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Sitting independent MP Kezia Purick isn’t contesting in 2024, and with a 6.8% margin I predict the CLP should gain this seat.
With Andrew Mackay (CLP) a good chance of gaining Goyder for CLP, I predict that will help the opposition get to 11 seats, Labor manages 11 (maybe 12 at best) with the remaining 2-3 seats being independents. If Arnhem, Araluen and Mulka end up as independents, who are the independents likely to side with if the majors end up with 11 a piece? The Bookies seem to think CLP will get up, but I’m guessing a minority government is on the cards. Thoughts?
easy clp gain. new poll yesterday 54-46 to the CLP
Mark, I see the following seats as definite or near certain gains for the CLP: Port Darwin, Fong Lim, Blain and Goyder. I also expect the CLP to win at least one of these close contests: Drysdale, Arnhem, Arafura and Daly.
Therefore, the CLP will have at least 12 with 2 independents. There is greater chance of CLP winning a majority outright so even if the CLP fall short with 12, they will be in a stronger position to form government.
@yoh an arnhem will be a labor vs ind probably. Fannie Bay also posslble for CLP. il bet on CLP majority
At John, who conducted the poll? You have a link please? With a 54-46 being a nasty swing for the government, along with a fresh cabinet, civil unrest, inflation etc on the cards it would seem a 13 seat majority for CLP is looking likely. The x factor will be how many seats swing from Labor to Independents rather than CLP picking up the seats.
Fyles and Lawler are deeply unpopular. The CLP would form government easily. Eva Lawler should be scared about losing her own seat of Drysdale given the redistribution reducing her seat’s margin from fairly safe to marginal, plus the seat’s history (only one other Labor member has ever won Drysdale, and that was former Aussie rules player Chris Natt in 2005 when Labor won a landslide but he lost the seat in 2008).
This will be an easy gain too since Kezia Purick (the ex-CLP independent who currently holds this seat) is retiring. Plus it’s a rural seat and the CLP have always done very well up in the rural areas around Darwin and Palmerston (e.g Howard Springs and Humpty Doo), hence why they hold Nelson quite comfortably and always have.