Sunday night counting update

7

There are four seats I am now tracking where I don’t think it’s entirely bedded down: McEwen, Fairfax, Indi and Parramatta.

UPDATE: Now covered all four key seats.

McEwen

Labor MP Rob Mitchell currently leads by 97 votes, over the Liberal Party’s Donna Petrovich.

Vote typeALP %LIB %To be countedProjected diff.
Absent55.6444.362,264ALP +256
Provisional1,706
Pre-Poll4,845LIB +115
Postal47.7452.26442LIB +20

There are almost 4900 pre-poll votes that have yet to be counted. This is by far the largest chunk of votes to be counted. No pre-poll votes have been counted yet, so we can’t calculate a projection. However I have made an estimate that they will help the Liberal Party slightly, as the Liberal Party did 1.32% better in 2010 on pre-poll votes in McEwen than they did on ordinary votes. If you add those to the ordinary vote total, you give the Liberal Party 51.2% of the pre-poll vote, or an advantage of 115 votes.

There are still quite a lot of absentee votes, that go to Labor, with very few postals to help the Liberal Party.

While there are up to 1700 provisional votes, only 250 were counted last time. They favoured Labor, but I’m guessing the swing to the Liberals mean the provisional votes work out roughly evenly.

On my estimate, I expect the Labor vote lead to grow by 121 votes, to a total of 218 votes.

Parramatta

Labor MP Julie Owens currently leads by 482 votes, over the Liberal Party’s Martin Zaiter.

Vote typeALP %LIB %To be countedProjected diff.
Absent50.9449.063,911ALP +73
Provisional1,378
Pre-Poll51.3248.681,458ALP +38
Postal45.6954.31250LIB +22

Almost all postals have been counted, withrelatively few prepoll votes to be counted. Almost 4000 absentee votes are to be counted, and these favour the ALP slightly.

The absent votes are decisive, and they are breaking slightly for Labor. At the moment this means the ALP should increase their margin. To win the seat, the Liberal would need to win 56.5% of the remaining absentee votes, compared to a current rate of 49.1%

On my estimate, I expect the Labor vote lead to grow by 89 votes, to a total of 571 votes.

Indi

Independent candidate Cathy McGowan currently leads by 515 votes, over Liberal MP Sophie Mirabella.

Vote typeIND %LIB %To be countedProjected diff.
Absent54.5245.481,127IND +101
Provisional377
Pre-Poll41.9158.091,991LIB +323
Postal42.9257.0854LIB +8

The postal votes helped Mirabella, but they are done. The 2000 remaining prepolls, if they break at 58% like the first 2000, will give an additional 300 to Mirabella, but that won’t be enough.

On my estimate, I expect the Liberal vote deficit to reduce by 230 votes, but McGowan to win by 285 votes.

Fairfax

Clive Palmer of the Palmer United Party currently leads by 502 votes, ahead of Liberal National candidate Ted O’Brien.

Vote typePUP %LNP %To be countedProjected diff.
Absent57.5942.412,266PUP +344
Provisional730
Pre-Poll43.2856.722,268LNP +304
Postal37.6762.332,227LNP +549

Clive Palmer is performing extremely badly on postal votes. Over 2000 more postal votes are expected, and if they break as badly as those postal votes already counted, the LNP will gain enough votes to take the lead.

Palmer should gain some votes from the 2266 absentee votes, but he is also losing in pre-poll votes, which should cancel that out.

Overall, these figures ad up to a net gain of 509 votes for the LNP, which turns Fairfax into almost a dead heat.

On my estimate, the LNP would win by seven votes, which would likely result in stretched out legal fights over who wins the seat. It’s also possible that late counting could result in either side winning by over 100 votes.

Liked it? Take a second to support the Tally Room on Patreon!

7 COMMENTS

  1. If Labor holds McEwen there will have been no surprise opposition wins like Lindsay in 1996 or Dawson in 2007

  2. The fact that Tassie was swinging hard was described fairly often before the election – there were even some wild tales about the Liberals clean-sweeping there.

Comments are closed.