Toowoomba South – Queensland 2015

LNP 21.62%

Incumbent MP
John McVeigh, since 2012.

Geography
South-East Queensland. Southern parts of the Toowoomba urban area, specifically covering the suburbs of Glenvale, Harristown, South Toowoomba, Rangeville, Centenary Heights, Kearneys Spring, Middle Ridge and parts of Darling Heights.

History
The seat of Toowoomba South has existed since the 1972 election. It was won by the ALP at the first election but has been held by the National Party (now the LNP) ever since.

Peter Wood won Toowoomba South in 1972. He had held Toowoomba East since 1966, but moved seats when his old seat was abolished. He was defeated in 1974 by the Country Party’s John Warner.

Warner held the seat for the National Party until 1986, when he was succeeded by Clive Berghofer, also by the National Party.

Berghofer had served as Mayor of Toowoomba since 1982, and continued to serve as Mayor while sitting in Parliament. In 1991, changes in legislation banned the practice of councillors sitting in Parliament, and Berghofer resigned from Toowoomba South in order to retain his mayoralty. His term as mayor ended in 1992.

The 1991 Toowoomba South by-election was won by the National Party’s Mike Horan. Horan held Toowoomba South until 2012, and served as Leader of the Opposition from 2001 to 2003.

In 2012, Horan was succeeded by the LNP’s John McVeigh.

Candidates

Assessment
Toowoomba South is reasonably safe for the LNP, even in less favourable times.

2012 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
John McVeigh Liberal National 17,283 58.53 +5.04
Sam McFarlane Labor 6,208 21.03 -16.40
David Curless Katter’s Australian 3,520 11.92 +11.92
Trevor Smith Greens 1,619 5.48 +0.86
Charlene Phillips Independent 896 3.03 +3.03

2012 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
John McVeigh Liberal National 18,794 71.62 +13.4
Sam McFarlane Labor 7,448 28.38 -13.40
Polling places in Toowoomba South at the 2012 Queensland state election. North in green, South in blue. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Toowoomba South at the 2012 Queensland state election. North in green, South in blue. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Toowoomba South have been split into north and south.

The Liberal National Party polled much stronger in the south than in the north. The north was a better area for both Labor and Katter’s Australian Party.

On a two-party-preferred basis, the LNP won 66.5% in the north and 72.8% in the south.

The Electoral Commission does not publish two-party-preferred figures by polling place, so two-party-preferred figures in the following table and map are estimates.

Voter group LNP prim % ALP prim % KAP prim % LNP 2PP % Total % of votes
South 60.44 20.45 11.06 72.79 14,515 49.16
North 51.92 24.35 13.84 66.52 6,494 21.99
Other votes 60.33 19.47 11.92 73.41 8,517 28.85
Estimated two-party-preferred votes in Toowoomba South at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Estimated two-party-preferred votes in Toowoomba South at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Katter's Australian Party primary votes in Toowoomba South at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Katter’s Australian Party primary votes in Toowoomba South at the 2012 Queensland state election.