Braddon – Tasmania 2021

Incumbent MPs

  • Shane Broad (Labor)*, since 2017.
  • Anita Dow (Labor), since 2018.
  • Felix Ellis (Liberal), since 2020.
  • Roger Jaensch (Liberal), since 2014.
  • Jeremy Rockliff (Liberal), since 2002.

*Ellis filled a casual vacancy caused by the resignation of Joan Rylah on 17 August 2020. Rylah had replaced Adam Brooks in 2019.

Geography
Braddon covers the West Coast and North-West of Tasmania, including the islands to Tasmania’s northwest. The seat covers West Coast, Burnie, Central Coast, Circular Head, Latrobe, Devonport and Waratah/Wynyard councils. The seat’s largest centres are the towns of Devonport and Burnie.

Redistribution
Braddon expanded to take in the remainder of the Latrobe council area, including Port Sorell, from Lyons. This change increased the Liberal vote by 0.4% and slightly reduced the Labor vote.

History
Braddon was first created for the 1956 election, sharing a name and boundaries with the federal electorate of Braddon. This replaced the seat of Darwin, which had previously covered northwestern Tasmania since the introduction of proportional representation in 1909.

The ALP won four seats and the Anti-Socialists two in Darwin at the 1909 election. The ALP and Liberals divided the seats equally 3-3 at the 1912 and 1913 elections. The Liberals lost one of their three seats in 1916 and 1919, and in 1922 the Liberals were reduced to one seat, with the Country Party winning two.

From 1925 to 1955 the ALP and the Nationalist/Liberal parties split the seats in Darwin 3-3 with two exceptions. The Nationalists won a 4-2 majority in 1931 and the ALP won a 4-2 majority in 1941. A 3-3 split was repeated in the new seat of Braddon in 1956.

The ALP won a 4-3 majority in 1959 and 1964 after Braddon gained a seventh seat. The Liberals lost one of their three seats to an independent in 1969, and that seat went to the ALP in 1972, giving them a 5-2 majority. The ALP again won 4-3 majorities in 1976 and 1979, and the Liberals gained 4-3 majorities in 1982 and 1986.

The ALP lost one of their three seats to Green independent Di Hollister in 1989, while the Liberals maintained their four seats. The Liberals gained a 5-1-1 majority in 1992, and reverted to a 4-2-1 majority in 1996.

The Liberal vote collapsed in 1998 when Braddon’s seats were cut to five, and the Liberals lost two of their seats, as did Greens MP Di Hollister. The ALP gained a third seat, for a 3-2 split. This result was maintained in 2002, 2006 and 2010. It was the only seat at the 2002 and 2006 elections where the Greens failed to elect an MP.

In 2010, the ALP lost their third seat to the Greens. Two Labor sitting MPs were re-elected, while Steve Kons retired and his seat was won by the Greens’ Paul O’Halloran. On the Liberal side, Jeremy Rockliff was re-elected, while sitting Liberal MP Brett Whiteley was narrowly defeated by fellow Liberal Adam Brooks.

There was a 13% swing to the Liberal Party in 2014, while Labor lost 17% and the Greens lost 6%. 7% of the electorate voted for the Palmer United Party (at the time represented in the Senate by Jacqui Lambie). The Greens lost their sole seat, while Labor also lost one of their two seats. The Liberal Party doubled their representation from two to four.

The Liberal Party lost one of their four seats in 2018, with Labor regaining their second seat.

Candidates

Assessment
This is one of the strongest electorates in Tasmania for the Liberal Party. The Liberals need to retain their three seats to have a shot at regaining a majority. This is the strongest part of the state for Jacqui Lambie – it’s hard to see her party winning a seat but this would be the best chance.

2018 result

CandidateVotes%QuotaRedist %
Jeremy Rockliff16,61225.81.5499
Adam Brooks10,00415.60.9334
Roger Jaensch4,1716.50.3892
Joan Rylah3,4365.30.3206
Felix Ellis1,8422.90.1719
Liberal Party 36,065 56.1 3.3649 56.5
Anita Dow5,6378.80.5259
Shane Broad5,3368.30.4979
Themba Bulle2,7574.30.2572
Danielle Kidd2,1133.30.1971
Wayne Roberts1,7092.70.1595
Australian Labor Party 17,552 27.3 1.6376 27.2
Gina Timms1,1391.80.1063
Rodney Flowers8181.30.0763
Roz Flanagan6821.10.0636
Tim Lovell6101.00.0569
Colin Smith5560.90.0519
Jacqui Lambie Network 3,805 5.9 0.3550 5.9
Scott Jordan1,2051.90.1124
Sally O’Wheel3520.60.0328
Julie Norbury2950.50.0275
Tom Kingston2380.40.0222
Philip Nicholas2070.30.0193
Tasmanian Greens 2,297 3.6 0.2143 3.7
Glen Saltmarsh5800.90.0541
Brett Neal4590.70.0428
Brenton Jones3300.50.0308
Kim Swanson2420.40.0226
Shooters, Fishers and Farmers 1,611 2.5 0.1503 2.5
Steven Honey1640.30.0153
Cherie Halkett1120.20.0104
Tasmanians 4 Tasmania 276 0.4 0.0258 0.4
Craig Garland1,9673.10.1835
Brenton Best5930.90.0553
Liz Hamer1410.20.0132
Total Others 2,701 4.2 0.2520 4.0
Informal3,7915.60.0000

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into six areas. Polling places in the Circular Head, Waratah/Wynyard and West Coast LGAs were divided into North West and South West. Polling places in Devonport and Latrobe council areas have been grouped into one group. Polling places in Burnie and Central Coast council areas have been grouped together separately.

Booths on King Island have been grouped together, with those in the sparsely populated west of the electorate’s mainland split between North West and South West.

The Liberal Party topped the poll in every area, with a vote ranging from 49.4% in Burnie to 59.9% in Devonport-Latrobe.

The Labor vote ranged from 22.1% on King Island to 34.7% in Burnie.

The Jacqui Lambie Network came third, with a primary vote ranging from 5.5% on King Island to 7.8% in the south-west.

Voter groupLIB %ALP %JLN %Total votes% of votes
Devonport-Latrobe59.927.54.417,17025.1
Central Coast58.526.46.312,13017.7
North-West54.122.77.010,37815.2
Burnie49.434.76.29,26513.5
South-West54.825.17.82,0353.0
King Island51.822.15.58161.2
Other votes55.926.76.07,78511.4
Pre-poll58.426.36.18,84512.9

Election results in Braddon at the 2018 Tasmanian election
Toggle between primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor Party and the Greens.

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