Mudgeeraba – Queensland 2015

LNP 25.93%

Incumbent MP
Ros Bates, since 2009.

Geography
South-East Queensland. Mudgeeraba covers the Gold Coast suburbs of Merrimac, Worongary, Mudgeeraba, Reedy Creek, the Robina Town Centre, and parts of Carrara. Mudgeeraba covers southern parts of the Gold Coast hinterland.

History
The seat of Mudgeeraba was first created at the 2001 election. The seat was held by the ALP from 2001 to 2009, and has been held by the Liberal National Party since 2009.

Dianne Reilly won the seat for the ALP in 2001. She was re-elected in 2004 and 2006, but lost to the LNP’s Ros Bates in 2009.

Bates was re-elected in 2012, and served as a minister from 2012 to 2013.

Candidates

Assessment
Mudgeeraba is a safe LNP seat.

2012 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Ros Bates Liberal National 16,534 61.69 +15.47
Aaron Santelises Labor 4,753 17.73 -21.10
Sally Spain Greens 2,056 7.67 +0.63
Kevin Swan Katter’s Australian 2,056 7.67 +7.67
Barrie Nicholson Family First 1,402 5.23 +1.41

2012 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Ros Bates Liberal National 17,707 75.93 +22.01
Aaron Santelises Labor 5,612 24.07 -22.01
Polling places in Mudgeeraba at the 2012 Queensland state election. North in green, South in blue. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Mudgeeraba at the 2012 Queensland state election. North in green, South in blue. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Mudgeeraba have been split into two parts: north and south.

Both the LNP and Labor polled more highly in the north than the south. Family First and the Greens polled higher in the south than the north.

On a two-party-preferred basis, the LNP polled 76% in the north and 75.8% in the south.

The Electoral Commission does not publish two-party-preferred figures by polling place, so two-party-preferred figures in the following table and map are estimates.

Voter group LNP prim % ALP prim % LNP 2PP % Total % of votes
South 60.93 17.66 75.76 13,615 50.80
North 62.52 18.21 75.98 5,569 20.78
Other votes 62.44 17.53 76.24 7,617 28.42
Estimated two-party-preferred votes in Mudgeeraba at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Estimated two-party-preferred votes in Mudgeeraba at the 2012 Queensland state election.

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