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Lia Finocchiaro has announced that if the CLP is elected at the next election in August this year, the CLP will remove payroll tax for small businesses. The CLP are now the clear favourites to win.
The election is the CLP’s to lose and only a major gaffe from the CLP will save NT Labor.
@Ian exactly. And NT Labor have already had two Chief Ministers after Michael Gunner (although I’m a Liberal voter I must admit he was a good Chief Minister), first it was Natasha Fyles (the Left faction MP for Nightcliff who resigned after a shares scandal) and now it’s Eva Lawler (the Right faction MP for Drysdale who is now in big danger of losing her own seat). Fyles was deeply unpopular, and it seems like Lawler is too. On the other hand I haven’t heard much negative stuff about Lia Finocchiaro. She’s a young, moderate MP who helped the CLP get back on track in 2020 and now is the favourite to become Chief Minister in 2024. And I think that’s a good thing: she deserves to be Chief Minister and I think after Territory politics I think she should run for the seat of Solomon.
One thing is for sure: the federal and territory swings in Alice Springs and Katherine will be violently against Labor and to the CLP. Gunner’s personal popularity and the COVID incumbency effect somewhat stuck in 2020 but he’s gone now so the CLP should be able to make them very safe again.
I think Finocchiaro will win in a similar way Terry Mills did: by winning remote seats with high Indigenous populations, but I think it will also be mixed with a sweep of Palmerston and southern Darwin.
Agree NP and Ian, I can definitely see the CLP easily recovering some of their traditional Darwin and Palmerston seats like Blain (held by independent ex Labor MP Mark Turner), Port Darwin (held by Paul Kirby who is retiring) and Fong Lim. They are also likely to gain Goyder with independent and ex CLP MP Kezia Purick retiring there too.
The next tier of targets which are potential gains will be the remaining marginal rural seats (Daly, Arnhem and Arafura) along with Drysdale (Eva Lawler’s seat). The path for a CLP majority will involve winning at least one seat from this category in addition to the four above.
@Yoh An yeah I think Eva Lawler will lose her own seat.
Exactly. Labor will federally probably lose Lingiari as long as a good candidate is selected. Solomon is interesting since Labor holds is much safer than Lingiari but the CLP should have a good run.
Territory Labor will almost certainly lose Fong Lim, Port Darwin, Fannie Bay, and even Drysdale to the CLP. I think Arafura, Blain, Araluen and Daly will ‘lean’ to the CLP, barring any potential mishap. I think after the redistribution Karama will be very vulnerable, and Wanguri with a retiring MP might be a surprise. Per the CLP also holds all its seats, and winning all the aforementioned seats they could end up with 17 seats, which would be a wipeout. Goyder, held by an independent, will logically go back to the CLP, so 18 seats.
Then you have the Greens targeting four seats: Nightcliff, Fannie Bay, Araluen and Braitling. I don’t think the PV in Araluen and Braitling will be enough for a serious dent, especially since their original candidate in Araluen was disendorsed because of anti-Semitic comments. Nightcliff is a good chance considering Natasha Fyles’ scandal and her having almost disappeared into the backbench. The CLP could benefit. Fannie Bay will be close as I think Brent Potter is essentially cooked beyond saving. CLP have usually held Fannie Bay but the Greens garnered around 20% in the by-election, so any big rise and drop in Labor vote could give to the Greens but not confirmed yet at all.
The only seats I see Labor holding are Arnhem (unless an independent runs again which I haven’t heard about yet), Gwoja, Johnston, Casuarina, Sanderson and Nightcliff. Yingiya Mark Guyula will most likely retain Mulka, Robyn Lambley is a question mark since she is in a naturally CLP seat but she has good profile and is at least anti-Labor so she could hold but also lose.
Just my thoughts.