Podcast #150: Bradfield was a draw, for a moment there

For this podcast Ben interviews two scrutineers about their experience in the recounts: Adelaide, a Liberal scrutineer from Bradfield, and KJ, an independent scrutineer from Goldstein. Ben also discusses the recount procedures he saw in Bradfield last week and the latest count updates from...

Are seats getting closer? Maybe not

We are still waiting for the final 2PP figures - they've finished in 149 seats and have even started the 2PP count in Bradfield now - but we now have basically all of the two-candidate-preferred figures in. We may not know the final Bradfield...

Senate preferences playing a bigger role

Yesterday's final result in New South Wales was a bit of a surprise, with One Nation closing a primary vote margin of 0.21 quotas. Even after One Nation won another senator in Western Australia on Thursday afternoon, the gain they had made in WA...

Correcting some of the 2CP swings

Prior to the election, I drew attention to the differences between my calculations and those of the AEC for a number of non-classic seats that gained new areas during the redistribution. Originally I had a list of 14 affected seats, but one of them...

Turnout is up, and election day is down

We are now getting to the point in the election count where all of the primary votes appear to have been counted. We don't have all the preference data yet - Bradfield is obviously still in play, the two-party-preferred count is not quite complete,...

Observations from the Bradfield recount

I had the opportunity today to visit the Bradfield recount, thanks to being appointed as a scrutineer. I did not attempt to challenge any ballots, but this gave me the best way to see how the process works. I was thinking of doing a...

Breaking down the informal vote

The vote count is now getting to a point where pretty much all primary votes have been counted, even if we don't have all of the preference counts yet. So that means we can now begin to analyse the informal voting trends - where...

Senate button pushes – live blog

Friday 2:47pm - The distribution of preferences has been published in New South Wales, and here is the last three rounds. In the third-last round, there were four candidates left competing for two seats when Legalise Cannabis was excluded: Faruqi (GRN) - 0.9456 quotas ...

Measuring the independents

One of the big stories of 2025 has been the rise of independents. There was a notable increase in the number of independents who stood at this election, but that in itself is not the most important factor. There is a tremendous range in...

Booth map of the day – Banks and Hughes

Today's booth map covers two neighbouring seats in southern Sydney, both of which flipped from Liberal to Labor in 2025. The seat of Banks covers south-western parts of the Canterbury-Bankstown coucnil area and a majority of the Georges River council area, on the northern side...