We’ve got a bunch of global elections taking place over the next two months. I have posted an electoral calendar in the sidebar. These include elections in South Africa, India and Iceland, a parliamentary election in Indonesia, a referendum on Daylight Saving in Western Australia, and a state by-election for the seat of Fremantle in Western Australia. In order to cover the stories in all of these campaigns, I’m gonna start a regular post covering them all. I may go more indepth on each election.
- Indonesia goes to the polls this Thursday to elect its national Parliament. Sitting president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s Democrat Party is leading in the polls on 27%, up from 7% at the 2004 election, which will make it easier for Yudhoyono to run on his own for President. Jakarta is three hours behind AEST, meaning that, if this story is correct, we should see most of the results come in on Thursday night. I’ll try and cover it on the night. The best story I have found to wrap up the state of the parties is this one in the Wall Street Journal.
- Google has launched a fantastic website for the upcoming Indian election, including a brilliant Google Map (although I can’t find a way to download it into Google Earth). Have a play.
- Fairfax’s WA Today has a great article from last week laying out the issues we have played out on the blog this week regarding the possible Liberal candidacy in the Fremantle by-election, as well as raising the issues Peter Tagliaferri may have in getting Labor preselection for the seat.
- In South Africa, ANC party president and presidential candidate Jacob Zuma has dodged the latest criminal charges, with the National Prosecution Authority dropping charges against the embattled frontrunner just two weeks out from the election.
- Less than three weeks out from Iceland’s parliamentary election, it’s worth looking at the polls. While one poll in January put the Left/Green Movement in first place, most polls since then have put the Social Democratic Alliance. Last week’s poll saw the SDA on 29.4%, Left Green on 27.2%, the right-wing Independence Party on 25.4% and the centrist Progressive Party on 10.7%.
Definitely some interesting elections coming up. It will be interesting to see how the new party ‘COPE’ will go in South Africa. Although I expect Zuma will become the president I am thinking that COPE (a splinter from the ANC) will have some effect on the election.
WA will also be interesting. I think the race in Fremantle is shaping up to be quite good and I think it will prove both a real test for the Greens and the ALP.
Also, for anyone interested, I found an article on the Senate Races in the US in 2010 (obviously not upcoming, but still interesting). Have a look! http://www.facebook.com/ext/share.php?sid=67886306023&h=JyRhI&u=ogqBU&ref=mf
That Fairfax article describes Tagliaferri as “a factional opponent of Mr McGinty” and “not a Labor Party member”. Que?
Re the post above, Nate’s April rundown must be just about due. (Watch Connecticut climb up the chart.)
Things globally electoral – noticed the British Colombia polls for the provincial election on May 12?
http://www.nodice.ca/elections/britishcolumbia/
Seems the Greens are running between 11-18% (depending on the pollster) – don’t know if this means seats or a spoiler for the NDP.
Yeah, I forgot about BC. I’ll try and get something up about them soon.
Personally I find the referendum on STV interesting. And, as Mackerras pointed out, May 12 2009 is the hundredth anniversary of the first proportionally-elected Parliament in Australia sitting for the first time (the Tasmanian House of Assembly).
What I find odd about the British Colombia proposal is that this comes from a country with no history of STV/IRV.
I think preferences are the best method of election for single member constituencies, but I do have my reservations when it comes to multi-member constituencies.
I wonder why they didn’t choose a more orthodox PR system like D’Hondt or Sainte Lague.
Well, actually, STV is the orthodox PR system for the english-speaking world. While MMP has been used in New Zealand, Scotland and Wales in the last few years, STV is used in Ireland (both north and south), Malta and local government elections in New Zealand and Scotland, not to mention all the uses in Australia.
An STV system also allows more room for individualistic politics, outside of strict party controls, which more reflects the way that party politics works in the Anglosphere.
OK, so STV is more widespread than I thought. Still, it leaves me wondering why these places generally only utilise preferences when using PR, when it is arguably less necessary.
As for your last point, I think any form of open list PR can allow for “individualist politics”. That’s separate from STV vs DH/SL. Our Senate system is quasi closed list because of above-the-line voting.