The biggest election to be held on Saturday will be for the City of Brisbane, which is Australia’s most populous and most powerful local government.
If you haven’t already checked out my guide to this election, you can read it here. The guide features profiles of all 26 wards, as well as a profile of the race for lord mayor. Each profile includes tables showing the results of the 2016 election as well as maps showing the voting patterns.
In this post I wanted to quickly run through some of the wards which could be important on Saturday night.
Labor currently holds five wards, alongside one Green and one independent. The other 19 are held by the Liberal National Party. My estimate of the impact of the redistribution sees one of those nineteen LNP wards flip to Labor, with Doboy’s margin changing from 4.3% LNP to 0.3% ALP.
So Labor would need a big change in wards to win a majority on council, or even deprive the LNP of its majority. A loss of five wards would push the LNP into minority, while a gain of eight wards would give Labor a majority.
There are six LNP wards held by margins of less than 6%. If these all flipped, then the council would be hung.
Four of these wards are north of the river, and two are to the south.
Northgate is the most marginal LNP ward in the city, and is held by a 1.7% margin. It covers parts of the north-east.
The Paddington ward covers the inner north-west, and is held by the LNP by a 5.8% margin. Paddington is the main target for the Greens, who came second here in 2016.