Arnhem – NT 2024

ALP 0.8% vs IND

Incumbent MP
Selena Uibo, since 2016.

Geography
Top End. Arnhem covers a majority of Arnhem Land, stretching from Groot Eylandt and the eastern coast of the top end to the edge of Kakadu National Park, and south to the edge of Katherine.

Redistribution
Arnhem exchanged some territory with the seat of Mulka in the north-eastern corner of the electorate. These changes added a small number of votes from the independent seat of Mulka, cutting the Labor vs Independent margin in Arnhem from 1.6% to 0.8%.

History

The electorate of Arnhem was created in 1974 for the first Northern Territory assembly election. Labor held the seat continuously from 1977 until 2012.

Rupert Kentish won Arnhem in 1974 for the Country Liberal Party, holding the seat for one term.

Labor’s Bob Collins won Arnhem in 1977. He was elected Labor leader in 1981, and moved to the new seat of Arafura in 1983. Collins served as Labor leader until 1986. He resigned from Arafura in 1987 to run for the Senate. He served as a Senator for the Northern Territory until 1998.

Wes Lanhupuy succeeded Collins in Arnhem in 1983. He held the seat for twelve years until his death in 1995.

Labor’s Jack Ah Kit succeeded Lanhupuy in 1995. He held the seat until 2005, serving as a minister in the first Labor government after the 2001 election.

Labor’s Malarndirri McCarthy won Arnhem in 2005. She was re-elected in 2008 and became a minister after the 2008 election.

In 2012, McCarthy lost her seat to the CLP’s Larisa Lee. She returned to politics in 2016, elected to represent the Northern Territory in the Senate.

Lee resigned from the Country Liberal Party in 2014 to sit on the crossbench, mostly as an independent, although she briefly joined the Palmer United Party.

Arnhem was won in 2016 by Labor’s Selena Uibo, with Lee coming a distant fifth.

Uibo was re-elected in 2020.

Candidates
No information.

Assessment
Arnhem is a very marginal seat and could be under threat to a strong independent.

2020 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist %
Selena Uibo Labor 1,207 41.3 -8.6 41.2
Ian Mongunu Gumbula Independent 987 33.8 +33.8 31.6
Jerry Amato Country Liberal 487 16.7 -13.5 15.6
Lance Lawrence Independent 243 8.3 -2.6 7.8
Others 3.8
Informal 232 7.4

2020 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Redist %
Selena Uibo Labor 1,508 51.6 50.8
Ian Mongunu Gumbula Independent 1,416 48.4 49.2

Booth breakdown
There was only one ordinary polling place in Arnhem: a small booth on the border with Katherine. The ALP won 56% of the two-candidate-preferred vote there.

Almost two thirds of the vote was cast in mobile booths, with independents polling 50.6% in those mobile voting teams.

Labor won the pre-poll vote by a large margin.

Voter group ALP 2CP % Total votes % of votes
Mobile 49.4 2,214 65.9
Other votes 48.4 547 16.3
Pre-poll 58.6 522 15.6
Tindal 56.0 76 2.3

Polling places surrounding Arnhem at the 2020 NT election

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