Central – Brisbane 2016

Council margin – LNP 9.4%
Mayoral margin – LNP 16.9%

Incumbent councillor
Vicki Howard, since 2012.

Geography
Central Brisbane. The Central ward covers the Brisbane CBD along with the suburbs of Spring Hill, New Farm, Newstead and Fortitude Valley.

Map of Central's 2012 and 2016 boundaries. 2012 boundaries marked as red lines, 2016 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.
Map of Central’s 2012 and 2016 boundaries. 2012 boundaries marked as red lines, 2016 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.

Redistribution
Central ward gained the remainder of Bowen Hills and Newstead from Hamilton and lost the remainder of Grange, Newmarket and Wilston to Enoggera, and the remainder of Kelvin Grove to Paddington. These changes increased the LNP council margin from 8.7% to 9.4%, and the mayoral margin from 16.7% to 16.9%.

History
Labor’s David Hinchliffe won Central ward in 1988. For most of his tenure, Central was considered a safe Labor seat. In 2000 he polled over 63% of the primary vote, and after that election the Labor vote began to collapse. In 2004, Hinchliffe suffered a 15.6% swing, with a swing of over 17% to the Greens. Hinchliffe held on with a 12% margin.

The 2008 changes significantly weakened Labor, with their 12% margin falling to only 8.4%. At the subsequent election, Hinchliffe only managed to win by 102 votes, or a 0.3% margin.

David Hinchliffe retired in 2012, and Labor’s candidate selection was a mess. The original candidate Paul Crowther was replaced by Grace Grace after she lost her overlapping state seat at the 2012 state election.

The Electoral Commission ruled that state election candidates could not stand in the local government election due to the overlapping timetable, and thus Grace was replaced by Heather Beattie, wife of the former Premier.

Beattie lost to LNP candidate Vicki Howard with an 8.9% swing – a combined swing of 17% over two elections. On a primary vote, the Labor vote in Central dropped from 63.4% in 2000 to 30.5% in 2012.

Candidates

Assessment
Central was traditionally very safe for the ALP, but a combined swing of 17% to the LNP over the last two elections, along with a sizeable part of the Greens vote exhausting, has given the LNP a sizeable margin.

Considering the ward’s history, Labor would be hoping to win back Central.

2012 council result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Heather Beattie Labor 6,09630.5-9.152.2
Vicki Howard Liberal National 10,28451.4+9.529.7
Rachael Jacobs Greens 3,61318.1+1.518.1
Informal3721.8

2012 council two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Vicki Howard Liberal National 10,67258.7+8.959.4
Heather Beattie Labor 7,52541.4-8.940.6
Exhausted1,796

2012 mayoral result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Graham Quirk Liberal National 11,42857.20.057.3
Ray Smith Labor 4,56322.8-4.622.7
Andrew Bartlett Greens 3,58817.9+5.017.9
Rory KillenIndependent2411.2+1.21.2
Chris CarsonIndependent1750.9+0.90.9
Informal3361.7

2012 mayoral two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Graham Quirk Liberal National 11,73266.7+1.066.9
Ray Smith Labor 5,84933.3-1.033.1
Exhausted2,414
Polling places in Central at the 2012 Brisbane City Council election. East in green, North in blue, West in orange. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Central at the 2012 Brisbane City Council election. East in green, North in blue, West in orange. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Central have been split into three parts:

  • East (including New Farm)
  • North (Fortitude Valley, Ballymore and Newstead)
  • West (the CBD and Spring Hill)

The Liberal National Party’s two-party-preferred vote in the council election is only about 55% in the west, but is 65-67% in the east and north.

The Greens came third, with a vote ranging from 17.4% in the north to 19.7% in the west.

Voter groupGRN council primaryLNP council 2PPTotal votes% of votes
East18.465.05,71139.5
West19.755.02,43516.8
North17.466.81,79712.4
Other votes17.158.94,50931.2
Two-party-preferred votes for councillor in Central at the 2012 Brisbane City Council election.
Two-party-preferred votes for councillor in Central at the 2012 Brisbane City Council election.
Greens primary votes for councillor in Central at the 2012 Brisbane City Council election.
Greens primary votes for councillor in Central at the 2012 Brisbane City Council election.

LEAVE A REPLY

Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here