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The CLP are now officially the favourites to win the election!
I predicted they would and that bombshell poll from Redbridge last year did too. But the betting markets didn’t catch on (I rarely gamble though). But now I had a look and the CLP are now the favourites to win by both the bookies and the polls.
A calculator tells me that the CLP now have a 55.56% chance of winning according to the odds, while Labor has a 47.62% chance of winning. The gap has been closing for a while but now the CLP have taken the lead.
I trust polls and election analysts more than the bookies but if the bookies predicted every Australian election right then Labor would get a second term federally and a third term in WA while Coalition oppositions would defeat incumbent Labor governments in Queensland and the NT.
As for Queensland, the odds say the LNP now have an 84.75% chance of winning while Labor has just a 20.00% chance (note that betting odds always seem to go over 100%).
I wish Finocchiaro and Crisafulli the best of luck this year.