To provide the best experiences, we use technologies like cookies to store and/or access device information. Consenting to these technologies will allow us to process data such as browsing behavior or unique IDs on this site. Not consenting or withdrawing consent, may adversely affect certain features and functions.
The technical storage or access is strictly necessary for the legitimate purpose of enabling the use of a specific service explicitly requested by the subscriber or user, or for the sole purpose of carrying out the transmission of a communication over an electronic communications network.
The technical storage or access is necessary for the legitimate purpose of storing preferences that are not requested by the subscriber or user.
The technical storage or access that is used exclusively for statistical purposes.
The technical storage or access that is used exclusively for anonymous statistical purposes. Without a subpoena, voluntary compliance on the part of your Internet Service Provider, or additional records from a third party, information stored or retrieved for this purpose alone cannot usually be used to identify you.
The technical storage or access is required to create user profiles to send advertising, or to track the user on a website or across several websites for similar marketing purposes.
Unlock with Patreon
Could the Greens win a seat here?
Previous voter support for various ‘freedom’, anti-lockdown and anti-Dan Andrews parties will retreat. The DLP is on the backslide without Bernie Finn nor Adem Somyurek. The DLP nearly got the last seat last election. If the combined minor party vote tilts to the left and to the Greens and Victorian Socialists, it’ll definitely help the Greens’ cause. A decline in the Labor vote would also boost the Greens’ chances.
@ Votante
I think we need to look at the Left:Right before we look a the Greens or DLP can win a seat. Last time we had a 3:2 Left/Right Split if we count Legalise Cannabis as a left-wing party. If i count DLP as a right wing party then 2014 also provided a 3:2 Left Right Split when DLP won a seat. In 2010 there was a 3:2 Left: Right Split but the Libs won 2 seats. I expect the “freedom parties” to have a lower vote and the Libs to have a modestly increased primary vote so i expect Libs to win 2 seats. The Western Metropolitan Region is more right-wing than Northern Metro Region. I think Greens could win a seat but it will come at the expense of Legalise Cannabis, i cant see Labor falling below 2 quotas here.
@Nimalan, you explained my hypothesis quite well. With the 3-2 split between left and right, a Greens win would be at the expense of Legalise Cannabis.
If I recall correctly, last election most parties, including Labor, put the Greens further down than Legalise Cannabis. This meant that preference flows helped Legalise Cannabis win a seat with a far lower primary vote. If the Greens can get swings in western Melbourne like they did at the federal election, it would help their cause.
Moira Deeming has been criticised for insulting Victoria police by descirbing them as Dan’s Private army she and Ann-Marie Hermans compared Danie Andrews to Stalin, Saddam Hussain etc. Bernie Finn who was previously the Liberal member for this electorate got expelled after compared Daniel Andrews to Hitler. Moira Deeming was the replacement for Bernie Finn.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/aug/28/moira-deeming-criticised-describing-police-daniel-andrews-personal-army-amid-victoria-shooting-dezi-freeman-manhunt
@nimalan Victoria Police are the biggest gang in the state. the only difference is they have a badge that gives the ability to get away with shit. #nedkellywasright
@ John
It will be interesting know who the Police generally vote. There was a comment on tallyroom below that Police are increasingly a Liberal voting demographic see below. I am not sure about that as Police are paid by the Public Service and are unionised. I think ADF members are generally right-wing which explains increasing strength of Libs in Herbert etc. I think that is why seats like Herbert and Solomon generally like a Hawkish foreign policy.
https://www.tallyroom.com.au/archive/aus2022/lindsay2022/comment-page-2#comment-770750
Thanks for saying that John. A very insightful take, especially in a week like this. Good job for taking us one step closer to the precipice of getting the comments permanently closed.
Nimalan, historically Victorian police were more associated with the Liberals, this changed during the Kennett years.
@John Seriously get a grip mate. Deeming’s comments were offensive and unbecoming of an elected representative.
after the way Victoria police treated me and how ofter you see police treating people with mental health issues and the disabled i am entitled to me opinion.
Agree Darcy and Tommo, the police in Australia are in no way considered corrupt by any means. They just enforce the laws as they are written and enacted by the relevant parliamentary body (state or federal).
As for the criticism of Dan Andrews, perhaps it is valid that some of the covid era restrictions and lockdowns may have been excessive but overall, he was acting on sound judgement and in similar fashion to conservative leaders (Scott Morrison, Dom Perrottet and Steven Marshall).
except they use heavy handed tactics and overreact when dealing with people with mental health issues and disabilities. not to mention lie and cover up crimes. yes this happened to me.
@ Pencil
The post on the Lindsay thread from 2022 was in support of the realignment theory and suggested that Police as they are not university educated should be a target demographic for the Coalition my skepticism is due to the fact that they are certainly not self-employed like tradies and the unionised unlike the ADF.
@John well if they did that they probably have a decent reason to do so without needing to tell you.
Anyway this isn’t about the police. This is about the Western Metro area electing nutters like Deeming and Finn before her. It’s certainly a weird…place.
@tommo what possible reason could they have for telling me someone stole something from me when i know this was a flat out lie because the person who actually stole it told me they did. and they told me the person they accused of doing it was lying and then swore to this in an affadavit when they threw bogus charges at me because i wouldnt drop the theft complaint?
Calling Daniel Andrews a dictator is offensive to those who actually experienced actual dictatorships first hands. If Dan Andrew’s or any other Australian leaders are dictators, then why do we still have Elections, why Australia is ranked highly globally in the Democracy Index (even during lockdowns) and wouldn’t insulting Andrew’s lead to an arrest by then? Of course any sane person would know that Covid lockdowns don’t constitute dictatorships.
Agree Marh, the more extreme covid era restrictions (Lockdowns, border closures etc) were just a temporary measure enacted due to extraordinary circumstances. In these situations (like times of war or natural disaster), limitations on personal freedoms are a valid response to ensure community safety.
Agree Marh, the more extreme covid era restrictions (Lockdowns, border closures etc) were just a temporary measure enacted due to extraordinary circumstances. In these situations (like times of war or natural disaster), limitations on personal freedoms are a valid response to ensure community safety.