LIB 11.9%
Incumbent MP
Ashton Hurn, since 2022.
Geography
Regional South Australia. Schubert covers parts of the Barossa Valley to the north-east of Adelaide. Schubert covers the towns of Nuriootpa, Angaston, Tanunda, Gumeracha, Birdwood and Mount Torrens.
History
The electorate of Schubert has existed since 1997, when it replaced the seat of Custance.
The electorate of Custance had been first created for the 1985 election, when it was won by Liberal leader John Olsen, who had been in Parliament since 1979.
Olsen was re-elected in 1989, when he led the Liberal Party to another election defeat. In 1990, he resigned from Parliament to fill a Liberal Party vacancy in the Australian Senate.
Liberal candidate Ivan Venning won the 1990 Custance by-election. Venning was re-elected in Custance in 1993, and won Schubert four times between 1997 and 2010.
Venning retired in 2014, and Liberal candidate Stephan Knoll was elected. Knoll was re-elected in 2018, and retired in 2022.
Liberal candidate Ashton Hurn won Schubert in 2022. Hurn was elected leader of the Liberal Party in December 2025.
- Ashton Hurn (Liberal)
- James Rothe (Labor)
- Alice Shore (Animal Justice)
Assessment
Schubert on paper is a reasonably safe Liberal seat, but in current circumstances it could be close.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Ashton Hurn | Liberal | 12,580 | 51.4 | +2.1 |
| Connor Watson | Labor | 5,557 | 22.7 | +1.9 |
| Beverley Morris | Greens | 2,493 | 10.2 | +4.8 |
| Phill Mueller | One Nation | 1,658 | 6.8 | +6.8 |
| Alfred Gerhard | Family First | 934 | 3.8 | +3.8 |
| Lea Rebane | Independent | 707 | 2.9 | +2.9 |
| Bruce Preece | Nationals | 522 | 2.1 | +2.1 |
| Informal | 960 | 3.8 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Ashton Hurn | Liberal | 15,124 | 61.9 | -3.8 |
| Connor Watson | Labor | 9,327 | 38.1 | +3.8 |
Booths have been divided into four parts: east, north, south and west.
The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all four areas, ranging from 59.0% in the south to 67.1% in the north.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 10.3% in the north to 12.4% in the east.
| Voter group | GRN prim | LIB 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| North | 10.3 | 67.1 | 5,963 | 24.4 |
| South | 11.1 | 59.0 | 4,005 | 16.4 |
| West | 11.2 | 59.9 | 3,914 | 16.0 |
| East | 12.4 | 60.1 | 1,462 | 6.0 |
| Other votes | 9.0 | 60.8 | 9,107 | 37.2 |
Election results in Schubert at the 2022 South Australian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor and the Greens.
It’s been reported that there is an internal push in the Liberals for Ashton Hurn to take over the SA Liberals leadership. The Liberals’ polling is so dire that they may be left with only 3 seats after the state election. Schubert, being one of those seats the Liberals would retain alongside Flinders and Chaffey, Hurn won’t challenge but has suggested she wouldn’t refuse being drafted into the leadership.
I read about it. Both Vince Tarzia and Ashton Hurn have denied the speculation. Would Ashton Hurn save the furniture better?
She could become the leader post-election if other Liberals get wiped out.
Better to just let the voters throw out the fur inure. Start from scratch
Like I’ve said for Victoria, changing the leader isn’t the problem here I haven’t heard negative things about Vince Tarzia as a leader more the party is really divided. I’d argue changing the leader so close to an election would just solidify their fate and could only make the result worse.
Sorry I mean NSW not Victoria.
Don’t really know if this has been brought up, Labor has announced a candidate here, James Rothe (their candidate in Barker in 2025).
I’m pretty sure if the swings in most opinion polls were uniform, this seat would barely flip. But this seat has been Liberal heartland, more rural in character, and Ashton Hurn doesn’t appear to be as controversial and as vulnerable as some of her colleagues.
Will say a Liberal retain for now but could get interesting if Labor is having a particularly good night here.
This is probably a liberal hold. The swing will be higher in central Adelaide than here. Changing the captain of ship after it’s sunk doesn’t do anything except creat confusion and panic. Sorry but the ship in SA isn’t sinking anymore it’s already gone down. Imagine the titanic crew changing the captain after everyone’s already loaded into life rafts. The ships is already flooded and is starting to go down the bow is underwater Leonardo do caprio is making his way to stern.
I found the leadership speculation to be interesting. It probably sprouted as a result of Liberal leadership changes interstate. Ashton is a first-term female MP, like the Liberal leaders of NSW and VIC. She’s 34 and will turn 35 before election day.
@ John
I agree with you i dont think changing leaders is a good idea at this very late stage. Vincent Tarzia job is just to save as many of the furniture as possible and write off the house. They need to save as many rural seats i think this should be easier as I believe swing will be concentrated in metro Adelaide. I think Tarzia should try and save at least one seat is Adelaide which Bragg so Jack Batty can be leader post election. I think it is best to have an Adealide based leader if possible as 80% of SA population is in Adelaide and thre is no path to even a minority government without winning as many Adealide seats (maybe not a majority).
I think Ashton Hurn could be good as an interim/temporary leader post 2026 if the Liberals do get wiped out completely from Metropolitan Adelaide (with Jack Batty losing in Bragg). She would be like Libby Mettam in WA or Sussan Ley federally, filling the void for one term until the party can find someone with a higher profile to run and win in 2030.
Ashton Hurn has been unanimously elected to be the SA Liberal leader. There’s a little over 100 days till the election.