Southern Downs – Queensland 2015

LNP 29.77% vs KAP

Incumbent MP
Lawrence Springborg, since 2001. Previously Member for Carnarvon 1989-1992, Member for Warwick 1992-2001.

Geography
Southern Queensland. Southern Downs cover rural areas stretching along the Queensland-NSW border. Major centres include Warwick, Stanthorpe, Millmerran, Texas, Inglewood and Goondiwindi. Southern Downs covers Goondiwindi and Southern Downs LGAs and parts of Toowoomba local government area.

History
The seat of Southern Downs was created at the 2001 election.

Southern Downs in 2001 was won by Lawrence Springborg, who had been a National Party MP since 1989, first for Carnarvon and then for Warwick.

Springborg had previously served briefly as a minister in the final months of the Borbidge government in 1998.

Springborg became leader of the National Party in 2003, and led the party to the 2004 and 2006 elections.

He stepped down as leader in 2006, but returned to the party’s leadership in 2008.

Later in 2008 he led the Nationals into a merger with the Liberal Party, forming the Liberal National Party. He led the LNP into the 2009 state election. He served as deputy leader of the LNP from 2009 to 2011, and has served as Minister of Health since the LNP took power in 2012.

Candidates

  • John Spellman (Family First)
  • Louise Ryan (Labor)
  • Elizabeth Ure (Greens)
  • Lawrence Springborg (Liberal National)

Assessment
Southern Downs is the safest seat in Queensland. Springborg should have no trouble winning another term.

2012 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Lawrence Springborg Liberal National 19,771 66.62 -1.65
Ade Larsen Katter’s Australian 4,112 13.86 +13.86
Suzanne Kidman Labor 3,979 13.41 -12.45
Michael Kane Greens 1,163 3.92 -1.95
John Spellman Family First 652 2.20 +2.2

2012 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Lawrence Springborg Liberal National 20,713 79.77 +8.69
Ade Larsen Katter’s Australian 5,253 20.23 +20.23
Polling places in Southern Downs at the 2012 Queensland state election. North in green, South in blue, Warwick in yellow, West in red. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Southern Downs at the 2012 Queensland state election. North in green, South in blue, Warwick in yellow, West in red. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Southern Downs have been split into four parts. Polling places in the town of Warwick were grouped together, and the remaining booths were split into north, south and west.

The Liberal National Party won a large majority of primary votes and two-candidate-preferred votes. The LNP primary vote ranged from 62.8% in the south to 70.7% in the west. The two-candidate-preferred vote (against KAP) ranged from 76.3% in the south to 83.6% in the west.

Katter’s Australian Party came second, with a vote ranging from 10.8% in the west to 16.6% in the south.

Labor came third, with a vote ranging from 11.2% in the north to 15.4% in Warwick.

The Electoral Commission does not publish two-candidate-preferred figures by polling place, so two-candidate-preferred figures in the following table are estimates.

Voter group LNP prim % KAP prim % ALP prim % LNP 2CP % Total % of votes
Warwick 63.86 14.51 15.38 78.20 6624 22.32
South 62.76 16.57 12.82 76.29 5757 19.40
North 66.82 16.16 11.22 78.14 4672 15.74
West 70.69 10.79 14.23 83.64 4456 15.01
Other votes 69.25 11.77 13.03 82.35 8168 27.52
Liberal National primary votes in Southern Downs at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Liberal National primary votes in Southern Downs at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Katter's Australian Party primary votes in Southern Downs at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Katter’s Australian Party primary votes in Southern Downs at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Labor primary votes in Southern Downs at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Labor primary votes in Southern Downs at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Liberal National primary votes in southern parts of Southern Downs at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Liberal National primary votes in southern parts of Southern Downs at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Katter's Australian Party primary votes in southern parts of Southern Downs at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Katter’s Australian Party primary votes in southern parts of Southern Downs at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Labor primary votes in southern parts of Southern Downs at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Labor primary votes in southern parts of Southern Downs at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Liberal National primary votes in Warwick at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Liberal National primary votes in Warwick at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Katter's Australian Party primary votes in Warwick at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Katter’s Australian Party primary votes in Warwick at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Labor primary votes in Warwick at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Labor primary votes in Warwick at the 2012 Queensland state election.

13 COMMENTS

  1. Worth a few bob on him then, even at his 1.01 odds. He has no opponents yet, LNP are probably going to win, and he has held this seat for 25 years

  2. What’s a Dowling by the way? What other seats would you think are absolutely dead certainties? Not Campbell’s 🙂

  3. Lawrence has no one running against him so far and has the safest seat. His local daily paper in Warwick did a story the other day stating how great it was he could spend 50% of the campaign in his electorate despite having such an important portfolio. The article was less a journalistic piece then it was a love letter about Lawrence. Easy retain and I would even suggest the likelihood of a small swing the Lawrence as the Katter vote drops.

  4. Its hard living in this seat. if the other parties would adequately fund their candidates they might have a chance of sending a message to the Borg. There are so many issues that the average person is talking about around here. CSG Drought relief, Hospitals and Health. but out here it like there no election even happening.

  5. Since this is one of the greatest issues against Cambell Newman, what is wrong with Newman’s dismissing so many? Goss dismissed 6,000 public servants from jobs they said were supernumeres (no work available) then added 12,000 to nonexisting jobs for the boys in the first year of his government. so 18000 employes in non-existing positions within Goss’s first year.
    I was one of the 6000

    How many more jobs for the boys were added by Beatty and Bligh with all the years by both when in power?

    It was interesting with Goss action against Joh for fraud. Where did the Workers Compensation fund suddenly disappear same time as 6000 retrenchments? It was in the same time immdiately after the 6,000 left that Goss claimed the WC fund are broke by false claims?? and dramatically increased the empoyers contributinons to rebuild that fund

    Can anybody seek details to show the false action by labor in their hatered of Cambell Newman

  6. Are you just going to every topic and posting this second observer? Goss, god rest his soul is no longer with us. Should we discuss Chifley and Curtin too? How about Barton? I live in the now, although I’m happy for you to mention Bligh, she at least is still quite modern.

Comments are closed.