Moreton – Australia 2013

ALP 1.1%

Incumbent MP
Graham Perrett, since 2007.

Geography
Southern Brisbane. Moreton covers suburbs on the southern side of the Brisbane River to the south of the centre of Brisbane, including Sunnybank, Runcorn, Eight Mile Plains, Acacia Ridge, Coopers Plains, Rocklea, Salisbury, Moorooka, Oxley, Corinda, Graceville and Fairfield.

History
Moreton is an original federation electorate. For most of its history it has been held by the Liberal Party and its predecessors, who held the seat from 1906 until 1990, but since 1990 it has become a bellwether seat, being won by the party that won the election nationally.

Moreton was won in 1901 by independent labour candidate James Wilkinson, a former member of the colonial Legislative Assembly. Wilkinson was re-elected as an independent in 1903, and rejoined the ALP in 1904.

Wilkinson lost Moreton in 1906 to Anti-Socialist candidate Hugh Sinclair. Sinclair held the seat for over a decade, representing the Commonwealth Liberal Party and the Nationalist Party until his retirement in 1919.

Sinclair was succeeded in Moreton by former state MP Arnold Wienholt, also a Nationalist. Wienholt only held the seat for one term, retiring in 1922.

The seat was won in 1922 by Nationalist candidate Joseph Francis. Francis held the seat for over three decades. He served as a minister in the first term of the Lyons government from 1932 to 1934, and again served as a minister from the election of the Menzies government in 1949 until his retirement in 1955.

Moreton was won in 1955 by Liberal candidate James Killen. Killen was on the right wing of the Liberal Party, and held the seat for the next 29 years. At the 1961 election the Menzies government barely held on, and Killen’s seat of Moreton was the closest result. Indeed, Killen only held on due to Communist Party preferences leaking away from the Labor candidate. Killen served as a minister in the Gorton government from 1969 until 1971 but was dropped by William McMahon when he became Prime Minister.

Killen served as Minister for Defence in the Fraser government from 1975 until 1982, when a reshuffle saw him moved into a more junior role for the final year of the Fraser government. He retired in 1983 after the defeat of the Fraser government, triggering a by-election.

The ensuing by-election was won by Liberal candidate Donald Cameron. Cameron had previously held the seat of Griffith from 1966 to 1977, and then the seat of Fadden until the 1983 election, when he was defeated. He returned to Parliament as Member for Moreton and held it until the 1990 election, when he was defeated by Labor candidate Garrie Gibson, ending 84 years of Moreton being held by conservative parties.

Gibson held the seat until the 1996 election, when he lost to Liberal candidate Gary Hardgrave. Hardgrave served as a junior minister from 2001 until January 2007, when he was removed from the ministry in a reshuffle. Hardgrave lost the 2007 election to Labor candidate Graham Perrett.

Perrett’s 6% margin was cut to just over 1% in 2010.

Candidates

  • Graham Perrett (Labor)
  • Wayne Grunert (Citizens Electoral Council)
  • Chris Mallcott (Katter’s Australian Party)
  • Hayden Muscat (Future Party)
  • Carolyn Ferrando (Family First)
  • Malcolm Cole (Liberal National)
  • Jeremy Davey (Palmer United Party)
  • Bruce Fry (Rise Up Australia)
  • Elissa Jenkins (Greens)

Assessment
Moreton is very marginal and in recent decades has swung as a bellwether. A uniform swing that gave Moreton to the LNP would give the Coalition 78 seats in the House.

2010 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Malcolm Cole LNP 35,182 43.40 +2.56
Graham Perrett ALP 29,190 36.01 -12.12
Elissa Jenkins GRN 12,882 15.89 +8.74
Steve Christian FF 2,787 3.44 +1.97
Lee Nightingale DLP 1,018 1.26 +1.26

2010 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Graham Perrett ALP 41,447 51.13 -4.88
Malcolm Cole LNP 39,612 48.87 +4.88

Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into three areas:

  • North-East – Annerley, Fairfield, Moorooka, Moorvale, Rocklea, Tarragindi, Tennyson, Wellers Hill, Yeronga.
  • South – Acacia Ridge, Coopers Plains, Eight Mile Plains, Kuraby, Macgregor, Robertson, Runcorn, Salisbury, Sunnybank, Warrigal.
  • West – Chelmer, Corinda, Graceville, Oxley, Sherwood.

The south makes up a majority of votes cast. The ALP won a 56% majority in the north-east, and the LNP narrowly won in the south and west.

Polling booths in Moreton at the 2010 federal election. North-East in blue, South in green, West in orange.
Voter group GRN % ALP 2CP % Total votes % of votes
South 12.75 49.73 34,244 42.22
North-East 20.86 56.43 16,618 20.50
West 17.75 48.44 11,463 14.14
Other votes 16.09 50.65 18,754 23.14
Two-party-preferred votes in Moreton at the 2010 federal election.
Greens primary votes in Moreton at the 2010 federal election.

109 COMMENTS

  1. The LNP had dominated road sides etc before the leader change. I believe the main road side push was in Bonner and Griffith for the YLNP on the weekend.

  3. Yeah,l before the leadership change, I was definitely seeing far more LNP roadsides across Griffith, Moreton, Oxley and Brisbane (the seats I most commonly drive around).

    In fact, before the change, I would say it would have been a 10-1 outnumbering.

    Since, there have been far more ALP roadsides, particularly in Griffith and Moreton.

  4. Continued surge of support for Rudd Labor in this electorate.

    This afternoon, Sports Bet odds in Moreton show support for Labor strengthens from $1.67 to $1.55 whilst support for the LNP drifts from $2.10 to $2.30. The momentum is also mirrored in the latest Centrebet odds in this seat with support for Labor firming from $1.60 to $1.50 whilst support for the LNP easing from $2.20 to $2.40.

  5. @ Glen

    Do I understand what you said. Perhaps you do not understand my argument. Yes, the PM’s home state always does perform better. My argument suggests that Rudd’s pull will not be as strong as it was in 07 or 10 (when he was knifed). The best evidence you could find was by posting an article written in 2010… my point exactly.

    I think this original argument stemmed from the posting of the latest betting odds. My reading of the political situation is that Rudd will not pull as strong as the current polls suggest in QLD and I do think the LNP will win a couple of seats, in particular, Moreton.

    However, to suggest that Rudd will prevent any loss of seats in QLD, I think ignores the political reality. It has been 3 years since Rudd was knife and it has been a further 3 years of an ordinary government (whether Rudd was leading it or not).

    I am confident the LNP will pick up Moreton (if it is ONLY that seat).

    @morgieb

    I take offence to the comment that I am a hack. I don’t think it is difficult to argue that Moreton is an achievable win by the LNP. I think the LNP faces challenges in retaining Brisbane.

    I think you should carefully reconsider my thoughts about Oxley. I understand this is a Moreton thread, so will keep my comments short. People underestimated what Nguyen could do in Richlands in 2008 and ended up scoring the highest 2PP in Council. Again, I think people are underestimating what is possible in Oxley in 2013. Seats never swing uniformly and if there will be an outlier in QLD… it will be Oxley. We can continue to debate this in the Oxley thread.

  6. Rosemary, you have proven with your newest comment that you have no interest in understanding what I’ve said, and that you’re more interested in applying your personal political preference to the electorate in order to form a prediction than in actually understanding the electorate.

    Unless you have something stronger to base your prediction on than “I think the ALP government was and is weak, and that’s why the LNP will pick up seats in QLD”, I’m not interested in continuing this discussion.

  7. Support for the Coalition according to Centrebet.

    This afternoon, Centrebet odds in Moreton shows support for Labor drifts from $1.50 to $1.55 whilst support for the LNP firms from $2.40 to $2.30.

  8. Support for Rudd Labor according to Sports Bet.

    Currently, Sports Bet odds in Moreton shows support for Labor tightens from $1.55 to $1.40 whilst support for the LNP eases from $2.30 to $2.75.

  9. If the ALP is relying on Queensland than the news I heard this morning is not good. The LNP is very confident that Malcolm Cole is still in front in Moreton and by a decent enough margin.

    Combine the news that Moreton is still in the LNP win column along with the polling in Tasmania and NSW and it suggests the ALP won’t win.

  10. QO – Absolutely correct. I reckon Labor are set to lose this seat unless something drastic changes. At $2.75, probably the best bet of the election.

  11. Hey DB, is there some way we can exchange a private message? Not sure in Ben can organize that.

  12. I received my first glossy election pamphlet in the mail this afternoon from local member Graham Perrett. The double sided flyer is titled “Kevin and Graham” “Fighting for the Southside!”.

    The content of the pamphlet has pictures of Graham Perrett with members of the community selling the Governments achievements such as pension increases, tax reform and education funding.

    I have not received any material yet from the other candidates including LNP opponent, Malcolm Cole.

  13. I received my first piece of LNP election material with a direct mail letter from Tony Abbott promoting “Our Plan” with an enclosed postal vote application form.

    DB, I noticed that there is encouraging news for the LNP according to the latest Sports Bet odds in my seat. This afternoon, Sports Bet odds in Moreton shows that support for Labor eases from $1.40 to $1.50 whilst support for the LNP tightens from $2.75 to $2.50.

  15. Betting markets are largely irrelevant at this stage – the tracking polls that incorporate all the opinion polls are a much more informative guide at this stage I reckon. Bludgertrack offers state breakdowns as well.

  16. This afternoon, I received the same direct mail letter from Tony Abbott promoting “Our Plan” with an enclosed postal vote application form.

    Am I the only elector in Moreton receiving this duplicate direct mail letter from Tony Abbott?

    Are any other federal electorates receiving this duplicate direct mail letter from Tony Abbott?

  18. Got it in my seat. The postal is quite clever. Looks like an aec and aus post official one. Uses a lot of aus post red on it. It does have the Candidate on it once, but apart from that it is impressive. U may not even realize u r posting it to the LNP.

  19. Encouraging news for the LNP according to Sports Bet.

    This afternoon, Sports Bet odds in Moreton shows support for Labor drifts from $1.50 to $1.57 whilst support for the LNP firms from $2.50 to $2.30.

  20. The other day I received postal vote information from both Malcolm Cole and Graham Perrett. Thankfully this will be the first federal election that I can vote on actually on the day (previously always working Saturdays), so I don’t have to worry about it.

  21. Momentum for the LNP according to the betting agencies.

    This evening, Sports Bet odds in Moreton shows support for Labor eases from $1.57 to $1.75 whilst support for the LNP tightens from $2.30 to $2.00. Currently, Centrebet odds in this electorate shows support for Labor drifts from $1.55 to $1.70 whilst support for the LNP firms from $2.30 to $2.05.

  22. Encouraging news for Labor according to Centrebet.

    Currently, Centrebet odds in Moreton shows support for Labor tightens from $1.70 to $1.65 whilst support for the LNP eases from $2.05 to $2.15.

  23. Surge for the LNP according to Sports Bet.

    Currently, Sports Bet odds in Moreton shows support for Labor drifts from $1.75 to $1.85 whilst support for the LNP firms from $2.00 to $1.85.

  26. I’m with DB. I think the Coalition are in the driver’s seat now. The shine is starting to wear off from Rudd and the announcement of Peter Beattie.

  27. I live in this electorate. The ALP workers seem really uninspired whereas the LNP are out there in droves on the weekends and at my railway station.

  28. Coalition hits the lead according to Sports Bet.

    Currently, Sports Bet odds in Moreton shows support for Labor eases from $1.85 to $1.95 whilst support for the LNP tightens from $1.85 to $1.80.

  30. I haven’t heard much new since the start of the week, but the insider I know on the Cole campaign is very confident.

  31. Further Blow to Labor according to the betting sites.

    This morning, Sports Bet odds in Moreton shows support for Labor drifts from $1.95 to $2.00 whilst support for the LNP firms from $1.80 to $1.75. Currently, Centrebet odds in this electorate shows support for Labor eases from $1.65 to $1.80 whilst support for the LNP tightens from $2.15 to $1.95.

  32. Coalition also hits the lead according to Centrebet.

    Currently, Centrebet odds in Moreton shows support for Labor drifts from $1.80 to $1.95 whilst support for the LNP firms from $1.95 to $1.80.

  33. Another surge of support for the Coalition according to Centrebet.

    Currently, Centrebet odds in Moreton shows support for Labor eases from $1.95 to $2.25 whilst support for the LNP tightens from $1.80 to $1.58.

  34. Rudd was campaigning in this seat this morning. I think this is the best sort of indicator of the major parties internal polling. I would appear this seat is in the mix as a Coalition gain. This pretty much aligns with what I have seen in the seat.

  35. DB, it’s not 100% clear. They campaigned by going to a school that is “under review” by the Newman government. They may have gone there for that reason, rather than to specifically bolster Labor’s campaign in Moreton.

  36. Glen, I have been around campaigns for a long long time. Leaders only campaign in seats they think they can win or are at risk unless they have a precommitment to a meeting or briefing.

    At the moment, no one can can argue that Abbott is campaigning in ALP held marginals (except Hasluck) and Rudd is campaigning in ALP held marginals. That shows what internal polling is indicating.

    The fact that Rudd was in Wakefield further suggests large swings expected in SA, which I have said for some time.

  37. I’ve been thinking a lot about Labor’s strategy in Queensland and why it isn’t working (as we’re seen both the polls and betting markets return to at least a coalition win). Labor’s been trying to say that Abbott will cut the public service the way Newman has – but this clearly isn’t swaying voters because the ones who dislike the cuts most are generally already voting Labor.

    That’s why I don’t think it makes that great a difference that Rudd has been campaigning in Moreton today over the Nyanda State High School issue – swinging voters don’t really care.

    If Rudd and Perrett want to win, they need to majorly change tack.

  38. I don’t think focusing on schools is a bad idea, given parents of all political persuasions send their children to them, therefore are more directly affected than say, the sacking of paper shufflers in Canberra.

  39. I agree that focusing on schools is a good idea, but I just don’t think the focus on cuts is working – People are generally intelligent enough to understand that school closures are a state issue, not a federal one.

    Full disclosure: I lost my job at Transport and Main Roads last year.

    I think Labor would get more traction if they focused on school investment or curriculum reform. Basically, I don’t think people care enough about public service cuts for it to be a major issue.

  40. Plus, I think it erodes Labor’s ‘positive new way’ message when they focus on what terrible things the opposition will do, as opposed to the good things they will do.

  41. Coalition extends its lead according to Sports Bet.

    Currently, Sports Bet odds in Moreton shows support for Labor drifts from $2.00 to $2.50 whilst support for the LNP firms from $1.75 to $1.50.

  43. Another blow to Labor according to the betting sites.

    This afternoon, Sports Bet odds in Moreton shows support for Labor drifts from $2.50 to $2.75 whilst support for the LNP firms from $1.50 to $1.40. Currently, Centrebet odds in this electorate shows support for Labor eases from $2.25 to $2.30 whilst support for the LNP tightens from $1.58 to $1.55.

  44. I received the Liberal HTV card in my junk mail today:
    1 – LNP
    2 – Family First
    3 – KAP
    4 – PUP
    5 – Future Party
    6 – Labor
    7 – Rise Up Australia
    8 – Greens
    9 – CEC

  45. Some encouragement for Labor according to Sports Bet.

    Currently, Sports Bet odds in Moreton shows support for Labor firms from $2.75 to $2.30 whilst support for the LNP drifts from $1.40 to $1.55.

  46. More bad news for Labor according to Sports Bet.

    Currently, Sports Bet odds in Moreton shows support for Labor slips from $2.30 to $2.60 whilst support for the LNPtightens from $1.55 to $1.45.

  47. Momentum continues for the Coalition according to Sports Bet.

    This afternoon, Sports Bet odds in Moreton shows support for Labor eases from $2.60 to $2.65 whilst support for the LNP firms from $1.45 to $1.40.

  50. More bad news for Graham Perrett and Labor according to Centrebet.

    This afternoon, Centrebet odds in Moreton shows support for Labor drifts from $2.30 to $2.75 whilst support for the LNP tightens from $1.55 to $1.40.

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