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Labor hold, the swing against Labor can be attributed to the retirement of a high profile minster. I think that due to the tree changers moving out this way Labor should have no troubles holding on here.
This is a seat on paper that the Liberals have the capacity to win if the party is more centrist and led by a more moderate leader. It reminds me of South Coast in NSW in terms of demographic change/sea changers and the fact Labor has improved here a lot as a result. And in a local perspective, Eltham and Macedon. This seat is quite affluent with a large retiree population, and while there is definitely a feel of fiscal conservatism being common here, this seat is quite socially progressive on issues like climate change, the Voice, and LGBT.
For now, Labor retain, but I expect a swing against them here.
@ James,
You are correct this is a socially progressive area and one which is quite irreligious. Like you pointed out Eltham, Macedon are simmilar i would also add Monbulk as a socially progressive highlly irreligious seat. Those 4 seats along with Ivanhoe are better suited for a moderate leader like Pesutto.
As posters above have alluded to, Wilson as the leader and a possible realignment back towards affluent centrist voters could see this seat come into play, even though the current margin is likely reflecting the departure of a long serving popular MP.
The reverse covid effect of Labor’s policies being endorsed by more affluent and progressive regional communities was definitely a factor in some of the smaller towns like Queenscliff with high retiree populations and could be liable to larger swings. On the other hand there are increased amounts of holiday homes and short stay rentals etc which locals are increasingly resenting so Labor’s policy work in that space could prove beneficial too. For now its a Labor hold at about 5% but the dial could move significantly over the next year