ALP 2.7%
Incumbent MP
Vicki Ward, since 2014.
Geography
Eastern Melbourne. Eltham covers the suburbs of Briar Hill, Diamond Creek, Eltham, Eltham North, Greensborough, Kangaroo Ground Lower Plenty, Montmorency, Research and parts of St Helena and Watsons Creek. Eltham covers parts of the City of Banyule and Nillumbik Shire.
History
Eltham was first created in 1992. It was first won by the Liberal Party’s Wayne Phillips. He was re-elected in 1996 and 1999, but was defeated in 2002 by the ALP’s Steve Herbert.
Steve Herbert was re-elected in Eltham in 2006 and 2010. In 2014 he moved to the Legislative Council as a member representing Northern Victoria, and resigned from parliament in 2017.
Labor’s Vicki Ward won Eltham in 2014.
Candidates
- Nick McGowan (Liberal)
- Vicki Ward (Labor)
- Matthew Goodman (Greens)
- Peter O’Brien (Democratic Labour)
Assessment
Eltham is a marginal seat but will likely stay in Labor hands.
2014 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Steven Briffa | Liberal | 17,727 | 43.9 | -0.9 |
| Vicki Ward | Labor | 16,374 | 40.6 | +1.9 |
| Liezl Shnookal | Greens | 4,600 | 11.4 | -1.5 |
| Chris Byrne | Independent | 555 | 1.4 | +1.4 |
| Janna Fenn | Family First | 490 | 1.2 | -0.7 |
| Michael Janson | Australian Christians | 345 | 0.9 | +0.9 |
| Ryan Ebert | Independent | 251 | 0.6 | +0.6 |
| Informal | 1,808 | 4.3 |
2014 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Vicki Ward | Labor | 21,258 | 52.7 | +1.9 |
| Steven Briffa | Liberal | 19,084 | 47.3 | -1.9 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Eltham have been divided into three areas: east, west and north.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 51.8% in the north-west to 55.5% in the south-west.
The Greens primary vote ranged from 7.1% in the north-west to 14.8% in the east.
| Voter group | GRN prim % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| East | 14.8 | 55.0 | 9,354 | 23.2 |
| North-West | 7.1 | 51.8 | 7,335 | 18.2 |
| South-West | 13.8 | 55.5 | 6,467 | 16.0 |
| Other votes | 10.9 | 49.9 | 5,782 | 14.3 |
| Pre-poll | 10.3 | 51.2 | 11,404 | 28.3 |
Election results in Eltham at the 2014 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Greens primary votes.
Seat polls aren’t reliable but there was one showing Labor’s support firming up in this area.
Any negativity about the North East link would go to Greens (who should do well in this area) and flow straight back to Labor.
ALP retain on a sophomore surge
Given it had been Liberal held for a decade up until 2002, Eltham was a good seat to hold when Labor lost government in 2010.
The below average swing in 2014 was probably down to the retiring incumbent. There’s a good chance we’ll see an above average performance for Labor this time around.
The liberal candidate has been campaigning via letterbox drops, meetings and mobile billboards since early this year. At this stage the volume of their material far exceeds the ALP candidates. That outlay suggests to me they believe there are at least some gains to be made?
My prediction: Likely Labor hold, although should remain marginal.