Ringwood – Victoria 2014

LIB 6.3%

Incumbent MP
Dee Ryall, Member for Mitcham since 2010.

Geography
Eastern suburbs of Melbourne. Ringwood takes in the suburbs of Mitcham, Ringwood, Ringwood East and parts of Blackburn North, Croydon, Donvale, Ringwood North and Nunawading.

Map of Ringwood's 2010 and 2014 boundaries. 2010 boundaries marked as red lines, 2014 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.
Map of Ringwood’s 2010 and 2014 boundaries. 2010 boundaries marked as red lines, 2014 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.

Redistribution
Ringwood is a new electorate, made up of parts of five other electorates: Bayswater, Doncaster, Kilsyth, Mitcham and Warrandyte. The electorate is considered to be a successor to Mitcham, which covered about half of the new electorate. The eastern half of the seat was previously split between Bayswater, Kilsyth and Warrandyte. While Mitcham previously was held by a 2.8% margin, it is estimated that the Liberal Party now holds Ringwood by a 6.3% margin.

History
Ringwood previously existed from 1958 to 1992. It was held by the Liberal Party from 1958 to 1982, and by Labor for a decade before its abolition.

Mitcham has existed from the 1967 election until the upcoming election. It was a marginal electorate for most of that time, alternating between the Labor Party and Liberal Party.

Mitcham was first won in 1967 by the Liberal Party’s Dorothy Goble. She held the seat until her retirement in 1976.

Mitcham was won in 1976 by George Cox, also of the Liberal Party. He held the seat for two terms, but was defeated in 1982. He later went on to hold the seat of Nunawading from 1988 to 1996.

Cox was defeated in 1982 by John Harrowfield. He served as a minister in the Kirner government from 1991 to 1992, when he lost his seat, and the government lost power.

Harrowfield was defeated in 1992 by Roger Pescott. He had previously served as Member for Bennettswood since 1985.

Pescott was re-elected in 1996, but in 1997 he resigned from Parliament, triggering a by-election. The ensuing by-election was won by the ALP’s Tony Robinson with a 16% swing.

Robinson was re-elected narrowly in 1999 with a 0.5% margin. He increased that to a 7.8% margin in 2002, before it was reduced to a 2% margin in 2006. In 2010, Mitcham was won by Liberal candidate Dee Ryall, with a 4.7% swing.

Candidates

Assessment
Ringwood’s 6.3% margin is reasonably solid for the Liberal Party, and would require a solid pro-Labor swing to see the seat change hands.

2010 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Dee Ryall Liberal 15,717 46.55 +7.09 49.92
Tony Robinson Labor 11,669 34.56 -5.56 31.73
Sheridan Lewis Greens 4,024 11.92 +0.33 11.67
Paul Elliott Sex Party 963 2.85 +2.85 2.17
Daniel Ha Family First 758 2.25 -2.28 2.93
Barry O’Shea Democratic Labor 632 1.87 +1.87 1.13
Other independents 0.45

2010 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Dee Ryall Liberal 17,817 52.77 +4.74 56.30
Tony Robinson Labor 15,946 47.23 -4.74 43.70
Polling places in Ringwood at the 2010 Victorian state election.
Polling places in Ringwood at the 2010 Victorian state election.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Ringwood have been divided into four areas: central, north-east, south-east and west.

The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all four areas, ranging from 50.8% in the west to 61% in the north-east.

The Greens polled 11-12% in all four areas.

Voter group GRN % LIB 2PP % Total % of votes
West 11.37 50.82 7,282 20.04
South-East 11.60 57.46 6,619 18.22
North-East 11.56 61.97 6,300 17.34
Central 11.88 52.93 5,261 14.48
Other votes 11.86 57.98 10,874 29.93
Two-party-preferred votes in Ringwood at the 2010 Victorian state election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Ringwood at the 2010 Victorian state election.
Greens primary votes in Ringwood at the 2010 Victorian state election.
Greens primary votes in Ringwood at the 2010 Victorian state election.

3 COMMENTS

  1. will be a close contest as the media keeps predicting. Liberals are putting a lot of money and resources into holding this seat. Strong local MP in a tough seat.

  2. This could have retained the name Mitcham. As far as I can tell, the suburb still falls entirely within the district. Conversely, parts of Ringwood fall outside it. Though I can see the logic in naming it so: Ringwood, Ringwood North & Ringwood East makes up so much of the seat.

    Presumably the east/west split in those booth results is an artefact of Mitcham being seriously contested last time and the eastern parts not. And perhaps a personal vote for Robinson. If so, treat the matched booths model with caution.

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