Herbert – Australia 2013

LNP 2.2%

Incumbent MP
Ewen Jones, since 2010.

Geography
Herbert covers the vast majority of the urban area in Townsville. It also covers rural areas to the west of Townsville which are contained in Townsville LGAs.

History
Herbert is an original federation seat. The seat originally covered most of North Queensland, from Mackay to the Torres Strait, but now is almost entirely based in Townsville. The seat has long been a marginal seat, and only three former MPs have managed to retire on their own terms.

The seat was first held by Fred Bamford, who held the seat for a quarter of a century. He was first elected as a Labor member and was expelled from the ALP over conscription in 1916. He served briefly as a minister under Billy Hughes and represented the Nationalists under his retirement in 1925.

At the 1925 election, Premier of Queensland Ted Theodore resigned from office in order to run for Herbert, but was surprisingly defeated by Lewis Nott of the Nationalists, who held the seat for one term. Nott later emerged as the first member for the Australian Capital Territory as an independent from 1949 to 1951.

George Martens won the seat for the ALP in 1928 and held it until his retirement in 1946. The seat was then held by Labor’s William Edmonds until 1958.

Edmonds was defeated that year by John Murray of the Liberal Party, who was defeated himself by the ALP’s  Ted Harding in 1961. Harding was defeated in 1966 by Robert Bonnett. The seat was then held solidly by the Liberal Party for a long period. Bonnett retired in 1977 and Arthur Dean held on to the seat for the Liberals from 1977 to 1983.

In 1983, Dean was defeated by the ALP’s Ted Lindsay, as part of Bob Hawke’s election win over Malcolm Fraser. Lindsay held the seat for the entirety of the Hawke/Keating government before being defeated in 1996 by Liberal candidate Peter Lindsay (no relation). Lindsay was re-elected four times, and retired in 2010.

The Liberal National Party’s Ewen Jones won the seat in 2010. The redistribution had made Herbert a very marginal notional Labor seat, but a swing of 2.2% saw Jones retain the seat for the LNP.

Candidates

  • Gail Hamilton (Greens)
  • Steve Moir (One Nation)
  • Nino Marolla (Rise Up Australia)
  • Bronwyn Walker (Katter’s Australian Party)
  • Ewen Jones (Liberal National)
  • Cathy O’Toole (Labor)
  • Michael Punshon (Family First)
  • Costa George (Sex Party)
  • Margaret Bell (Australian Voice)
  • Martin Brewster (Palmer United Party)

Assessment
Herbert is a very marginal LNP seat, and will be a seat Labor is hoping to win if there is a swing to Labor. It seems most likely that the LNP will hold on.

2010 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Ewen JonesLNP36,08645.67+2.14
Tony MooneyALP31,72940.15-3.12
Mike RubenachGRN6,9958.85+3.81
Michael PunshonFF4,2085.33+3.67

2010 two-candidate-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Ewen JonesLNP41,22152.17+2.20
Tony MooneyALP37,79747.83-2.20
Polling places in Herbert at the 2010 federal election. Islands in green, Mundingburra in orange, Rural in green, Thuringowa-Douglas in red, Townsville in blue. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Herbert at the 2010 federal election. Islands in green, Mundingburra in orange, Rural in green, Thuringowa-Douglas in red, Townsville in blue. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into five areas. Most of the seat’s population lies in the Townsville urban area, and these booths are divided into three areas: Townsville, Mundingburra and Thuringowa-Douglas. The remaining booths are divideed between those in the rural hinterland to the west of Townsville, and those on islands off the coast.

The LNP won a 55.5% majority in the rural part of the seat, and 54.4% in Thuringowa-Douglas. The ALP won a slim majority in Mundingburra and Townsville, and a larger majority on the islands.

Voter groupGRN %LNP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
Mundingburra8.9849.4824,50131.01
Thuringowa-Douglas7.9554.4121,91227.73
Townsville11.0249.968,36910.59
Rural7.0555.507,7879.85
Islands15.8246.581,6252.06
Other votes8.9453.3914,82418.76
Two-party-preferred votes in Herbert at the 2010 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Herbert at the 2010 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in the Mundingburra part of Herbert at the 2010 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in the Mundingburra part of Herbert at the 2010 federal election.

76 COMMENTS

  1. Another setback for Labor according to Sports Bet.

    Currently, Sports Bet odds in Herbert shows support for Labor eases from $3.20 to $3.50 whilst support for the LNP tightens from $1.30 to $1.25.

  2. Momentum for the Coalition according to Sports Bet.

    Currently, Sports Bet odds in Herbert shows support for Labor drifts from $3.50 to $4.25 whilst support for the LNP firms from $1.25 to $1.18.

  3. I wonder if Labor appearing to not have the traction we all expected in Queensland puts the KAP back in the game here.

  4. The Australian today reported that KAP will be directing preferences to the ALP in Herbert, Capricornia, Flynn & Hinkler. This could be fatal for the LNP here as they’ve usually only had small margins despite holding since 1996. KAP must surely get 10 – 20%. Lets say its only 12% and half of them would otherwise be LNP voters (6%) and half of these now follow the HTV, that’s worth 3%. I think the LNP only had a margin bigger than this in 2004.

  5. The KAP should get 20% minimum here if the state election is anything to go by. (30% primary vote in Thuringowa, 23% in Mundingburra and 22% in Townsville).

  6. As I have said all along, this could go either way. It will be interesting to see if KAP does poll as well this time given preferences in this seat and another 3 are going to flow to Labor ahead of the Coalition. Mind you, polling does show a strong primary vote for the Coalition and a very poor one for Labor.

  7. DB – I wonder how disciplined KAP voters will be with their how to vote cards. I don’t see them as being disciplined as the Greens who preference the ALP 80/20 over the Coalition. Also with the ALP having a low primary vote I don’t think this is much love for the ALP in North Qld. I would say an LNP retain.

  8. Coalition extends its lead according to Centrebet.

    Currently, Centrebet odds in Herbert shows support for Labor eases from $3.40 to $4.00 whilst support for the LNP tightens from $1.28 to $1.18.

  9. Another surge to the Coalition according to the betting sites.

    This afternoon, Sports Bet odds in Herbert shows support for Labor drifts from $4.25 to $5.50 whilst support for the LNP firms from $1.18 to $1.12. Currently, Centrebet odds in this electorate shows support for Labor eases from $4.00 to $4.25 whilst support for the LNP remains steady at $1.18.

  10. Encouragement for Labor according to Sports Bet.

    Currently, Sports Bet odds in Herbert shows support for Labor tightens from $5.50 to $4.50 whilst support for the LNP drifts from $1.12 to $1.17.

  11. A blow to Labor according to Centrebet.

    Currently, Centrebet odds in Herbert shows support for Labor slips from $4.25 to $4.80 whilst support for the LNP firms from $1.18 to $1.15.

  12. Please note that KAP is NOT giving preferences to Labor in Herbert as stated earlier. Also people need to understand that all political parties allocate preferences to advance the chances of success for their own party. It has little to nothing to do with similar policies, etc.

  13. Surge of support for the Coalition according to Sports Bet.

    Currently, Sports Bet odds in Herbert shows support for Labor eases from $4.50 to $6.00 whilst support for the LNP firms from $1.17 to $1.10.

  14. More bad news for Labor according to Centrebet.

    This afternoon, Centrebet odds in Herbert shows support for Labor drifts from $6.00 to $7.00 whilst support for the LNP remains steady at $1.08.

  15. Another surge of support for the Coalition acccording to the betting sites.

    This afternoon, Sports Bet odds in Herbert shows support for Labor crashes from $6.00 to $8.00 whilst support for the LNP tightens from $1.10 to $1.05. Currently, Centrebet odds in this electorate show support for Labor slips from $7.00 to $7.50 whilst support for the LNP firms from $1.08 to $1.06.

  16. Momentum continues for the Coalition according to Sports Bet.

    Currently, Sports Bet odds in Herbert shows support for Labor eases from $8.00 to $9.00 whilst support for the LNP tightens from $1.05 to $1.03.

  17. Gap continues to widen between the major parties according to Centrebet.

    Currently, Centrebet odds in Herbert shows support for Labor drifts from $7.50 to $9.00 whilst support for the LNP firms from $1.06 to $1.03.

Comments are closed.