Banks – Australia 2013

ALP 1.5%

Incumbent MP
Daryl Melham, since 1990.

Geography
Southern Sydney. Banks covers large parts of the St George area and neighbouring suburbs. It includes most of Hurstville council area,  a majority of Kogarah council area and parts of Bankstown and Canterbury council areas. Key suburbs include Padstow, Revesby, Hurstville, Mortdale, Peakhurst, Penshurst, Allawah, Oatley and Blakehurst.

History
Banks was created for the 1949 election, and has always been held by the ALP. The seat has mostly been a safe Labor seat, although the seat was very marginal at the 2001 and 2004 elections.

The seat was first won in 1949 by Labor candidate Dominic Costa. Costa held the seat for twenty years, always as a member of the opposition, retiring in 1969.

Vince Martin was elected in 1969, and held the seat until he was defeated for preselection in 1980 by John Mountford. Mountford held the seat until his retirement in 1990.

In 1990, Banks was won by Labor candidate Daryl Melham. Melham has held the seat ever since, serving in the Opposition shadow ministry from 1996 to 1998 and again from 2001 to 2004. Successive swings against the ALP wore his margin down to 1.06% in 2004, although a favourable redistribution before the 2007 election, combined with a swing of almost 8%, made the seat much safer.

In 2010, Melham suffered a swing of almost 11% on primary votes and almost 9% on two-party-preferred votes, which cut his margin to 1.5%.

Candidates

Assessment
Banks is held by a slim margin and wouldn’t require a large swing for the Liberal Party to win. However, despite often being a marginal seat the seat has never been won by the Liberal Party. It may be difficult for the Liberals to win more of a swing in addition to the large swing in 2010.

2010 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Ron Delezio LIB 38,178 45.52 +10.48
Daryl Melham ALP 36,034 42.96 -10.76
Paul Spight GRN 8,062 9.61 +3.21
Michael Parsons ON 1,595 1.90 +1.90

2010 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Daryl Melham ALP 43,150 51.45 -8.92
Ron Delezio LIB 40,719 48.55 +8.92

Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into six areas: Allawah-Blakehurst, Beverly Hills-Riverwood, Hurstville-Penshurst, Mortdale-Peakhurst, Padstow-Revesby, and the suburbs along the Georges River.

The ALP won majorities varying from 52% to 60% in four areas. The Liberal Party won a slim 53% margin in the easternmost area of Allawah-Blakehurst, and won a margin of over 61% in the riverside booths.

Polling booths in Banks at the 2010 federal election. Allawah-Blakehurst in red, Beverly Hills-Riverwood in orange, Georges River in yellow, Hurstville-Penshurst in purple, Mortdale-Peakhurst in green, Padstow-Revesby in blue.

Voter group GRN % ALP 2PP % Total votes % of votes
Hurstville-Penshurst 10.38 52.43 14,321 17.08
Mortdale-Peakhurst 9.62 52.04 12,806 15.27
Padstow-Revesby 7.67 56.27 10,821 12.90
Georges River 9.53 38.76 10,576 12.61
Beverly Hills-Riverwood 8.60 59.95 10,111 12.06
Allawah-Blakehurst 10.11 46.88 7,189 8.57
Other votes 10.57 51.85 18,045 21.52

Two-party-preferred votes in Banks at the 2010 federal election.