The Tally Room

Vic redistribution – final(ish) map finished

Ben Raue - June 25, 2018

The AEC announced its final decision for the Victorian federal redistribution on Wednesday. That day I published my new estimates of the margins, and I've now also finished my map of the new electoral boundaries. I am not 100% sure these are correct, because the...

Darling Range – results wrap

Ben Raue - June 24, 2018

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Yesterday's by-election in the Perth seat of Darling Range was undoubtedly a disappointment for Labor, with a swing of 9% after preferences, producing a reasonably comfortable victory for Liberal candidate Alyssa Hayden. A Reachtel poll last week predicted a 54-46 result in favour of Labor,...

Darling Range by-election live

Ben Raue - June 23, 2018

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Primary votes - 18/20 booths reporting Candidate Votes % Swing Russell Goodrick (WAP) 1389 5.8 5.8 Anthony Pyle (GRN) 1396 5.8 -1.9 Jehni Thomas-Wurth (AJP) 788 3.3 3.3 Alyssa Hayden (LIB) 8234 34.4 4.0 John Watt (FF) 102 0.4 0.4 Rod Caddies (ON) 1867 7.8 -0.9 Tania Lawrence (ALP) 7690 32.1 -9.4 Eric Eikelboom (CHR) 1128 4.7 0.3 Stuart Ostle (SFF) 1081 4.5 0.3 Doug Shaw (IND) 140 0.6 0.6 George O’Byrne (IND) 131 0.5 0.5 Two-party-preferred votes - 18/20 booths reporting Candidate Votes % Swing Alyssa Hayden (LIB) 12750 53.3 9.1 Tania Lawrence (ALP) 11169 46.7 -9.1 Sunday, 8:43am - We saw another batch of...

Podcast #1 – Darling Range and Liberal women

Ben Raue - June 22, 2018

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Here it finally is, the first episode of the Tally Room podcast. It was recorded earlier this week after an earlier attempt last week, with Stewart Jackson and Megan Clement-Couzner. We discussed a number of election news items, which involved a wide-ranging conversation about the...

Vic redistribution finalised – the end of Batman

Ben Raue - June 20, 2018

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The Australian Electoral Commission released the final decisions for the Victorian federal redistribution earlier today. Most of the changes were very minor, with no seats experiencing a large change in margin. The switch of Dunkley from Liberal to notional Labor has been maintained. We have...

Women in parliament – still marginal

Ben Raue - June 12, 2018

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There has been a lot of discussion recently about the lack of representation of women in the Liberal Party, and it got me thinking about what sort of seats tend to be represented by women. Do they tend to hold safer seats, or more...

More data – Tasmanian and SA state elections added

Ben Raue - May 30, 2018

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I've just added two more datasets to the Tally Room data repository. These datasets cover the results of the recent Tasmanian and South Australian state elections, including candidate lists, booth lists, and voting figures at the booth and seat level: South Australia 2018 Tasmania 2018 The...

Federal election guides – they keep coming

Ben Raue - May 29, 2018

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I've been continuing to post a seat guide every day recently, with fifteen more posted since I last posted on the front page. They tend to be safer Liberal seats, but there are still some interesting conversations: Hume Fairfax Durack Moore Tangney Fadden McPherson ...

Let’s do a podcast!

Ben Raue - May 25, 2018

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I've wanted to do a podcast for a while, but haven't been in a position to spend the time to do it properly. I think I'm pretty much there now, but I'm looking for some help with it. I have a plan to launch a...

New datasets – NSW councils and Tasmanian upper house

Ben Raue - May 24, 2018

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I've got a couple of new datasets now up on the website for you to use. I've now published the complete dataset from the 2017 NSW council election, including the list of candidates, the list of booths (including latitude/longitude) and the voting figures at the...