As is tradition on this blog, I’ve put together my prediction of the results. I never put much stock in these – it’s always very difficult to judge what will happen in individual seats. However I do consult the polls, the pendulum and try and factor in individual seats’ conditions. Often I’ll read through the comments feed on key seats to see which Labor seats have had hard-fought campaigns, which doesn’t always match with what the pendulum predicts.
You might be interested in reading my prediction for the 2009 Queensland election. It appears in two parts.
For the record, last time I predicted a hung parliament (so trendy!), with 42 Labor, 42 LNP, 5 Independents and no One Nation or Greens. I overestimated the LNP total by 8, the independents by one, and underestimated Labor by nine. It wasn’t a great prediction.
The time I’m predicting a massive defeat for Labor. The overall figures are:
Liberal National 68 (+34), Labor 15 (-36), Katter’s Australian Party 3 (+3) and Independents 3 (-1)
I’m predicting that the two sitting KAP MPs, Shane Knuth and Aidan McLindon, will hold on to their seats of Dalrymple and Beaudesert, effectively making them losses for the LNP, who won them in 2009. I also predict that Katter’s Party will win Mount Isa, where Robbie Katter is running. I predict that three of the four independents will hold their seats, but that Dolly Pratt’s seat of Nanango will return to the LNP, although I think this will be the next best seat for the KAP.
I then predict that the Liberal Nationals will gain a further 35 seats from the ALP, on top of the ALP’s loss of Mount Isa to Robbie Katter.
I predict that, after a close race, Campbell Newman will win the seat of Ashgrove and become Premier. Kate Jones has been a strong opponent, but I haven’t seen a single poll that has had her in the lead, even if they have been very close. I just can’t see her holding on against the tide.
It will be easier to list all the fourteen seats I expect Labor to hold on to, and these are Algester, Bundamba, Capalaba, Inala, Logan, Lytton, Mackay, Nudgee, Rockhampton, Sandgate, South Brisbane, Stretton, Sunnybank, Waterford and Woodridge.
I predict that the safest Labor seat to fall will be Ipswich (16.7%), which is their only seat with more than a 10% margin where they will lose.
In terms of geography, I’m expecting Labor to be wiped out in a number of regions. I expect the LNP to gain all four Labor seats on the Gold Coast and the last remaining Labor seat on the Sunshine Coast, as well as Toowoomba North and two of Labor’s three seats in Ipswich. I expect Labor to be wiped out in the Cairns and Townsville areas, and lose additional seats in Central Queensland, only holding on to the urban seats of Mackay and Rockhampton.
With the exception of those two central Queensland towns, I expect Labor’s survivors to be restricted to the greater Brisbane area, with most concentrated at the southern end of the metropolitan area.
Labor will hold on to four seats along Moreton Bay, and a block of eight contiguous seats in southern Brisbane, Ipswich and Logan. I expect Anna Bligh to be the only MP in the centre of Brisbane to hold on, while seats like Mount Coot-tha and Brisbane Central.
As for the Greens, I don’t think they will win any seats. However I think with the Labor vote collapsing the Greens should come second in Indooroopilly, Mount Coot-tha and possibly even Brisbane Central. I don’t believe the QLD Greens have ever come in the top two in a seat at a general election, and this will be a step forward.
Now here are some maps illustrating the prediction. Labor seats are red, existing LNP seats are blue, LNP seats gained off Labor and independents are light blue, Independent seats are yellow, and KAP seats are purple.
Election prediction for Queensland state election.
Election prediction for Queensland state election, zoomed in on South-East Queensland.
Good analysis/predictions Mr. Raue, although just out of interest, what makes you think the LNP will gain Ipswich? I think Capalaba or Algester is more likely to fall to the LNP than Ipswich myself.
While I’m here, I’ll post my updated predictions:
LNP to hold all their existing seats sans Dalrymple, which Shane Knuth will hold for Katter’s Australian Party. They should win back Beaudesert from Aidan McLindon though.
Katter’s Australian Party to gain Mount Isa from Labor.
Nanango to return to the LNP, with Katter’s Australian Party finishing second.
Rob Messenger to be defeated in Burnett by the LNP. All other independents should hold their seats.
Labor to hold Woodridge, Inala, Bundamba, Rockhampton, Ipswich, Mackay, Waterford, South Brisbane, Nudgee, Logan, Sandgate and Lytton.
All other Labor seats to be gained by the LNP.
The Greens to finish second in Moggill, Indooroopilly and possibly Mount Coot-tha.
Katter’s Australian Party to finish second in a number of ultra-safe rural LNP seats, such as Gympie, Warrego, Hinchinbrook and Gregory.
Figures:
LNP: 72 (+38)
ALP: 12 (-39)
KAP: 2 (+2)
Independents: 3 (-1)
Anton’s list is basically the bare minimum that will be won by Labor. There’s about another 10 seats (Algester, Stretton, Murrumba, Morayfield, Keppel, Bulimba, Yeerongpilly, Mulgrave, Thuringowa) which Labor could win if a few things went their way. Winning most or all of these will obviously be the difference between an annihilation and a “Geez it’s bad but it could have been worse” outcome. I’d say they should win 15-20 but up to low 20′s is possible.
I reckon Messenger will win Burnett; a decade as the local MP and very high profile on the Bundaberg Hospital issue give him enough brownie points to hang on.
Agree KAP should win Mt Isa and Dalrymple but not Beaudesert. Will probably push hard in Hinchinbrook and Nanago without quite getting there, plus poll well in other LNP seats without affecting the outcome.
The Greens should finish second in Indooroopilly at least.
After NSW we can say that apparently unlikely swings do occur. Might Qld Labor do better out of Green prefs than in NSW particularly in Brisbane? But it looks like along road back for Labor in a traditionally conservative state where the LNP is now electable.
I forgot about Burnett, I am going to go back and edit my prediction to give that see to Messenger.
As far as I know the Greens are only preferencing Labor in Ashgrove, compared to 5 seats (including the key marginal of Toongabbie) at the NSW election.
As far as Ipswich goes, I’ve based it on the persistent rumours that the sitting member is in trouble, and my experience in NSW that indicated that seats like Ipswich did indeed fall.
Ben, I certainly don’t expect you to know the dynamics and demographics of all seats. The ALP will not retain Stretton and in fact the biggest swing against the ALP (25% – 30%) will occur in this seat.
Ipswich and Bundamba will be ones to watch on polling night. The ALP is struggling with the lack of Union help out here and both ALP members seem to be on the nose. The LNP has been very high profile with now 12 Flyers vs 3 ALP in my letterbox, an LNP volunteer twice knocking on my door talking about issues, signs on houses everywhere and where there is an ALP sign there is also an LNP, people on the side of the road everywhere and what seems to be an armada of mobile billboards.
I got told by a mate in the ALP who was begging me to help out (lmao) that they have been completely outplayed by the LNP and that the candidate in Bundamba is running one of the best campaigns in Qld. They apparently thought the Bundamba team were all novices and only too late realised (thought some fail to believe) that one of the LNP’s gun campaigners has been active in the area for a while pulling all the strings of the campaign and doing it well.
I agree with MDMConnell about Anton’s list. Sportsbet still has Labor ahead in 14 seats including Sunnybank and Ipswich West. Labor are either lineball or narrowly behind in the seats of Algester, Capalaba, Morayfield, Thuringowa and Yeerongpilly.
Labor to be returned with between 16-19 members unless the Newspoll at the end of this week shows some narrowing of the 58/42 2PP vote.
Finally I live in the Yeerongpilly electorate and it will certainly be a seat to watch on Saturday.
If the LNP wins 67 seats they will hold over 75% of the seats in the QLD parliament, which on a percentage of seats basis will beat the Coalition’s performance at the 2011 NSW election.
Personally I think Labor will win about 17-21 seats. Remember that NSW Labor was expected to end up with 13 seats based on polling, but they were able to still win 20 seats (out of 93) on a Primary vote of 25% (with a higher green vote that didn’t come back under OPV). QLD Labor is currently polling at least 5 points better than that so I’d be surprised if they did worse than NSW Labor on a seat count percentage basis.
I also don’t think Katter or Independents will do as much as people think they will at this election. They’ll do okay in some rural seats but they’re likely to get “crunched” by the overwhelming desire of people to kick the government out of office by voting LNP.
I also think Newman will win Ashgrove by about a 52-48 margin on the 2PP. Although I want Kate Jones to get up – she’s been brilliant. Go Kate!
NSW Labor getting 20 seats was a good performance on their overall vote, but it was because their vote is concentrated in ethnic Sydney, its the other side of the tiny votes they received in many safe Coalition seats, Qld Labor doesn’t have an ethnic heartland or much of an inner city left belt either nor even the provincial cities that got them to 11 seats in 1974. Qld labor will suffer through having a more evenly distributed vote.
I’ll tip a few random outcomes… half will probably be embarrassingly wrong, but here goes.
Biggest swings of the election: Aspley, Cleveland, Gaven, Redlands and Mudgeeraba. Held by Labor before the 2009 election, very marginal for the LNP after that one, very not after this one. Compare with Vic 2006: the Libs won five marginal seats from Labor in Melbourne’s outer eastern suburbs. They won government in 2010, and now hold all those seats with margins above 10% after big fat swings. Same thing oughta happen here.
The independents already there should stay put. Peter Wellington and Chris Foley will cop a swing to the LNP (like Richard Torbay in NSW, that’s their main rival, and they’ve got enough of a margin to hold on). Liz Cunningham will win Gladstone with the LNP coming third. Rob Messenger oughta beat the LNP, due to Dr Patel-related history while he was in the party; if he does that then he’s there forever. This election is his big test.
(Maryborough, Gladstone and Bundaberg were all held by Labor in the 90′s… ponder that. I wonder how seriously they take the possibility of ever winning them again.)
As for a random independent (I always tip one, they usually lose): Ron Clarke in Broadwater. Hey, maybe.
KAP to win: Dalrymple, Mt Isa, Nanango, and one other (flip a coin between Hinchinbrook, Mulgrave, Burdekin). Expect a hilarious leadership battle shortly afterwards between Knuth and Katter Jr Jr. They might give the LNP a scare in outback and FNQ seats, and in Beaudesert.
Ashgrove: Campbell Newman, I think. Also the highest rate of votes ruled informal due to swearing scrawled on the ballot paper (I’d hate to live there this week).
As for Labor seats, Queensland’s a long way from my house but so’s NSW, and I haven’t heard the kind of hate for the Qld govt (aside the obvious party trolls) that I did for ages before the NSW election (their incompetence stank across the nation). Therefore I reckon seats like Thuringowa, Brisbane Central and most of the ones MDMConnell mentioned will stay Labor. If they win a quarter of the seats in parliament that’d be a whacking, but still about 22 seats. After the 2001 landslide, there were 23 non-Labor MP’s (Libs, Nats, One Nation and conservative independents… sounds like a decent benchmark to me.
Gladstone consistently votes Labor at federal level even in bad years, Labor will win it back on Cunningham’s retirement. Maryborough & Bundaberg Labor’s vote seems to be remnant of the past.
Final predictions for Labor based on sporting analogies but this will be dependant on Newspoll tomorrow.
If Newspoll mirrors the last Galaxy poll Labor will be reduced to a rugby team of 15. However if that poll still shows a 58/42 2pp vote to LNP, Labor will be reduced to an Aussie Rules team of 18.
For electoral history readers it is 38 years since Labor was reduced to a cricket team of 11.
Ben,
Don’t underestimate the effect that Katter’s mob might have on the final ‘Two Party Preferred’ result on Saturday because of the dynamics and mathematics of the ‘optional preferential’ voting system in Queensland. (As we know, or should know, the ‘optional preferential’ system is not the same as the Federal voting system because it is not necessary to allocate preferences to all candidates on the ballot paper.) If preferences are not given then a vote ‘exhausts’ before any candidate gains benefit from it. This means that if Katter voters do not allocate a preference to the LNP then their votes will not be counted in the final tally, the LNP won’t get the flow-on of preferences from the anti-Labor vote and Labor will benefit from the Katter vote by default.
Simple Example: Assume that for a particular seat of 50,000 electors the pre-election polls indicate LNP 54%, ALP 36%, Greens 10%
But a Katter candidate stands on a ‘pox on both their houses’ ticket and gets 10% of the LNP vote without allocating preferences. Without the Katter candidate the result would be LNP with 27,000 votes to ALP 23000 votes (after Green preferences). But with the Katter candidate in the mix the result would be an ALP win with 23,000 votes (after Green preferences) to LNP 22,000 votes as the 5,000 independent votes would be exhausted.
I tip Labor to be left with only 10 seats after this election: Sandgate, Nudgee, South Brisbane, Waterford, Ipswich, Mackay, Rockhampton, Bundamba, Inala, and Woodridge. All lost Labor seats bar perhaps Mount Isa will be LNP gains.
I’d written off every Labor seat on a margin of 10% or less, but now I’m writing off Sunnybank and Lytton and Logan as well, because the sitting members are retiring and I can’t see Labor holding them without them.
I’m only leaning to Mount Isa being a gain for KAP, if only because of the Katter family name there. I’m also leaning to the other KAP seats being LNP gains, though Nanango might be a KAP gain upon the Independent member’s retirement after Newman savaged the Bjelke-Petersen name. I also tip the LNP to win Independent-held Burnett. The LNP would’ve followed the lead of non-Labor counterparts elsewhere in using the Oakeshott-Windsor-Gillard thing to scare people away from Independents.
It’s going to be a massacre.
Thank God you have been proven wrong. The ALP and Greens don’t have a mandate to do any more damage in QLD!
Who’s been proved wrong? I predicted a devastating defeat for Labor, even if it wasn’t quite as devastating as the actual result.
Je-sus!
I expected a thumping but not this much of a thumping..
Labor lucky to reach double figures.
I wouldn’t have thought 68 seats would be an underestimation Ben but there you go.
My worst clanger was Ron Clarke, who only got about 4.5% of the vote. Also seem to have been wrong about Foley (what happened to him?) and Messenger. Right about Aidan McLindon though, he got thumped. I seem to have done what everyone did and overestimated Labor and KAP’s vote… I figured a quarter of the seats was enough of a thumping. A tenth of the seats is nasty.
I was pretty right about the largest swings in 2009′s batch of new LNP seats, though – they were in the 20% range. And I was kinda right about an old Labor inner suburban seat staying with the party, I just got the seat wrong – Bulimba, not Brisbane Central.
Here’s the full list of Labor seats according to the ABC: Bulimba, Bundamba, Inala, Mackay, Mulgrave, South Brisbane, Woodridge. Yep, SEVEN. Four women from Brisbane, three men from regional Qld – that’s gonna be a funny looking party room. Anna Bligh would have to think carefully about causing a by-election, although the Greens haven’t done well enough to make a Fremantle repeat likely.
Here’s another silly prediction: Bill Byrne (Rockhampton) for opposition leader within the next year or two. He’s Labor’s one new MP, so he’s gonna be around for longer than the others – he might become the nightwatchman.
Seats where I was wrong:
Mulgrave (thought the LNP would overcome the vote-splitting)
Bulimba (Labor did lose this in 1929 if I’m not mistaken)
Lytton (never gone LNP before, not even in ’74)
Logan (did Logan’s predecessor go National in ’74?)
Sandgate (how different were the boundaries when the Liberals last won this? Does anyone know?)
Nudgee (Thought Labor would hold at least some of Swan’s federal territory, but alas, I was proven wrong)
Waterford (Never thought I’d see only one seat in Logan City stay red, that seat being Woodridge)
Ipswich (Mr. Raue, you were on the money here!)
Maryborough (thought Foley would hold on despite a swing against him)
Still got 80/89 right though, which is pretty good.
Are we allowed to mention Patricia Petersen again yet? She and her friend in Bundamba got about 9% each. Got their deposit back, but not much more.
Not sure how I missed out Rockhampton in that list, so I’m gonna blame rum. Eight seats, then. Five Brisbane women will be a majority in Qld Labor. Looks like Emily’s List had the desired effect.