Kavel – SA 2018

LIB 14.1%

Incumbent MP
Mark Goldsworthy, since 2002.

Geography
Regional South Australia. Kavel covers areas to the east of Adelaide, with most of the seat lying in the Adelaide Hills, as well as the town of Mount Barker.

Redistribution
Kavel shifted south, losing Birdwood, Gumeracha, Lobethal and Mount Torrens to Morialta; and Callington, Kanmantoo and Monarto South to Hammond. Kavel expanded to take in areas immediately to the south of Mount Barker.

History
The electorate of Kavel has existed since the 1970 election. The seat has been always held by the Liberal Party.

Roger Goldsworthy won Kavel in 1970. Goldsworthy served as Deputy Leader of the Liberal Party from 1975 to 1982, first as Deputy Leader of the Opposition, and then from 1979 as Premier.

Goldsworthy was re-elected seven times, and resigned in 1992 to provide an opportunity for John Olsen to return to the state Parliament.

Olsen had been first elected to the House of Assembly as Member for Rocky River in 1979. Olsen was elected Liberal leader following the party’s defeat at the 1982 election, defeating his rival Dean Brown. He moved to the new seat of Custance in 1985, after Rocky River was abolished.

Olsen led the Liberal Party to defeat at the 1985 and 1989 elections, and in 1990 resigned from Parliament to run for the Senate at the 1990 election.

Olsen served barely two years in the Senate, before he resigned to run for the 1992 Kavel by-election. On the same day, Dean Brown returned to Parliament at the Alexandra by-election. Brown defeated Olsen for the Liberal leadership.

Brown led the Liberal Party to victory at the 1993 election, and became Premier. Olsen faced Brown for a third leadership ballot in 1996, and won the leadership, and became Premier.

Olsen led the Liberal Party to narrow victory at the 1997 election. In 2001, he was forced to resign as Premier due to the Motorola affair. He retired at the 2002 state election.

Mark Goldsworthy, son of former MP Roger Goldsworthy, won the seat of Kavel in 2002. He was re-elected in 2006, 2010 and 2014. Goldsworthy was challenged in 2002 and 2006 by Tom Playford, son of the former Premier, first as an independent and then for Family First.

Candidates
Sitting Liberal MP Mark Goldsworthy is not running for re-election.

Assessment
Kavel would normally be considered a safe Liberal seat, but it is a strong area for Nick Xenophon’s party. Kavel was the second-highest polling seat in the state for NXT at the 2016 Senate election, with a vote of 37.1% after the distribution of minor party preferences. The Liberal Party will also be weakened by the retirement of the sitting MP, so it would not be surprising if SA Best won this seat.

2014 election result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Mark Goldsworthy Liberal 12,11654.4-1.254.6
Richard Hilton Labor 4,83821.7-2.021.8
Ian Grosser Greens 3,48115.6+2.916.2
Darryl StottFamily First1,8548.3+2.96.8
Dignity for Disability0.6
Informal6552.9

2014 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Mark Goldsworthy Liberal 14,25864.0-1.864.1
Richard Hilton Labor 8,03136.0+1.835.9

Booth breakdown

Booths in Kavel have been divided into three areas: Mount Barker, central and north.

The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 61.5% in Mount Barker to 68% in the north.

The Greens vote ranged from 14.5% in the north to 17.7% in Mount Barker.

Voter groupGRN prim %LIB 2PP %Total votes% of votes
Mount Barker17.761.57,23335.9
Central16.264.43,74218.6
North14.568.03,57617.8
Other votes15.563.95,57327.7

Election results in Kavel at the 2014 SA state election
Click on the ‘visible layers’ box to toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Greens primary votes.

Become a Patron!

About the Author

Ben Raue is the founder and author of the Tally Room.If you like this post, please consider donating to support the Tally Room.