Ramsay – SA 2014

ALP 17.8%

Incumbent MP
Zoe Bettison, since 2012.

Geography
Northern Adelaide. Ramsay is centres on the Salisbury area, including Salisbury, Brahma Lodge, Salisbury Downs and Salisbury Plains and parts of Paralowie, Salisbury North and Parafield Gardens.

Map of Ramsay's 2010 and 2014 boundaries. 2010 boundaries marked as red lines, 2014 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.
Map of Ramsay’s 2010 and 2014 boundaries. 2010 boundaries marked as red lines, 2014 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.

Redistribution
Ramsay gained part of Parafield Gardens from Port Adelaide, which reduced the ALP’s margin from 18% to 17.8%.

History
The electorate of Ramsay has existed since the 1985 election. The seat was successively held by two Labor premiers, prior to the 2012 by-election.

Lynn Arnold won Ramsay in 1985, having held the previous seat of Salisbury from 1978 to 1985. Arnold served as a minister from 1982, and 1992 became the Premier of South Australia at the tail-end of the Labor government in 1992.

Arnold shifted to the new seat of Taylor at the 1993 election, when he also lost government. Arnold resigned from Parliament in 1994.

Mike Rann won Ramsay at the 1993 election. Rann had previously held the seat of Briggs from 1985 until its abolition in 1993. Rann was elected leader of the South Australian Labor Party in 1994.

Rann led the ALP into government at the 2002 election, and served as Premier for eleven years, until October 2011. Rann resigned from Parliament in early 2012.

At the 2012 by-election, Zoe Bettison was elected for the ALP.

Candidates
Sitting Labor MP Zoe Bettison is running for re-election. The Liberal Party is running Anthony Antoniadis. The Greens are running Brett Ferris. Family First are running Paul Coombe.

Assessment
Ramsay is the ALP’s safest seat in the state.

2010 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Mike Rann ALP 11,446 57.9 -13.6
David Balaza LIB 4,927 24.9 +6.6
Dale Ramsey FF 1,900 9.6 +9.6
Paul Petit GRN 903 4.6 -0.3
Rod Steinert DEM 587 3.0 -0.6

2010 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Mike Rann ALP 13,431 68.0 -10.5
David Balaza LIB 6,332 32.0 +10.5

2012 by-election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Zoe Bettison ALP 8,843 54.6 -3.3
Mark Aldridge IND 2,614 16.1 +16.1
Christopher Steele LDP 2,157 13.3 +13.3
Ruth Beach GRN 1,072 6.6 +2.0
Chris Walsh ON 563 3.5 +3.5
Trevor Grace IND 510 3.2 +3.2
Mark Lena FREE 430 2.7 +2.7

2012 by-election two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Zoe Bettison ALP 10,795 66.7
Mark Aldridge IND 5,394 33.3
Polling places in Ramsay at the 2010 state election. East in green, North in orange, West in blue. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Ramsay at the 2010 state election. East in green, North in orange, West in blue. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into three areas: east, north and west.

The ALP won a majority in all three areas at the 2010 state election, ranging from 63.1% in the east to 71.6% in the north.

Family First came third, with a vote ranging from 8.8% in the east to 9.7% in the north.

At the 2012 by-election, the ALP won a majority in all three areas on primary votes, ranging from just over 50% in the east to 56.8% in the north.

Independent candidate Mark Aldridge came second at the by-election, with a vote ranging from 15.5% in the west to 18.8% in the east. The Liberal Democratic Party came third, ranging from 10% to 13.9% in the west.

2010 election breakdown

Voter group FF % ALP 2PP % Total votes % of ordinary votes
West 9.57 69.26 8,074 48.39
East 8.79 63.11 4,495 26.94
North 9.74 71.61 4,117 24.67
Other votes 10.20 66.02 3,785

2012 by-election breakdown

Voter group LDP % IND % ALP % Total votes % of votes
West 13.87 15.45 55.75 6,396 39.51
East 13.13 18.75 50.03 3,952 24.41
North 10.00 16.19 56.82 3,330 20.57
Other votes 16.65 13.78 56.07 2,511 15.51
Two-party-preferred votes in Ramsay at the 2010 state election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Ramsay at the 2010 state election.
Family First primary votes in Ramsay at the 2010 state election.
Family First primary votes in Ramsay at the 2010 state election.
Labor primary votes at the 2012 Ramsay by-election.
Labor primary votes at the 2012 Ramsay by-election.
Primary votes for independent candidate Mark Aldridge at the 2012 Ramsay by-election.
Primary votes for independent candidate Mark Aldridge at the 2012 Ramsay by-election.
Liberal Democratic Party primary votes at the 2012 Ramsay by-election.
Liberal Democratic Party primary votes at the 2012 Ramsay by-election.

4 COMMENTS

  1. Will be interesting to see how the Northern Adelaide electorates respond to the recent closures in the automotive industry and the Fed Gov cutting support for the industry. I wouldn’t be surprised to see it hold more strongly Labor than other parts of the state.

  2. I am posting my predictions of each seat, which I will revise where appropriate a day or two before the election.

    My prediction: Labor retain.

  3. Labour will retain this seat. In the bag. The Liberals haven’t even bothered to put in a decent candidate.

  4. The reason why the Liberals do not field a credible opponent -Safe seat syndrome
    .In safe Liberal seats such as Finniss, Kavel, Heysen and Hammond The Labor Party does the same – Paper candidate. Why Bother?
    The only Cure for S.S.S is for the voters to make these seats marginal seats!

Comments are closed.