LIB 0.3%
Incumbent MP
Donna Bauer, since 2010.
Geography
South-eastern Melbourne. Carrum covers the suburbs of Seaford, Skye, Carrum Downs, Bonbeach, Carrum and Patterson Lakes. Most of the electorate lives in the Frankston and Kingston council areas, and a small part of the Greater Dandenong council area.
Redistribution
Carrum shifted south-east. Carrum lost Aspendale, Chelsea and Edithvale to Mordialloc, and gained Carrum Downs, Skye and Sandhurst from Cranbourne, as well as southern parts of Lyndhurst. These changes cut the Liberal margin from 2.2% to 0.3%.
History
Carrum was first created for the 1976 election. It has been won by the ALP at every election except for the 1996 election, when it was won by the Liberal Party.
Carrum was first won in 1976 by the ALP’s Ian Cathie, who had previously been a member of the Legislative Council for South East Province from 1964 to 1970. Cathie served as a minister in the Labor state government from 1982 until his retirement at the 1988 election.
Cathie was succeeded in 1988 by Mal Sandon. He had previously been an MLC representing Chelsea Province from 1982 until earlier in 1988. He served as a minister in the state government from 1990 until 1992. Sandon lost his seat in 1996 to the Liberal Party’s David Lean.
Lean held the seat for one term, losing in 1999 to the ALP’s Jenny Lindell.
Lindell was re-elected in 2002 and 2006, and was elected Speaker of the Legislative Assembly in 2006.
Lindell was defeated in 2010 by Liberal candidate Donna Bauer.
Candidates
- Richard Vernay (Family First)
- Donna Bauer (Liberal)
- Sonya Kilkenny (Labor)
- Henry Kelsall (Greens)
- Margaret Quinn (Rise Up Australia)
Assessment
Carrum is a very marginal seat. Donna Bauer is a first-term MP who should benefit from a new personal vote, but the seat will likely swing to the party that wins government.
2010 election result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Donna Bauer | Liberal | 17,539 | 46.37 | +8.27 | 43.64 |
| Jenny Lindell | Labor | 14,430 | 38.15 | -9.77 | 40.22 |
| Henry Kelsall | Greens | 3,593 | 9.50 | +0.60 | 9.23 |
| John Churchwood | Family First | 939 | 2.48 | -1.10 | 2.63 |
| Ewa Losinski | Democratic Labor | 873 | 2.31 | +2.31 | 2.41 |
| Steven Garland | Independent | 447 | 1.18 | +1.18 | 0.77 |
| Other independents | 1.10 |
2010 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Donna Bauer | Liberal | 19,681 | 52.04 | +8.74 | 50.31 |
| Jenny Lindell | Labor | 18,140 | 47.96 | -8.74 | 49.69 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Carrum have been divided into three areas: East, West and North-West. The ‘East’ area mostly covers Carrum Downs, while West and North-West cover areas closer to the Bay.
The Liberal Party won a large 58% majority in the north-west areas, while Labor won smaller majorities in east and west.
The Greens came third, with a vote ranging from 7.6% in the east to 12.6% in the west.
| Voter group | GRN % | LIB 2PP % | Total | % of votes |
| East | 7.61 | 46.85 | 10,881 | 30.69 |
| West | 12.58 | 47.91 | 6,818 | 19.23 |
| North-West | 8.12 | 58.06 | 6,230 | 17.57 |
| Other votes | 9.38 | 50.81 | 11,530 | 32.52 |
Apparently Donna Bauer is a strong chance of retaining this seat. Is she does, it will be one of the most stunning victories in Victoria’s electoral history.
Carrum is a traditional Labor seat that was a surprise gain for the Liberals in 2010. Bauer lost over half the seat in the redistribution, meaning half the sophomore surge. On top of that, she has had her own health problems to deal with this year which has meant he hasn’t been able to be on the ground as much.
Even though Bauer is an extremely popular MP, I had expected Labor to gain this seat. The fact that it looks like Bauer might retain is bad news for Labor.
Internal polling probably won’t be a great indicator because it’s state politics but as soon as campaign kicks off then that’s when people will probably start to care. Federally 2pp is bad for the coalition so that might play into the results just a bit
Carrum may be a traditional Labor seat, but I think the demographic change is favouring the Liberals. They won it with a greater margin in 2010, despite a close statewide result, than in the landslide of 1996. There were some local issues in play, but that’s quite a shift.
Carrum/Seaford have never been the most desirable suburbs, but their position on the water almost guarantees they would become more affluent and Liberal, as people get priced out of the bayside suburbs closer in. Things like the Patterson Lakes canal estates (the big 65% Liberal booth) have also helped attract a much wealthier demographic into the area over the past couple of decades.
The big issue down here is the Frankston train line, which the Libs are proposing would be re-routed via a new stop at ‘Fishermans Bend’ – though really it’s a stop near the Casino – before going to Southern Cross, before turning around and going back to Frankston. This would mean that commuters along this line needing to go to other stops would have to change trains at Southern Cross as they’d be taken off the City Loop.
Donna Bauer is active, but Labor has a strong candidate here and should be favourites under the current political climate.
This is my old electorate, I’ve now been redistributed into Mordialloc. The booths in Patterson Lakes have always swung blue, but Carrum Downs always is more left.
One interesting thing is with the loss of Chelsea – Aspendale, there may be more focus on Patterson Lakes. Residents in Carrum don’t take too lightly to the Patterson Lakes-centric view of things.
Donna may be popular but she can also be polarising. There’s not too much ambivalence towards her, either you really like her or you really don’t.
I think the Frankston line issues may just be too great to overcome for the Liberals here.
Dan Andrews and Bill Shorten were in Carrum yesterday to announce the removal of level crossings in Carrum and Seaford.
This will be closer than perhaps many think, but it’s hard to see Bauer holding on.