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Liberal hold.
I would not be surprised if Eildon is abolished in 2030. Under quota possibly worse by then. Mansfield and Murrundindi Shires would fit quite nicely into northern Victorian regional seats. Yarra Valley and Nilumbik could go into Eltham, Yan Yean and Evelyn.
Redistributed agreed,
They’ll probably put a new seat down the South East called Clyde and another out West called Rockbank both likely safe Labor seats.
Maybe not Clyde but I reckon Rockbank will be safe Labor.
@Redistributed: Note that Yan Yean is a fast-growing electorate containing greenfield areas such as Wollert, Donnybrook and Mernda. It is likely to be massively over quota by the time of the next redistribution, just as it was at the time of the last redistribution, so it’s hard to justify adding territory to it. Just as in the last redistribution, both Eltham and Eildon absorbed part of Yan Yean’s surplus. Therefore, Eildon will not be abolished in 2030. Rather, it will probably expand to take in more territory from Yan Yean.