LNP 9.58%
Incumbent MP
Trevor Watts, since 2012.
Geography
Northern parts of Toowoomba, including central Toowoomba as well as Wilsonton, Rockville, Mount Lofty, North Toowoomba, East Toowoomba, Harlaxton and parts of Newtown.
History
The seat of Toowoomba North was first contested at the 1972 election. While the seat has been held by conservative parties for a majority of its existence, it has often been won by the ALP.
The seat was first won in 1972 by the ALP’s Ray Bousen, but he lost in a landslide victory for the Bjelke-Petersen government in 1974. John Lockwood of the Liberal Party won the seat in 1974.
Lockwood held the seat until the 1983 election, when he was defeated by Sandy McPhie of the National Party. At the 1983 election, the coalition between the National Party and the Liberal Party was dissolved, and a majority of Liberal MPs were defeated for re-election, including Lockwood.
McPhie held the seat until 1989, when he was defeated by the ALP’s John Flynn as part of the ALP’s return to power under Wayne Goss. Flynn lost in 1992 to the National Party’s Graham Healy.
Healy was re-elected in 1995 and served as a parliamentary secretary in the Borbidge government in 1998. He then served as a shadow minister after the ALP won the 1998 election.
In 2001, Peter Beattie’s ALP won a second term in a landslide, and the ALP’s Kerry Shine defeated Healy in Toowoomba North. Shine served as Attorney-General in the Beattie and Bligh governments from 2006 to 2009, and held the seat until 2012.
In 2012, Shine was defeated by LNP candidate Trevor Watts.
Candidates
- John Sands (Family First)
- Trevor Watts (Liberal National)
- Greg Keane (Independent)
- Mandeep Sandhu (Palmer United)
- Kerry Shine (Labor)
- Ken Gover (Greens)
- Ken Elliott (Katter’s Australian Party)
Assessment
Toowoomba North was held for four terms by the last Labor government, and Labor will be needing to win seats like Toowoomba North if they are on track to form government.
2012 election result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Trevor Watts | Liberal National | 14,898 | 49.75 | +7.62 |
| Kerry Shine | Labor | 9,667 | 32.28 | -15.42 |
| Peter Pyke | Katter’s Australian | 3,485 | 11.64 | +11.64 |
| Frida Forsberg | Greens | 1,461 | 4.88 | -0.31 |
| Neil Riethmuller | Independent | 433 | 1.45 | +0.41 |
2012 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Trevor Watts | Liberal National | 16,126 | 59.58 | +12.8 |
| Kerry Shine | Labor | 10,942 | 40.42 | -12.80 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Toowoomba North have been divided into two parts: north and south.
The LNP polled more strongly in the north, winning 50.2% of the primary vote and approximately 60% of the two-party-preferred vote. The LNP also topped the poll in the south, but with slightly less. The ALP primary vote was highest in the south, while Katter’s Australian Party performed slightly better in the north.
The Electoral Commission does not publish two-party-preferred figures by polling place, so two-party-preferred figures in the following table and map are estimates.
| Voter group | LNP prim % | ALP prim % | KAP prim % | LNP 2PP % | Total | % of votes |
| North | 50.23 | 31.93 | 12.61 | 60.20 | 12,645 | 42.23 |
| South | 47.78 | 33.61 | 11.01 | 57.55 | 9,317 | 31.11 |
| Other votes | 51.30 | 31.31 | 10.82 | 60.88 | 7,982 | 26.66 |
Should be a really close contest, I’d put Trevor Watts as the favourite, but Shine’s personal vote would have to count for something.
Labor did a lot to try and keep this seat in 2012 because its a seat that they need to hold to have a presence in the region regardless of whether there in government or opposition. Shine will eat up most of the KAP vote along with the backlash against the LNP, Shine will probably have a 5% margin or so after this I’d say
With Mulherin gone labors deputy leader will come from the regions again. I’d bet with Shine wins this he’d be in contention to be deputy leader. If not him either Bill Byrne in Rockhampton or Curtis Pitt in Mulgrave as the treasury portfolio will be very sought after and could be a consolation if he had to give it up
in response to “With Mulherin gone labors deputy leader will come from the regions again. I’d bet with Shine wins this he’d be in contention to be deputy leader. If not him either Bill Byrne in Rockhampton or Curtis Pitt in Mulgrave as the treasury portfolio will be very sought after and could be a consolation if he had to give it up” – they will choose Cameron Dick and he will eventually take over from Anastia.
Deputy doesn’t really make you next in line for the leadership. If that were the case Pitt would be deputy. The whole point of Mulheran was that he was from a region other then Brisbane and he was experienced. Cameron Dick would likely be Treasurer but Deputy spot would be stupid as it would be another Brisbane name on the leadership, disunity with the deputy and the leader, he has only served one term. Whereas as Shine and Pitt have been there longer and are from outside Brisbane and atleast Byrne has been in the opposition team. I don’t see how you can justify putting Cameron in the leadership team especially if Annastacia would like to hang on to the leadership and if they’d rather put disunity on the LNP side
The independent Greg Keane has a Facebook page here
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Greg-Keane-Independent-Candidate-Toowoomba-North/1595848627317108
Prepolls are looking strong for Kerry Shine and door knocking is showing a significant swing towards Kerry with Trevor Watts and the LNP out of favour with voters in Highfields.
How do people find out results of pre-polls? Do they start counting them or something?
Observations are made from peoples choice of how to vote cards at the pre -polling booths. It has been observed that voters are rejecting LNP and taking Labor How to vote cards. It might be early but it indicative of the general feeling that will be reflected on polling day.
Mr Shine is an excellent candidate……. the two Towoomba seats aren’t that different but the vote here is much better for Labor