Rockhampton – Queensland 2015

ALP 3.95%

Incumbent MP
Bill Byrne, since 2012.

Geography
Central Queensland. Rockhampton covers most of the suburbs of Rockhampton, including all of the city south of the Fitzroy River.

History
The seat of Rockhampton was first created in 1865, and existed until its abolition in 1960. The seat was restored in 1972. The seat has been held by the ALP since 1912, with the exception of two periods when the sitting Labor MP broke away from the party.

The restored seat was won in 1972 by the ALP’s Keith Wright. He was elected leader of the ALP in 1982. In 1984 he left the Legislative Assembly to take the federal seat of Capricornia. In 1993 he lost his preselection for Capricornia after being charged with child sex offences and rape, and lost his seat at that year’s election.

Paul Braddy won Rockhampton in 1985. He served as a minister in the Beattie and Bligh governments. In 1995 he moved to the seat of Kedron. He retired in 2001 when the seat of Kedron was abolished.

Robert Schwarten won the seat of Rockhampton in 1995. He had held the seat of Rockhampton North from 1989 until 1992, when his seat was abolished and he contested the new seat of Keppel. He lost to the National Party candidate.

Schwarten served as a minister in the Beattie and Bligh governments from 1998 to 2011, and stepped down from the ministry in February 2011.

In 2012, Schwarten retired and was succeeded by Labor’s Bill Byrne.

Candidates

  • Michelle Taylor (Greens)
  • Bill Byrne (Labor)
  • Sally-Anne Vincent (Family First)
  • Anne O’Connor (Independent)
  • Bridie Luva (Liberal National)

Assessment
Rockhampton is normally a safe Labor seat, and the ALP should have no trouble retaining the seat in 2015.

2012 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Bill Byrne Labor 11,002 39.79 -21.78
Gavin Finch Liberal National 8,781 31.76 +4.54
Shane Guley Katter’s Australian 3,507 12.68 +12.68
Bruce Diamond Independent 1,847 6.68 +6.68
Bronwen Lloyd Greens 954 3.45 -0.62
Genevieve Ellis Family First 734 2.65 +2.65
Diane Hamilton Independent 541 1.96 +1.96
Chris Hooper Independent 286 1.03 +1.03

2012 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Bill Byrne Labor 12,191 53.95 -13.97
Gavin Finch Liberal National 10,406 46.05 +13.97
Polling places in Rockhampton at the 2012 Queensland state election. Central in green, North in blue, South in orange. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Rockhampton at the 2012 Queensland state election. Central in green, North in blue, South in orange. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Rockhampton have been split into three parts: central, north and south.

The ALP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in the centre (54.5%) and the north (58.6%). The LNP won a slim 50.15% majority in the south.

The Labor primary vote ranged from 36.5% in the south to 42.9% in the north.

The LNP’s primary vote ranged from 27.5% in the north to 34.9% in the south.

Katter’s Australian Party came third, with a vote ranging from 11.8% in the centre to 13.8% in the south.

The Electoral Commission does not publish two-party-preferred figures by polling place, so two-party-preferred figures in the following table and map are estimates.

Voter group ALP prim % LNP prim % KAP prim % ALP 2PP % Total % of votes
North 42.89 27.52 12.36 58.55 9,620 34.79
South 36.47 34.93 13.84 49.85 6,696 24.22
Central 40.89 32.09 11.83 54.54 4,497 16.26
Other votes 37.94 34.39 12.56 51.21 6,839 24.73
Estimated two-party-preferred votes in Rockhampton at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Estimated two-party-preferred votes in Rockhampton at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Katter's Australian Party primary votes in Rockhampton at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Katter’s Australian Party primary votes in Rockhampton at the 2012 Queensland state election.

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