve heard internal Labor polling puts this at about 57/43 to the Coalition so I suspect there is some insider knowledge movement here in the betting. I haven’t seen Liberal polling in this area for a while.
That’s an eight percent swing… Seen statewide only Rudd would keep his seat.