Is this notional Labor now?
Missed read the redistribution, understand that it’s now notionally Labor now.
On these boundaries & if Russell Northe retires Labor should gain this seat. If Russell Northe runs again this seat he could hold on.
Nationals have preselected Martin Cameron, a former teammate of Russell Northe according to the Herald Sun. There appears to be a degree of uncertainty as to whether he will actually run again this time. If he doesn’t run Labor should have a big advantage, especially considering the redistribution to include strong Labor areas in Moe
If the LNP want to get back into office they will win here as the redistributions & demographic changes have not benefited them in metropolitan Melbourne so they will need to win here.
This maybe the final chance for Labor to regain this seat. For the first time all of the Labor voting best areas in the La Trobe valley are in one seat. However, demographic change has not been favourable for Labor with decline of Coal industry. The remaining Coal Fired power stations in Loy Yang and Yallourn are scheduled for closure in coming years and here the Coal mining is not export oriented.
I personally don’t see Labor picking up here as they are perceived as anti coal government plus the lockdowns through this area won’t play into Labor’s favour, however Labor did improve through this area federally I believe but that doesn’t really mean a lot. There was once a time I would of said that on these boundaries Labor would have had this in the bag but the margin is easy to overcome & these type of coal miner votes seem to be going to the ON with the presences finding their way to the LNP.
Also worth noting that Russell Northe will be retiring so it will be interesting watch here
This seat with now all i think of the Latrobe Valley in one seat… minus a sitting mp is borderline.as the margin suggests… I suspect
Labor can win here
Every election since 2002 has had a very large independent vote – Brad Platschinda on timber issues in 2002, Lisa Proctor as an independent ALP candidate in 2006 complaining about local factionalism and the ineptitude of the hack that Labor put into the seat at the time, Tracy Lund in 2014 on a ‘Voices of the Valley’ copycat campaign from Indi, then in 2018 you had Northe (independent ex-Nat incumbent), Ricky Muir (Shooters), and Ray Burgess (independent advocating for Morwell small business and the coal sector). Only in 2010 was there a lack of a big independent vote but there was Country Alliance and tow indies who between them got just over 10%. Will be interesting to see if another local independent emerges.
Traditionally would be a Labor seat on these boundaries, but with Dan Andrews being unpopular in this area and a strong ON vote, this could end up helping the Nats. Still hard to tell at this point
Zac, Morwell has already been becoming more conservative voting compare to its safe Labor voting past even before Daniel Andrews. The decline of Coal Mining is a factor and the reason Labor fell is due to the decline of Coal Mining and 2018 was just a fluke due to lack certainy of Vic Libs policies
Look at the results except for 2010.. 66% nat all contests were marginal.in this seat. The Latrobe Valley has of course lost coal mining jobs.. and power generation jobs but is close to Melbourne within 100.kms I think.
Mick, I believe Moe is around 140kms from Melbourne, but is still part of the commuter belt for some travelling to Dandenong and Melbourne for work each day. Still isn’t attracting commuters moving further out in the same way that Warragul/Drouin areas would, but is a cheaper option for some
Are the Liberals competitive in this seat to overtake the Nationals?
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