Launceston – Tasmania LC 2023

Incumbent MLC
Rosemary Armitage (Independent), since 2011.

Geography
Launceston urban area. The seat of Launceston covers the Launceston city centre and the surrounding suburbs of Hadspen, Travellers Rest, Prospect Vale, Youngtown, Kings Meadows, Punchbowl, South Launceston, East Launceston and Devon Hills.

Redistribution
Launceston expanded south to take in less urban areas to the south of the Launceston city centre from Western Tiers, stopping just short of Perth. Launceston also lost Prospect to Rosevears.

History
The seat of Launceston existed as a single-member electorate from 1946 until 1999, when the seat was renamed Paterson. This seat was renamed back to Launceston in 2008.

The seat has been held by members of both parties. Two successive Labor MLCs held the seat from 1950 until 1958, and then by two Liberal MLCs from 1958 until 1968.

A 1968 by-election was triggered by the sitting Liberal MLC, John Orchard, being made ineligible to hold his seat. Legislation removed his ineligibility but he was defeated by independent Ray Shipp.

Shipp was re-elected in 1970 and 1976, but was defeated in 1982 by another independent, Don Wing.

Wing had previously served as president of the Liberal Party in Tasmania, but served his time in the upper house as a conservative independent. Wing also served as Mayor of Launceston from 1983 until 1987.

Wing held his seat in the upper house for close to thirty years. In 1999, the number of seats in the upper house was cut from nineteen to fifteen, and he was re-elected to represent the suburban Launceston seat renamed as Paterson, and switched to represent the seat of Launceston when it was restored in 2008, although he never won a term representing the seat on current boundaries.

Wing stepped down at the 2011 election, and was succeeded by Rosemary Armitage. Both Liberal and Labor parties contested the election, along with centrist independent Rosemary Armitage. The Liberal candidate topped the primary vote but Armitage benefited from preferences from Labor and another independent and won the seat comfortably.

Armitage was re-elected in 2017 with a reduced margin.

Candidates

Assessment
Armitage faced strong opposition in 2011 and 2017. This year she is only facing opposition from the Greens. The Greens probably have a stronger chance in an urban electorate, but have never been as strong in Launceston as they are in Hobart. Armitage will likely win re-election with ease.

2017 result

Candidate Party Votes %
Rosemary Armitage Independent 6,891 35.0
Neroli Ellis Independent 5,938 30.1
Brian Roe Labor 2,819 14.3
Mark Tapsell Independent 1,654 8.4
Emma Anglesey Greens 1,441 7.3
Matthew Allen Shooters, Fishers and Farmers 952 4.8
Informal 746 3.6

2017 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes %
Rosemary Armitage Independent 10,151 52.2
Neroli Ellis Independent 9,312 47.8

Booth breakdown

Polling places in Launceston have been split into three parts: north-east, south-east and south-west. The Launceston city centre is included in the north-east, and the south-west covers more sparsely-populated areas.

Armitage topped the primary vote in all three areas, with the biggest lead in the south-east. Neroli Ellis came second in all three areas, coming within 0.8% of Armitage in the north-east.

Voter group Armitage % Ellis % ALP % Total votes % of votes
South-East 34.7 29.0 17.0 5,944 30.2
South-West 32.4 30.7 14.7 4,841 24.6
North-East 32.7 31.9 11.9 3,901 19.8
Pre-poll 40.1 30.4 11.4 2,367 12.0
Postal 39.6 27.1 15.2 1,498 7.6
Other votes 38.5 31.7 11.8 1,144 5.8

Election results in Launceston at the 2017 Legislative Council election
Toggle between primary votes for independent candidate Rosemary Armitage, independent candidate Neroli Ellis and Labor candidate Brian Roe.

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