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Labor hold, the swing against Labor can be attributed to the retirement of a high profile minster. I think that due to the tree changers moving out this way Labor should have no troubles holding on here.
This is a seat on paper that the Liberals have the capacity to win if the party is more centrist and led by a more moderate leader. It reminds me of South Coast in NSW in terms of demographic change/sea changers and the fact Labor has improved here a lot as a result. And in a local perspective, Eltham and Macedon. This seat is quite affluent with a large retiree population, and while there is definitely a feel of fiscal conservatism being common here, this seat is quite socially progressive on issues like climate change, the Voice, and LGBT.
For now, Labor retain, but I expect a swing against them here.
@ James,
You are correct this is a socially progressive area and one which is quite irreligious. Like you pointed out Eltham, Macedon are simmilar i would also add Monbulk as a socially progressive highlly irreligious seat. Those 4 seats along with Ivanhoe are better suited for a moderate leader like Pesutto.