As is tradition on this blog, I’ve put together my prediction of the results. I never put much stock in these – it’s always very difficult to judge what will happen in individual seats. However I do consult the polls, the pendulum and try and factor in individual seats’ conditions. Often I’ll read through the comments feed on key seats to see which Labor seats have had hard-fought campaigns, which doesn’t always match with what the pendulum predicts.
For the record, last time I predicted a hung parliament (so trendy!), with 42 Labor, 42 LNP, 5 Independents and no One Nation or Greens. I overestimated the LNP total by 8, the independents by one, and underestimated Labor by nine. It wasn’t a great prediction.
The time I’m predicting a massive defeat for Labor. The overall figures are:
Liberal National 68 (+34), Labor 15 (-36), Katter’s Australian Party 3 (+3) and Independents 3 (-1)
I’m predicting that the two sitting KAP MPs, Shane Knuth and Aidan McLindon, will hold on to their seats of Dalrymple and Beaudesert, effectively making them losses for the LNP, who won them in 2009. I also predict that Katter’s Party will win Mount Isa, where Robbie Katter is running. I predict that three of the four independents will hold their seats, but that Dolly Pratt’s seat of Nanango will return to the LNP, although I think this will be the next best seat for the KAP.
I then predict that the Liberal Nationals will gain a further 35 seats from the ALP, on top of the ALP’s loss of Mount Isa to Robbie Katter.
I predict that, after a close race, Campbell Newman will win the seat of Ashgrove and become Premier. Kate Jones has been a strong opponent, but I haven’t seen a single poll that has had her in the lead, even if they have been very close. I just can’t see her holding on against the tide.
It will be easier to list all the fourteen seats I expect Labor to hold on to, and these are Algester, Bundamba, Capalaba, Inala, Logan, Lytton, Mackay, Nudgee, Rockhampton, Sandgate, South Brisbane, Stretton, Sunnybank, Waterford and Woodridge.
I predict that the safest Labor seat to fall will be Ipswich (16.7%), which is their only seat with more than a 10% margin where they will lose.
In terms of geography, I’m expecting Labor to be wiped out in a number of regions. I expect the LNP to gain all four Labor seats on the Gold Coast and the last remaining Labor seat on the Sunshine Coast, as well as Toowoomba North and two of Labor’s three seats in Ipswich. I expect Labor to be wiped out in the Cairns and Townsville areas, and lose additional seats in Central Queensland, only holding on to the urban seats of Mackay and Rockhampton.
With the exception of those two central Queensland towns, I expect Labor’s survivors to be restricted to the greater Brisbane area, with most concentrated at the southern end of the metropolitan area.
Labor will hold on to four seats along Moreton Bay, and a block of eight contiguous seats in southern Brisbane, Ipswich and Logan. I expect Anna Bligh to be the only MP in the centre of Brisbane to hold on, while seats like Mount Coot-tha and Brisbane Central.
As for the Greens, I don’t think they will win any seats. However I think with the Labor vote collapsing the Greens should come second in Indooroopilly, Mount Coot-tha and possibly even Brisbane Central. I don’t believe the QLD Greens have ever come in the top two in a seat at a general election, and this will be a step forward.
Now here are some maps illustrating the prediction. Labor seats are red, existing LNP seats are blue, LNP seats gained off Labor and independents are light blue, Independent seats are yellow, and KAP seats are purple.