Broadwater – QLD 2020

LNP 18.0%

Incumbent MP
David Crisafulli, since 2017. Previously Member for Mundingburra 2012-2015.

Geography
Northern parts of the Gold Coast. The seat covers the suburbs of Hope Island, Biggera Waters, Runaway Bay, Coombabah and Paradise Point as well as South Stradbroke Island.

History
The electorate of Broadwater was first created for the 1992 election. The seat was won by the National Party from 1992 to 2001, then by Labor from 2001 until 2012, when the LNP won the seat back.

At the first election in 1992 the seat was considered safe for the conservative parties and was fiercely contested by the Liberal Party and the National Party, with the National Party’s Allan Grice winning the seat.

Grice held the seat at the 1995 and 1998 elections, but was defeated in 2001 by the ALP’s Peta-Kaye Croft. Croft was re-elected in 2004, 2006 and 2009.

In 2012, Croft was defeated by Liberal National candidate Verity Barton, who easily knocked over Croft’s 2% margin with a 13.3% swing. Barton was re-elected in 2015.

Barton lost preselection before the 2017 election to David Crisafulli, who had previously held the Townsville-area seat of Mundingburra from 2012 to 2015. Crisafulli easily won Broadwater in 2017.

Candidates

Assessment
Broadwater is a very safe LNP seat.

2017 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
David Crisafulli Liberal National 13,49948.5-8.5
Peter Flori Labor 6,47723.3-1.5
Brenden BallOne Nation5,95921.4+18.6
Daniel Kwon Greens 1,9086.9+1.1
Informal1,1003.8

2017 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
David Crisafulli Liberal National 18,92868.0+1.7
Peter Flori Labor 8,91532.0-1.7

Booth breakdown

Booths in Broadwater have been divided into three areas: central, north and south.

The Liberal National Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 55.8% in the centre to 68.5% in the north.

One Nation came third, with a primary vote ranging from 20.1% in the north to 25.2% in the centre.

Voter groupON primLNP 2PPTotal votes% of votes
North20.168.57,03625.3
South20.961.23,91914.1
Central25.255.82,3378.4
Pre-poll22.773.09,73134.9
Other votes19.268.44,82017.3

Election results in Broadwater at the 2017 QLD state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and One Nation primary votes.


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8 COMMENTS

  1. For a very affluent area (just look at Runaway Bay and see what I mean) I’m surprised at how high the ONP vote was last time! With David Crisafulli well liked and touted as a future LNP Leader, the only thing to watch in this seat is how high will his vote go above 50% first pref. This is one seat, if it wasn’t QLD, I’d expect the Greens to be challenging for second of the 2CP, ala North Shore seats of Sydney. But seems the ONP have the protest vote for now and will be interesting to see if the can replicate their 2017 showing.

    Prediction (August 2020): LNP Retain

  2. September Prediction: Very easy LNP retain, Crisafulli no doubt between a rock and and a hard place here. Wants to be Premier, would surely be between him and Mander to get the leadership if they lose the upcoming election BUT should the LNP pull off a win, imagine trying to justify rolling Deb during the term?

  3. The redistribution before the 2017 election did the LNP a massive favour here – added almost 10% to their margin, which is why Crisafulli used it to get back into parliament. He’s lucky Verity Barton went quietly. Strange to see a seat held by Labor for a decade now the second-safest for the LNP in the state.

  4. I’m predicting that there is so much at stake in this election Queenslanders will decide they’ve had enough of the Majors and even in Runaway Bay One Nations Ex Liberal Jesse née Wheelan Schneider, at poll position may get the surprise of her life. State wide One Nation to hold the balance of power with Katters and even required to form a coalition to govern

  5. Pitty PM that you make no attempt to explain why your prediction is accurate. You may be right but not a single person will be persuaded without some hint as to how you came to these conclusions.

  6. Obvious LNP retain. The seat is also much safer in terms of redistribution that I couldn’t see the seat falling back to the Labor party again on the current margins. Even if Labor had one of those Beattie landslides.

    David Crisafulli will likely be the opposition leader if the LNP lose the next election. I actually get the sense Deb Frecklington would have been better served having Crisafulli as shadow treasurer. I know there has been some criticism of Tim Manders performance in the media. And that may have united some of the previous LNP executive who are fans of Crisafulli behind Frecklington’s leadership. But considering Crisafulli is a leadership threat Frecklington wouldn’t likely have allow that to happen.

    Interestingly the previous Labor member for Broadwater Peta-Kaye Croft endorsed Hetty Johnstons failed senate bid last year. I wonder why she left the Labor party presuming she has left.

    https://www.hettyjohnston.com.au/peta-kaye-croft-testimonial/

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