Fannie Bay by-election live


Sunday morning final update – So I think we will still get some declaration votes but the scale of the votes is likely to be far too few to change the outcome. 35 formal declaration votes were counted in Fannie Bay in 2020, whereas Labor currently leads by 148 votes. There may also be more postal votes – last time there were 377 formal votes, and this time there have been 233 formal votes. But I think it’s likely the number of postals has shrunk, both with a reduced turnout and a shift back to election day voting. Still, the trend in these votes would have to be dramatically bad for Labor for them to lose.

8:31 – The Parap booth’s two party preferred figure has now come in and Labor is on 52.2% after preferences overall, and I don’t see any other pools of votes waiting to report. Labor’s 2PP in Parap dropped from 64.4% to 55.7%, a swing of 8.7%. Also worth noting the Greens vote has increased from 10.2% to 19.4%.

7:52 – The main pre-poll booth has just reported and it has put the CLP candidate narrowly in front. The pre-poll swing was 7.8%, which is slightly greater than Ludmilla. The pre-poll vote is half as big as in 2020, so should be less important. It will all come down to Parap, but if the swing there is similar Labor should hold on narrowly.

7:02 – We have primary vote and two-candidate-preferred vote from Ludmilla, which is the smaller (much smaller) of the two election day booths. The Labor 2PP in this booth was 61.4% in 2020, and this time was 54.1%, which is a swing of 7.3%. If this is repeated elsewhere it won’t be enough to flip the seat, but it is a lot closer.

6:00 – Polls just closed in the by-election in the Northern Territory assembly electorate of ‘Fannie Bay. This seat was represented by former chief minister Michael Gunner, who resigned last month after retiring from the territory’s leadership earlier this year.

I’ve published a guide to the by-election. Gunner held the seat by a 9.6% margin in 2020. The seat covers suburbs in central Darwin and is a reasonably strong Labor seat, but Northern Territory electorates can throw up unusual results when incumbents retire.

This won’t be a big and complex election count – there are just two election day booths – but I will keep an eye on the result and update here once we know more.

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  1. Not over yet, Still will be absentees/postals to count even if there are fewer than the general election. Will be very close. ALP are claiming victory premature. and Antony Green hasn’t called the seat (even though he is on vacation)

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