LIB 0.1% vs IND
Incumbent MP
Tim Wilson, since 2025. Previously 2016-2022.
Geography
Inner southern suburbs of Melbourne. Goldstein covers the entirety of Bayside council area, and parts of Glen Eira and Kingston council areas. Key suburbs include Sandringham, Brighton, Hampton, Beaumaris, Ormond and Bentleigh.
History
Goldstein was first created in 1984, but is considered a successor to the previous Division of Balaclava, which existed from the first federal election in 1901 until its abolition in 1984. The two seats have a perfect record of having never been won by the Labor Party, and they were held continously by the Liberal Party and its predecessors from when the two non-Labor parties merged in 1909, until 2022.
Balaclava was first won in 1901 by Protectionist candidate George Turner. Turner had been Premier of Victoria from 1894 to 1899 and again from 1900 until early in 1901, and was the state MP for St Kilda. Turner was Treasurer in Edmund Barton’s first federal government. He won re-election as a Protectionist in 1903 but he accepted the role of Treasurer in George Reid’s Free Trade government in 1904, which effectively saw him switch parties. Turner retired in 1906.
Balaclava was won in 1906 by Independent Protectionist candidate Agar Wynne. Wynne was a former minister in Victorian colonial governments. He joined the newly created Commonwealth Liberal Party in 1909 and served in Joseph Cook’s government from 1913 to 1914. Wynne did not run for re-election in 1914, although he returned to Victorian state politics from 1917 to 1920 and briefly served as a state minister.
Balaclava was won in 1914 by Liberal candidate William Watt. Watt had been Premier of Victoria from 1912 to 1914, and became a federal minister in 1917 as part of the new Nationalist government led by former Labor prime minister Billy Hughes. Watt was appointed Treasurer in 1918 and served as Acting Prime Minister when Hughes traveled to the Versailles peace conference in 1919.
Watt, however, fell out with Hughes upon his return. He was appointed as a representative of the Australian government at a conference on reparations, but Hughes’ constant meddling led him to resign as Treasurer and return to Australia as a backbencher.
Watt was one of a small group of rebel Liberals who ran as the Liberal Union party in 1922, and won re-election. They rejoined the Nationalists after Hughes was replaced by Stanley Bruce, and Watt became Speaker, serving in the role until 1926. He retired from Balaclava in 1929.
Watt’s retirement triggered a by-election, which was won by Nationalist candidate Thomas White. White served as a minister in the Lyons government from 1933 to 1938, and served as a minister from the election of the Menzies government in 1949 until his resignation in 1951.
Balaclava was won at the 1951 by-election by Liberal candidate Percy Joske. He held the seat until his resignation in 1960, when he was appointed as a judge on the Commonwealth Industrial Court. The 1960 by-election was won by Ray Whittorn, also from the Liberal Party. He held the seat until his retirement at the 1974 election.
Balaclava was won in 1974 by Ian Macphee, who served as a minister in the Fraser government from 1976 to 1983. In 1984, the seat of Balaclava was abolished and replaced by the seat of Goldstein, and Macphee won the new seat.
Macphee was a Liberal moderate, and took Andrew Peacock’s side in his conflict with John Howard throughout the 1980s. Macphee served as a shadow minister under Peacock, but was sacked in 1987 by Howard. He was defeated for preselection before the 1990 election by right-wing candidate David Kemp.
Kemp won Goldstein in 1990, and immediately went onto the opposition frontbench. Kemp joined the ministry upon the election of the Howard government in 1996, and served as a minister until three months before his retirement in 2004.
Goldstein was won in 2004 by the Liberal Party’s Andrew Robb, who had been the party’s Federal Director at the 1996 election. Robb was re-elected four times before retiring in 2016.
Robb was succeeded in 2016 by Tim Wilson, a former Human Rights Commissioner. Wilson was re-elected in 2019.
Wilson was defeated in 2022 by independent candidate Zoe Daniel. Daniel held Goldstein for one term. Wilson returned to the seat in 2025, very narrowly defeating Daniel.
Assessment
This section will be filled in closer to the election.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Tim Wilson | Liberal | 50,228 | 43.4 | +3.9 |
| Zoe Daniel | Independent | 35,533 | 30.7 | -0.6 |
| Nildhara Gadani | Labor | 15,812 | 13.7 | +0.1 |
| Alana Galli-McRostie | Greens | 8,320 | 7.2 | -1.2 |
| Leon Gardiner | One Nation | 2,037 | 1.8 | +0.3 |
| Vicki Jane Williams | Trumpet of Patriots | 2,066 | 1.8 | +1.8 |
| David Segal | Libertarian | 1,677 | 1.4 | +1.5 |
| Informal | 3,198 | 2.7 | -0.7 |
2025 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Tim Wilson | Liberal | 57,924 | 50.1 | +4.1 |
| Zoe Daniel | Independent | 57,749 | 49.9 | -4.1 |
2025 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Tim Wilson | Liberal | 62,427 | 54.0 | +0.3 |
| Nildhara Gadani | Labor | 53,246 | 46.0 | -0.3 |
Booths have been divided into four areas. Polling places in Bayside City or Kingston City have been split into three areas. From north to south, these are Brighton, Sandringham and Beaumaris. Booths in Glen Eira council area have been grouped together.
The Liberal Party only won the two-candidate-preferred vote in Brighton, with 53.3%. Zoe Daniel won in the other three areas, with a vote ranging from 52% in Beaumaris to 57% in Sandringham. The Liberal Party narrowly won the pre-poll vote and won the other votes more comfortably.
Labor came third, with a primary vote ranging from 9.4% in Brighton to 17.9% in Glen Eira.
| Voter group | ALP prim | LIB 2CP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Glen Eira | 17.9 | 43.3 | 16,492 | 14.3 |
| Sandringham | 14.3 | 43.0 | 12,168 | 10.5 |
| Brighton | 9.4 | 53.3 | 8,823 | 7.6 |
| Beaumaris | 11.9 | 48.0 | 8,134 | 7.0 |
| Pre-poll | 12.6 | 50.2 | 45,426 | 39.3 |
| Other votes | 14.5 | 57.3 | 24,630 | 21.3 |
Election results in Goldstein at the 2025 federal election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Liberal vs Independent), two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, independent candidate Zoe Daniel and Labor.
Dumping Net Zero will certain cost the Liberals a seat like this and seems that they are edging forward to that position.
Is Tim Wilson going to lose Goldstein and throw a hissy fit on live TV again? If the Liberals dump net zero, yes.
Plus, the Israel-Gaza conflict probably won’t be as much of an issue here. Zoe Daniel’s stance on the issue arguably cost her re-election (she was seen as sympathetic for a two state solution, while Wilson called himself a proud Zionist), as Caulfield had a fair swing against her.
@CJ another factor was the big postal vote for Tim Wilson, which probably can also be attributed to the Jewish voters who don’t vote on the Shabbat and voted by post in droves. In 2028 Gaza/Israel won’t be a defining issue as it was this year.
If Zoe Daniel contests Goldstein again in 2028 with the backdrop of the Libs lurching further right and dumping Net Zero then Wilson will be at risk.
@tommo labor and Daniel have just alienated the last remaining Jewish voters to the liberal party. They aren’t coming back
@ CJ and Tommo9
I do think John is correct and that Jewish voters feel angry and hurt and probably not coming back for some election cycles. The Israel-Palestine conflict is the most controversial issue on Earth and has already lasted longer than the Climate Wars. However, it works both ways, Muslim voters someone of who may have moved rightwards due to Social Conservativism and less Islamphobia before October 7th are now more likely to swing to the far left this will probably prevent Liberals winning state seat of Greenvale and make it harder to include Muslims in the Realignment theory which is what the right flank wants. However, in Goldstein Jews only make up 7.1% and even if there if a further swing to Libs it will not be enough if there is a big swing among Non Religious Anglos 42.4% of people in Goldstein have no Religion and if they swing to Teal due to Net Zero being jumped it is not enough even 85% of Jews vote Liberal. Also in 2028 there will be more Gen Z enrolled and some of the Greatest Generation and Silent Generation (born pre 1946) who voted in 2025 will be reunited with their creator and unable to vote for Tim Wilson.
You make a good point Nimalan. Even if there is no swing at all among 2025-28 voters, Tim Wilson’s 0.1% margin won’t survive generational turnover so he’d need a swing to him again to offset that.
In seats like this ‘generational turnover’ didn’t really occur across the last cycle, in fact the proportion of young people within these inner city areas often decreased while new boomers moved in. A not-much-talked-about factor in why the Greens went backwards in their seats and perhaps also what allowed Labor to overperform in the outer suburbs
200 vote victory in Goldstein
Very bad result
Whilst it’s true that younger people are being priced-out/moving out of inner city areas into the suburbs, the flip side is that it could indirectly/unintentionally benefit the left vote particularly in suburban areas. I say this with relevance to Goldstein because unlike Kooyong/Warringah/Wentworth etc. Goldstein (along with Mackellar arguably) is the most ‘outer-suburban’ teal seats in parliament at the moment, which means that if trends continue, it’s likely that the boomers will decrease in the area whilst the younger people moves into the outer edges which will give the left vote a fighting chance.
Also the areas that voted Labor in the new Goldstein (Ormond, Bentleigh, Moorabbin) kept the Teal vote competitive and had the Jewish vote not increased exponentially Zoe Daniel could’ve well kept the seat with a swing in her favour. Those areas are growing with younger families and are more diverse than Brighton/Caulfield so it’ll keep Goldstein competitive unless they get moved out and Goldstein becomes a pure Brighton/Caulfield/Sandringham seat at the bayside.
Daniel really shouldn’t have lost here, given the national environment this year. If she runs in 2028, she would have to reflect on this campaign and see where she went wrong.
Having said that, a 200 vote victory for Tim Wilson is absolutely not sustainable in the long term.
Worth noting too that while other states had swings to incumbent independents (save for the Greens losing Brisbane and Griffith), all four Victorian crossbenchers had swings against them, and it cost the Greens in Melbourne, and cost Zoe Daniel in Goldstein.
Goldstein is the Coalition’s most marginal seat (pending redistributions in other states this term).
It is too early to tell who will run and who will win in 2028. We don’t even know who the Liberal leader will be. We can look at the past though.
The teal independents, including Zoe Daniel, won in 2022 (in large part) on the back of a climate change or net zero platform. The issue could be a deal-breaker for some voters. If the Coalition had announced dropping net zero before the 2025 election, I reckon Zoe Daniel would still be the local member.
It was 175 votes to be exact
As Trent correctly pointed out to that Generational turnover will be greater than that. kos Samaras has pointed out that older tertiary educated millennials especially those who have married bought homes and started a family are moving from Greens to Labor that may have helped them in a place like Richmond in Victoria. In Goldstein if a new retirement village is built and people from from Casey to Goldstein it will help Tim Wilson. however it is probably the case that some over 80s who voted for Tim Wilson will move to the next life and there are more than 175 students in local schools who will have their 18th birthday before 2028
And yet no guarantee at all that said local school students will remain in the electorate upon graduating or indeed many of the other younger people who are inherently a more transient population and are retreating outwards in search of lower rents whilst empty nesters and owner-occupiers of paid off homes are much more likely to stay. Poor demographic analysis to simply assume that the trend of transient younger people moving towards city centres whilst older people slowly die off as had been the case until Covid would/will continue.
@nimalan by that argument what about the elderly people who died before the last election? what about the kids who turned 18 before the election? that didnt help Zoe Daniel save her majority did it? no. your forgetting about the jewish voters who are now turned off by labor and daniel after the decision to recognise palestine. there are factors at play that dont include people dying and people turning 18. if tim wilson can win the seat in a landlside for labor when peter dutton is the leader and donald trump is on the ballot and the liberals had a giant screw up of a campaign i think he can win when none of that is in play. your forgetting that there are also people who will be older and start voting more conservatively.
The problem with relying on demographics is many Teal voters are boomers.
@John I would say he’d definitely have a chance of losing if Net 0 is dropped, but if not then there’s no chance.
These are generally the demographics thr Liberals haven’t lost to ON since the election – tertiary educated, wealthy voters.
@Pencil Agreed, though there definitely would still be a political age gap in a seat like this.
@ John
If you actually bothered reading my comment at 7.15 AM AEDT. i actually said this “I do think John is correct and that Jewish voters feel angry and hurt and probably not coming back for some election cycles. The Israel-Palestine conflict is the most controversial issue on Earth and has already lasted longer than the Climate Wars.”That means that Teals/Labor and Greens need to accept that the Jewish vote has moved to Libs and they need to accept this as sunk cost so i did not forget the Jewish voters are turned off for Labor you misrepresented my statement. I also said Teals/Labor/Greens need to take Non Religious Anglo voters to compensate for this and if Net Zero is dropped like Scart said this hurts Labor even if Jewish voters remain with Libs or further swing to Labor. Zoe Daniel and Monique Ryan were among the worse performing Teals and should have looked to win more Non-Jewish voters to compensate for the loss of Jewish voters. Also i did not say Boomers dying off i mentioned Silent Generation and Greatest Generation they were the Generations before Boomers and some are still with us. Scart is correct there will be an age gap in voting patterns in a seat like this and if Net Zero is dropped then tertirary educated voters even those who have reached Middle Age will not be happy. The Reason that Zoe Daniel lost is in part due to Jewish Swing and that she did not gain enough voters elsewhere to compensate for this. Josh Burns lost Jewish voters but he increased his Overall vote by gaining Non Jewish voters in South Melbourne, Port Melbourne, Albert Park etc from both Greens and Libs.
@John it’s not just Jews that live in Goldstein…
*typo Jewish voters further swing to Libs i mean.
Yes, it’s not just Jewish people that live in Goldstein, but in the 5 seats that have a notable Jewish population:
Goldstein – Liberals picked up from an Independent.
Macnamara – Labor hold, but a swing to the Liberals.
Wentworth – Strong swing to Allegra Spender + seat becoming notionally Labor in the 2PP.
Bradfield – Independent picked up from the Liberals, becoming the closest seat in the country.
Kingsford Smith – Labor hold, swing to Labor.
So there’s definitely an element to how an MP can approach Jewish relations, and be returned to parliament. It’s certainly not just a single, uniform swing to the Liberals for example. St Ives swung to Nicolette Boele more than Caulfield swung away from Zoe Daniel.
@CJ Macnamara actually is more interesting than just a swing in 2PP. Labor actually had a huge increase in the primary vote (largely attributed to Josh Burns’ profile in the electorate) combined with a smaller swing to the Liberals. The reason why Labor had a 2PP decrease was because of a pretty clear decrease in the Greens primary vote. In fact had the Greens vote held steady Labor could’ve had an increase in the 2PP.
Agree that in places like Wentworth Allegra Spender benefited due to her stance against antisemitism (She was very vocal about it and very active in the community). Zoe Daniel was more ambiguous which didn’t help.
Regarding the earlier topic of generational change, it is worth noting that Gen Z aren’t as fond of and won’t be loyal to a major party like Boomers and the Silent Generation are. Kos Samaras mentioned that Gen Z are more willing to embrace minor parties and independents. Interestingly, even right-leaning Gen Z are also relatively progressive on the environment.
This is not to say Tim Wilson will lose. His margin is really slim. My point is that he might have to swim against the tide.
@tommo9 for example, if Mackellar had found its way west into St Ives under the Tink-Steggall proposal to save North Sydney, Sophie Scamps would’ve certainly lost. She was one of the first MP’s to suggest Israel was committing war crimes.
Wilson might benefit from a reelected Allan Government.
Rule Number 1 of Auspol: State and Federal politics are different.
Exhibit A: Tasmania.
Exhibit B: Queensland.
I would agree with Pencil that the political age gap (coining that term) would be smaller in Teal seats than in equivalent inner city seats held by Labor, such as Goldstein vs Macnamara or Chisholm or Bradfield vs Bennelong or Reid.
Liberals are set to dump net zero they can say good bye to this electorate.
I am endorsing Tim Wilson for the leadership of the Liberal Party and encourage a spill as soon as possible. #Timmy28 is on!
I am still undecided on who should take on the role of the Nationals leadership.
Im willing to endorse Tom Wilson for deputy leader. Andrew Hastie would be the only real contender ATM. Tim Wilson wouldn’t have the numbers. For the nats I think David Littleproud is the best choice.
Unironically Tim should be leader, because he’s moderate, yet can unite the right by
1. Consistenly rage-baiting and pissing off lefties and Whitlamite boomers on X
2. He defeated a teal.
Tim Wilson being gay married and agnostic would rile up the social conservatives. Would he be able to serve as a deputy to Hastie? How long does Barnaby Joyce stay a Nat…
Tim Wilson as leader carries a risk. He holds a very marginal seat. A teal (could be Zoe Daniel) and Labor could throw everything but the kitchen sink to force him to sandbag instead of campaign in potentially winnable seats.
@spacefish yeah he’s gone. One of the first seats to go on the night in 2028, I think.
The swing against the Liberals in the Teal seats could get very ugly.
There needs to be some sort of compromise between the factions, but that has to include net zero in some way. He needs to convince his colleagues that he can win the election. Andrew Hastie is too right-wing to be Liberal leader. Also, it would be a big bonus to have the first ever gay man to lead a major party come from the Liberals. We’ve already seen the first female Liberal leader.
As for whether he’d hold this, I think should he bring the Liberals back to the centre as leader he would very likely hold on. If he’s not leader he’ll spend a lot of time and money campaigning to save his seat which will mean he can probably hold on. If Zoe Daniel doesn’t contest then Tim will win.
*Correction: he needs to convince his colleagues that he can win AN election, not necessarily in 2028
Dominic Perrottet was personally more socially conservative (though really he wasn’t that conservative at all) than his colleagues but he compromised and the moderates (aka most NSW Liberals) supported him all the way. So compromise is possible.
No one cares who’s gay anymore. People couldn’t care less. If a predominantly Muslim seat (bruce) can elect a gay man why wouldn’t the libs not want a gay man as deputy. Most people just want someone competent. This isn’t the 1960s.
Agreed with John, Bruce voted No to gay marriage in 2017 and yet has elected a gay man 4 consecutive times and is now among the safest Labor seats in Victoria.
Tim proposed to his male partner on the floor of parliament when gay marriage was legalised 8 years ago, and I don’t even think Sky After Dark was critical of that.
Plus, I’ve seen a shit ton of hypocritical cunts (usually Whitlamite boomers with 💧 in their bios) on X and other sites bring up the prayer room whenever Wilson is mentioned. They do this purely because he is gay. If the same awful things were said about Penny Wong or Julian Hill or any gay/lesbian Labor MP, these dickheads would be first to criticise it.
“Tim Wilson as leader carries a risk. He holds a very marginal seat.”
@Votante
This is spot on. It was stated on the Dickson thread many times that Peter Dutton becoming opposition leader and with the increase profile that comes with the position would be enough to hold his marginal seat of Dickson. This argument turned out to be wrong and Dutton lost his seat.
@Darth Vader that phrasing doesn’t help your case.
@NP aside from the N*zi uniform scandal, Perrottet didn’t really display any social inoffensivity. Much of his premiership was focused on infrastructure.
By your argument penny Wong was homophobic for denying it for so many years correct?
Going back to the leadership question, I wonder if Tim Wilson would survive as a leader. He’s on the defensive as he holds a very marginal seat. It puts him in a vulnerable position like Peter Dutton was.
There’s a question over whether he can work with the Nationals and more right-wing Liberals. He is also more in favour of net zero and he probably would push it with the hope of saving his seat or winning back metropolitan seats. This would agitate many in the Coalition.
He is also an ex-IPA guy. I assume he is a free-market liberal. Free-market liberalism might concern some Nationals and rural Liberals. It is because of competition from minor right-wing parties, like One Nation, that are more economically nationalist and populist.
the numbers in the liberal party are pretty ttight and at least 3 people who voted for Ley are no longer in parliament. i wouldnt think Wilson would have the numbers to beat Susan Ley given they are both of the faction. i cant see the right/conservatives backing him over Ley.
peter duttons downfall was tied to that of the liberal party he had baggae and was the leader at the time when trump wasnt doing him any favours and their campaign tanked. Wilson would be better placed for the depuy leade role
The next leader will likely come from the National Right faction. It is uncommon for someone to challenge a leader from the same faction.
Exactly because not only are you splitting your own faction your gambling the opposing faction will want you more then them. I think Hastie is the one to watch. I think Ley has bought herself time with this vote.
Sussan Ley is from the same faction as Scott Morrison. She is not a true “moderate”, it’s just that the faction she’s in is quite small now and mostly occupied by Alex Hawke.
Ley was part of the centre-right faction. She switched to the moderates.