Western Metropolitan – Victoria 2026

Could the Greens win a seat here?

Previous voter support for various ‘freedom’, anti-lockdown and anti-Dan Andrews parties will retreat. The DLP is on the backslide without Bernie Finn nor Adem Somyurek. The DLP nearly got the last seat last election. If the combined minor party vote tilts to the left and to the Greens and Victorian Socialists, it’ll definitely help the Greens’ cause. A decline in the Labor vote would also boost the Greens’ chances.

@ Votante
I think we need to look at the Left:Right before we look a the Greens or DLP can win a seat. Last time we had a 3:2 Left/Right Split if we count Legalise Cannabis as a left-wing party. If i count DLP as a right wing party then 2014 also provided a 3:2 Left Right Split when DLP won a seat. In 2010 there was a 3:2 Left: Right Split but the Libs won 2 seats. I expect the “freedom parties” to have a lower vote and the Libs to have a modestly increased primary vote so i expect Libs to win 2 seats. The Western Metropolitan Region is more right-wing than Northern Metro Region. I think Greens could win a seat but it will come at the expense of Legalise Cannabis, i cant see Labor falling below 2 quotas here.

@Nimalan, you explained my hypothesis quite well. With the 3-2 split between left and right, a Greens win would be at the expense of Legalise Cannabis.

If I recall correctly, last election most parties, including Labor, put the Greens further down than Legalise Cannabis. This meant that preference flows helped Legalise Cannabis win a seat with a far lower primary vote. If the Greens can get swings in western Melbourne like they did at the federal election, it would help their cause.

Moira Deeming has been criticised for insulting Victoria police by descirbing them as Dan’s Private army she and Ann-Marie Hermans compared Danie Andrews to Stalin, Saddam Hussain etc. Bernie Finn who was previously the Liberal member for this electorate got expelled after compared Daniel Andrews to Hitler. Moira Deeming was the replacement for Bernie Finn.

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/aug/28/moira-deeming-criticised-describing-police-daniel-andrews-personal-army-amid-victoria-shooting-dezi-freeman-manhunt

@nimalan Victoria Police are the biggest gang in the state. the only difference is they have a badge that gives the ability to get away with shit. #nedkellywasright

@ John
It will be interesting know who the Police generally vote. There was a comment on tallyroom below that Police are increasingly a Liberal voting demographic see below. I am not sure about that as Police are paid by the Public Service and are unionised. I think ADF members are generally right-wing which explains increasing strength of Libs in Herbert etc. I think that is why seats like Herbert and Solomon generally like a Hawkish foreign policy.

https://www.tallyroom.com.au/archive/aus2022/lindsay2022/comment-page-2#comment-770750

Thanks for saying that John. A very insightful take, especially in a week like this. Good job for taking us one step closer to the precipice of getting the comments permanently closed.

Nimalan, historically Victorian police were more associated with the Liberals, this changed during the Kennett years.

@John Seriously get a grip mate. Deeming’s comments were offensive and unbecoming of an elected representative.

after the way Victoria police treated me and how ofter you see police treating people with mental health issues and the disabled i am entitled to me opinion.

Agree Darcy and Tommo, the police in Australia are in no way considered corrupt by any means. They just enforce the laws as they are written and enacted by the relevant parliamentary body (state or federal).

As for the criticism of Dan Andrews, perhaps it is valid that some of the covid era restrictions and lockdowns may have been excessive but overall, he was acting on sound judgement and in similar fashion to conservative leaders (Scott Morrison, Dom Perrottet and Steven Marshall).

except they use heavy handed tactics and overreact when dealing with people with mental health issues and disabilities. not to mention lie and cover up crimes. yes this happened to me.

@ Pencil
The post on the Lindsay thread from 2022 was in support of the realignment theory and suggested that Police as they are not university educated should be a target demographic for the Coalition my skepticism is due to the fact that they are certainly not self-employed like tradies and the unionised unlike the ADF.

@John well if they did that they probably have a decent reason to do so without needing to tell you.

Anyway this isn’t about the police. This is about the Western Metro area electing nutters like Deeming and Finn before her. It’s certainly a weird…place.

@tommo what possible reason could they have for telling me someone stole something from me when i know this was a flat out lie because the person who actually stole it told me they did. and they told me the person they accused of doing it was lying and then swore to this in an affadavit when they threw bogus charges at me because i wouldnt drop the theft complaint?

Calling Daniel Andrews a dictator is offensive to those who actually experienced actual dictatorships first hands. If Dan Andrew’s or any other Australian leaders are dictators, then why do we still have Elections, why Australia is ranked highly globally in the Democracy Index (even during lockdowns) and wouldn’t insulting Andrew’s lead to an arrest by then? Of course any sane person would know that Covid lockdowns don’t constitute dictatorships.

Agree Marh, the more extreme covid era restrictions (Lockdowns, border closures etc) were just a temporary measure enacted due to extraordinary circumstances. In these situations (like times of war or natural disaster), limitations on personal freedoms are a valid response to ensure community safety.

Agree Marh, the more extreme covid era restrictions (Lockdowns, border closures etc) were just a temporary measure enacted due to extraordinary circumstances. In these situations (like times of war or natural disaster), limitations on personal freedoms are a valid response to ensure community safety.

2 labor 2 liberal LGC. unless preferences swap to the greens over LGC (unlikely) or bernie finn makes another rearguard attempt with adifferent party. Status Quo

@marh you know that Russia, Venezuela, Cuba, North Korea, Belarus, (insert despot regime here) and to a lesser extend China have elections right?

Former Liberal MP for this seat, Bernie Finn has now joined One Nation. Previously he defected from Libs to DLP then to Family First and now finally ONP.

If Deeming loses pre-selection (and presumably goes party shopping as a result) this could be a pretty spicy mix. Can’t imagine Bernie is going to find it much easier to get along with ON admin than he did anywhere else

@maxim: Moira Deeming is unlikely to be dumped from the Liberal Party’s Western Metropolitan Region ticket altogether. She is much more likely to be demoted down the ticket, putting her at risk of defeat. Moira Deeming’s preselection for the top spot of the Liberal Party’s Western Metropolitan Region ticket will be challenged by Dinesh Gourisetty, who is a prominent figure in Melbourne’s fast-growing Indian community and who was placed second on the Liberal Party’s Western Metropolitan Region ticket in 2018. If she is demoted to the second spot, which is most likely, she may be defeated. If she is defeated to the third or lower spot she will definitely be defeated. The rise of One Nation, especially if Bernie Finn is the lead candidate, as well as the West Party contesting, will both drag down the Liberal vote and may cost the Liberal Party the second seat.

I wonder how would Bernie Finn perform? On the surface he might do very well in Sunbury (large Anglo population that largely consists with tradie and is where Finn lives) but then his ultra socially conservative views (especially his well-known anti-abortion activism) might be a deterrent to those who are not religious. His socially conservative views might had initially fared decent in CALD communities but given Finn is now joined One Nation as well as the Christian Right recent pivot against multiculturalism, this might have been ruled out maybe except with Eastern European Communities.

I reckon Moria Deeming will be on the Lib ticket but am unsure of which spot. The second spot is no longer guaranteed to be winnable.

Like Joseph mentioned, Bernie Finn running for One Nation as well as the West Party could split the non-Labor/Greens vote. I also sense Vic Socialists to be in the game especially in the eastern parts like Footscray. All these factors would make it harder for the Liberals to get their second seat.

Bernie Finn came close to winning in 2022 as a DLP candidate. This was also went there was a lot of anti-lockdown anger and there was a shift to third parties. The pandemic factor is gone now. One Nation is less palatable to the multicultural communities of the western suburbs, even if they’re socially conservative.

@ Marh
I think Sunbury and Niddrie are areas where ONP will perform. As you say Sunbury is a very Anglo tradie area and a bit like Camden, NSW. In Niddrie, i think the Italian community now better integrated will be ok to vote for ONP. I think Southern and Eastern Europeans are a key target for both Libs and ONP. Sydenham for example has large Maltese, Croatian and Macedonian communities who are socially conservative.
@ Votante
I think compared to 2022 there is more Nationalism and Anti-immigrant sentiment in the Broader Right Flank even the Freedom Party (previously antivax, lockdown) is now anti-immigrant/ Their leader Morgan C Jonas held a rally one week after Bondi and said that Albanese, Wong and Burke are guilty of treason due to the Bondi attacks. David Limbrick from the Libertarian party had also joined the rally.

I think the West Party are going to take more of Labor’s 2022 vote than Liberals this cycle

The West Party and One Nation could hit the Liberals as well as Labor.

@Nimalan, in 2022, many minor and micro parties like ONP, UAP, LDP, Angry Victorians and Freedom Party ran on a freedom or anti-lockdown platform. They could appeal to working class voters, younger voters and outer suburban voters whose lives were most impacted by lockdowns. This appeal was across CALD voters in the western suburbs as they either had young families, pursuing studies or in the workforce.

Since 2022, many of those parties have rebranded or pivoted to a more anti-immigration platform. This likely wouldn’t go down well in most of the western suburbs except maybe in Sydenham and Sunbury. I’m not too sure if there is traction from the anti-immigration platform since immigration is a federal issue.

A possibility is that left-leaning parties like Vic Socialists or the Greens or centrist parties like The West Party pick up more of the anti-major or anti-establishment vote.

@ Votante

I agree West Party is non ideological and Centrist so can pick up dissaffected voters from Labor who dont want to vote Liberal. I do think VS and Greens will surge in the poorer areas especially St Albans like they did at the Federal level. That is why me think St Albans will be one of the few seats to have TPP swing to Labor as right wing minors will plummnet and VS/Greens will surge even though i dont expect Labor PV to rise.