To provide the best experiences, we use technologies like cookies to store and/or access device information. Consenting to these technologies will allow us to process data such as browsing behavior or unique IDs on this site. Not consenting or withdrawing consent, may adversely affect certain features and functions.
The technical storage or access is strictly necessary for the legitimate purpose of enabling the use of a specific service explicitly requested by the subscriber or user, or for the sole purpose of carrying out the transmission of a communication over an electronic communications network.
The technical storage or access is necessary for the legitimate purpose of storing preferences that are not requested by the subscriber or user.
The technical storage or access that is used exclusively for statistical purposes.
The technical storage or access that is used exclusively for anonymous statistical purposes. Without a subpoena, voluntary compliance on the part of your Internet Service Provider, or additional records from a third party, information stored or retrieved for this purpose alone cannot usually be used to identify you.
The technical storage or access is required to create user profiles to send advertising, or to track the user on a website or across several websites for similar marketing purposes.
Unlock with Patreon
This seat bucked the state trend last time I wonder if Labor continues to poll well if they can peal this seat off the Nationals.
Spacefish, Labor in most states have struggled to win these sorts of ‘regional’ seats off the Nationals. I probably see this seat like Morwell in Victoria or Burdekin in Queensland being dominated by the mining sector (a key primary industry). In these seats, despite Labor running suitable and strong candidates they have failed to get over the line even during favourable election years.
Upper Hunter in its past incarnation has always been a Nationals held seat, and even if Labor wins it will not form part of a durable majority. Labor is better off adding extra suburban seats and perhaps supporting a high profile independent for Upper Hunter and other rural seats.
Could see a pathway for Labor if One Nation run hard and there is vote splitting on the right?
Labor has actually never won this seat before even during the wranslide
This is the story of personal votes. Short of a landslide will remain nat held
The Nationals swing last election could’ve been the sophomore surge following the 2021 by-election.
The largest bet I placed in the 2019 election was for the Nationals to hold here. It seems there was an assumption that it would fall in 2019 just because it was the second-most marginal Coalition seat (after East Hills).
There has already been a lot of vote splitting here in recent times – SFF managed 22% in 2019, and the Nationals primary has been in the 30s since 2015.
If the nats can hold this in 2027 they should be able to hold afterthe redistribution
Give it about 10 years and upper Hunter will probably be unwinnable.
If Stuart Bonds were run here there is a chance he could win this seat for One Nation. I know in an interview he said that Once Nation would be focussing on this seat however he didn’t confirm if he was going to contest this upcoming state election.
At a State Level Climate change is not really a divide. Also i dont think ONP can knock Nats out of the 2CP
A strong ONP vote would split the vote but I don’t think it will knock the Nats out of the 2CP. For it to happen, the Nats would have to fall to 3rd place in the 3CP like at the federal election in Hunter. I doubt Labor would overtake the Nats on primary votes or the 3CP.
I noticed that last election, much of the booths in Singleton and Maitland LGAs swung to Labor whilst the rest swung to the Nationals.