The Tally Room

I've recently finished adding a new feature to my seat guides for the Victorian and New South Wales state elections and I wanted to mention it. During the federal election, I produced charts showing how the two-party-preferred vote in each seat has shifted in each...

In yesterday's blog post I analysed the statistics from my latest Victorian election candidate update, but I wanted to pull out one thing to focus on. There are 32 independent candidates who have been announced so far. That's not a particularly high number (102 ran...

I've recently completed an update of my candidate list for the Victorian state election, and I'm now publishing the list for the first time. The list now includes 296 Legislative Assembly candidates and 89 Legislative Council candidates in 61 separate groups across the 8...

Sunday morning final update - So I think we will still get some declaration votes but the scale of the votes is likely to be far too few to change the outcome. 35 formal declaration votes were counted in Fannie Bay in 2020, whereas...

A lot of analysis of the recent federal election used aggregate data and made assumptions about individual voting trends, but now we have some data that can actually answer these questions. Ben is joined in this episode by Shaun Ratcliff from YouGov to discuss...

The Victorian Electoral Commission has recently published a report laying out their estimates of the two-candidate-preferred margins in every electorate for the upcoming Victorian state election, after taking account of the redistribution. I've previously published my own estimates, but I'm planning to substitute the VEC's...

There will be a by-election later this month in the Northern Territory electorate of Fannie Bay, covering parts of the northern suburbs of Darwin. The seat was held by former chief minister Michael Gunner, who resigned last month after stepping down from the leadership...